Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, October 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Yulman Stadium — New Orleans, LA
- Spread: Tulane (-6.5)
- Over/under: 53.5
- All-time series: East Carolina leads, 12-8
- Last meeting: Tulane 13, East Carolina 10 — November 4, 2023
- Current streak: Tulane, 2 (2022-23)
Setting the scene
Thursday night football returns this week in the American Conference, and we’re treated to a matchup of conference contenders in New Orleans. East Carolina (3-2, 1-0 American) and Tulane (4-1, 1-0 American) both
strut into this matchup wielding spotless conference records with their eye on the prize to be awarded in December.
The Pirates are fresh off an elongated break after last playing Thursday, Sept. 25, and they eye their third-straight American road win dating back to last November. The Green Wave also received a Week 6 bye, and they entered their home venue having won 23 of their last 25 regular season conference matchups. Does ECU finally break through for a signature win or can Tulane pad its résumé with another impressive victory?
East Carolina Pirates outlook
East Carolina is 8-3 under head coach Blake Harrell, who operated as the interim for the final stretch of the 2024 campaign. The Pirates slipped up with a nightmare first half at NC State and a rough second half vs. BYU, but they’ve shown plenty of positives to prove they’re no pushover.
One positive is the emergence of Katin Houser, who is six yards away from serving as the American’s passing leader. Houser averages 302 yards per game and slings the pigskin with impressive efficiency, firing on a career-high 68.3 percent of attempts. The second-year Pirates brings verticality and explosiveness to an aerial offense which averages the 10th-most yards per game in the FBS.
Houser has three of the top nine receivers in the American at his disposal. Anthony Smith, Yannick Smith, and Brock Spalding all range from 320-352 receiving yards on the year, and any one of them is capable of going off on a given day. The Smiths are both 6’3” threats that present size mismatches and are no stranger to winning jump balls or out-muscling defenders. Meanwhile, Spalding has been a tremendous breakout story in his fourth year with the program, evolving from a seldom-used receiver to one of the team’s most consistent options.
As potent as the passing game has been, East Carolina has yet to match that production on the ground. No Pirate attained 60 rushing yards in any of the five outings, and they’ll continue to cycle through tailbacks London Montgomery, Marlon Gunn Jr., and Parker Jenkins until one catches fire.
While the run game is one facet that requires development, the offense’s most pressing issue is turnovers. ECU led the FBS in interceptions thrown a year ago, and the Pirates trail 4-1 in the turnover battle the last two games. A pair of turnovers in Army territory prevented the purple and gold from sealing the game earlier in Week 5, and those must be eradicated before facing an opportunistic Tulane defense.
However, ECU’s defense features similar opportunistic qualities. The Pirates rank in the FBS top 25 with nine takeaways on the year — with more than half originating from an impressive 38-0 shutout at Coastal Carolina. Six different Pirates have a forced fumble and six different Pirates have a fumble recovery, and they’re always on the prowl looking to jar the ball loose.
Another standout feature of this defense is its backfield invasion. ECU is tied for fourth nationally in tackles for loss per game with linebackers Dameon Wilson and Samuel Dankah regularly parading behind the line of scrimmage. Short-yardage runs aren’t easy on the Pirates which are incredibly gap sound and stuffed Army on five fourth down attempts in the conference opener.
Run defense, especially preventing quarterbacks from running, is an unquestionable strength — one which particularly comes in handy against Tulane. But the Pirates’ 26th overall yards per game defense isn’t too shabby against the pass. Free safety Ja’Marley Riddle operates as the leading tackler and brings five pass deflections and an interception into Thursday night’s game while. He makes a strong pairing on the back end with boomerang transfer Teagan Wilk, a strong safety back in Pirate colors after a brief detour in Houston.
Tulane Green Wave outlook
Tulane sees itself as every bit of a College Football Playoff contender. The Green Wave likely control their own destiny to qualify, and all they need is to do what they’ve done for three-straight years — qualify for the American Conference Championship Game. Tulane laid the recipe for a CFP bid by coasting to non-conference wins over Northwestern and Duke, although a blowout defeat at Ole Miss caused some concern. However, Jon Sumrall’s team recovered smoothly from Ole Miss, starting league play 1-0 behind a 31-14 thrashing of Tulsa.
One discovery Tulane possibly unearthed in the Tulsa game involved a potential No. 1 tailback. The Green Wave shuffled through a 4-man stable for the first five games, involving Maurice Turner, Zuberi Mobley, Arnold Barnes III, and Javin Gordon — and all four receive the services of a stout offensive line led by interior blockers Jack Hollifield and Shadre Hurst. Gordon shined against the Golden Hurricane with a team-high 78 yards and three touchdowns. However, Turner — who only has one carry since Week 1 due to injury — should be in his best shape since August and could be another prevailing option in the run game.
Tulane’s premier ground option does not play running back though. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff is the overwhelming leading rusher with 368 yards and seven touchdowns, ranking ninth and tied for first, respectively, among FBS quarterbacks in the categories. There are a slew of designed runs for the BYU transfer, but Retzlaff can also dart forward off any broken passing play, and defenders must be wary of his speed at all time.
As a passer, Retzlaff isn’t nearly as explosive as Katin Houser but takes sound care of the ball and avoids sacks to an impressive degree. He wields two touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year and averages 164 passing yards per game. The win over Duke proved he can push the ball downfield when needed to, and he’ll look toward Omari Hayes (a Florida Atlantic transfer with experience vs. ECU) in one-on-one coverage for speed mismatches. Shazz Preston and Bryce Bohanon are the other receivers that comprise of the majority of Tulane’s pass production.
Defensively, Tulane knows takeaways better than almost anybody else. The team that scored the most defensive touchdowns in the FBS a year ago is proving its ballhawking tendencies are no fluke, as the Green Wave rank fifth in average turnover margin and seventh in takeaways per game on the FBS scale. Javion White and Jaheim Johnson are among the most influential defensive backs in swinging those statistics, combining for five interceptions and nine pass breakups on the year.
While recording frequent interceptions is a positive, sometimes Tulane’s passing defense relies too heavily on takeaways as a crutch. The team ranks 112th in passing yards allowed per game and consistently allows downfield shots to opponents. The Green Wave sharpened their pass defense last game by simply generating more pressure at the line of scrimmage as Harvey Dyson III and Santana Hopper led a team effort that included six sacks and 13 tackles for loss at Tulsa.
Prediction
Unless East Carolina is subject to one of its turnover barrages — which the Green Wave are very good at causing — this has the makings of a close game in the Big Easy. The Pirates can exploit Tulane’s passing defense to an extent as Katin Houser has numerous downfield threats that the Green Wave must be wary of. Another potential advantage ECU could create involves stopping the QB run game, which it successfully did against the mobile quarterbacks NC State and Army presented.
However, if there is one things Tulane has mastered, it is entering conference matchups prepared. The Green Wave will have the backing of a raucous primetime crowd in this nationally televised event — and that crowd played a massive factor in upending Duke. One on-field areas where Tulane can manufacture a significant advantage is its d-line vs. ECU’s o-line. The Green Wave capitalized on this mismatch against Tulsa, and they’ll do so again in a narrow back-and-forth showdown.
Prediction: Tulane 27, East Carolina 24
