TCR Bracketology 3.0: Statement Wins for Illinois

Illinois fans, when the bracket is released on March 15, I want you to remember this Iowa game from Sunday afternoon. Specifically, remember the moment with six minutes left when Carver-Hawkeye Arena was

ready to blow the roof off, but Iowa missed a breakaway dunk and then a follow up three to cut the lead to two or three. Shortly after, Keaton Wagler stepped up and hit a huge three to extend the lead back to eight, and Illinois was able to do just enough to stave off Iowa’s comeback attempt. Who knows how the game turns out differently if Tavian Banks was able to put that dunk down, but I fully believe the Illini season turns out differently by getting this win.

Iowa is a very good team. They run precise offensive sets with counters and back cuts to get great looks, have a superstar, lottery pick point guard in Bennett Stirtz, and play a swarming style of defense that has other teams turning the ball over on 20% of plays. Carver-Hawkeye has been rejuvenated by an excellent coaching hire and got very loud in the second half as they made their run. Illinois jumped out to a big behind stifling defense, mainly by Kylan Boswell, on Stirtz. When Stirtz went to the bench with four fouls and Illinois up by 17, it seemed like the game was over, but Iowa got quick points off of turnovers and actually became more unpredictable without Stirtz on the court offensively, with Alvaro Folguieras running the show from the high post surrounded by shooters and cutters. Some clutch shot making down the stretch from Wagler and Boswell allowed the Illini to survive their best punch though, even with some questionable officiating in the last two minutes, and Illinois is now firmly in the hunt at the top of the Big Ten, with the confidence that they can go in and win on the road against the better teams in the Big Ten.

What does it mean for Illinois’ seeding? It is a quad 1A win, the best one on its resume so far. With Alabama losing at home to Michigan, and Michigan State having a non-descript week, it is enough to move Illinois to the bottom of the 3-line. Couple that with Michigan falling behind Iowa State for the Midwest Region due to their home loss to Wisconsin, and with the other complications of having five Big Ten and five Big 12 schools in the top 16 seeds, it actually allows Illinois to slide into the Midwest region and play Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games in Chicago.

West (San Jose)

Arizona (San Diego)
Nebraska (Oklahoma City)
Gonzaga (Portland)
Virginia (Tampa Bay)
Arkansas
Kansas
SMU
Saint Mary’s
USC
Auburn
Virginia Tech/Kentucky
McNeese
Hofstra
North Dakota State

Notes on the Region:

Kentucky hangs on by a thread as the last team in the bracket, after losing a home game to Mizzou last week. The preseason top-10 squad is competing with UCLA (first four out) as the biggest disappointment this year. One of the most expensive rosters in the country is deep, but the high potential players have underwhelmed besides Otega Oweh. If they can get past Chester Frazier, Amani Hansberry and Virginia Tech, they make the quick turnaround from Dayton to Portland for a matchup with Kansas that is usually reserved for the Elite Eight or later.

On the other side of the bracket, Arizona takes over the No. 1 overall seed following Michigan’s loss. Their second-round opponent will be interesting either way, and it will be against a California-based school in their home state. If USC goes through, you have the former Pac-12 rivals going at each other. USC has been hanging on in the Big Ten but took a big hit with Rodney Rice out for the season.

If Saint Mary’s wins, it gets even more interesting. Saint Mary’s is a consistently strong west coast school that the west coast powerhouses like Arizona and UCLA refuse to schedule out of fear of embarrassment. Both Saint Mary’s and Arizona have been on the vanguard of recruiting international talent before Bradimir made it cool. Saint Mary’s is led by Lithuanian stretch forward Paulias Murauskas, who actually started his career at Arizona. Lithuania (on both sides), Australia (on both sides), Canada (Saint Mary’s), Netherlands (Arizona), England (Arizona), France (Arizona), Senegal (Arizona), Germany (Arizona) and South Sudan (Arizona) would all be represented in this game. Arizona is probably too talented to go out this early, but Tommy Lloyd has had some March struggles at Arizona, and there are some Illinois-Loyola vibes to this one.

Midwest (Chicago)

Iowa State (Saint Louis)
Duke (Greenville)
Illinois (Philadelphia)
Alabama (Tampa Bay)
North Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
Miami
Indiana
Miami (Ohio)
Murray State
High Point
Wright State

Notes on the Region:

Illinois starts its run to the Final Four in Philly against Wright State. The Raiders are led by freshman guard Michael Cooper, who will likely be at a high major school next season. They specialize in taking away the three-point line (15th-fewest threes made per game allowed), but with only one 6-foot-9 player in their rotation, drives to the basket and offensive rebounds should be too much for the Horizon team to handle.

In the second round, Illinois either runs into a MAC team that is still undefeated at this point, or the defending national champions. The Gators turned their season around from the brink of disaster this week with blowout wins over both Georgia and Tennessee. Florida reportedly beat Illinois in a secret scrimmage this fall in Orlando, 96-86. There likely is very little to take away from that in an uncompetitive environment with both teams missing key players and rotating in deeper bench players. Florida is one of the only teams in the country that is taller and has a better rebounding rate than Illinois, but Boswell and Wagler should have the backcourt advantage over Xavian Lee and Boogie Fland.

In the Sweet 16, Illinois can get revenge for the embarrassment they suffered at the hands of Duke in Madison Garden last year. Cameron Boozer will be the headliner in this one. While not quite as hyped as Cooper Flagg, Boozer is a better college player than Cooper was and might be the frontrunner for National Player of the Year. It could be a let him get his, but shut everyone else down kind of situation, as Illinois looks to beat him and his brother in the house where his dad used to call home.

If Illinois can get past Duke, Iowa State would be the chalk opponent in the Elite Eight. Tamin Lipsey and Milan Momcilovic remain from the team Illinois beat in the Sweet 16 two years ago. Lipsey might be the best on ball defender in the country and will give Wagler a great test. Momcilovic has improved greatly since his freshman year and might be the best shooter in the country, making almost four threes a game at a ridiculous 55% clip. As impressive as they both are, their best player is actually Joshua Jefferson, a Saint Mary’s transfer power forward who can do a bit of everything inside and out, averaging 17.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.9 blocks. He is what Illinois fans dream David Mirkovic can become in a couple of years.

East (Washington D.C.)

Michigan (Buffalo)
Vanderbilt (Greenville)
BYU (Portland)
Texas Tech (San Diego)
Utah State
Louisville
Seton Hall
Saint John’s
Texas A&M
Wisconsin
Oklahoma State
Liberty
Utah Valley
Hawaii

Notes on the Region:

Wisconsin jumps from well outside of the bracket all the way past the play-in games thanks to victories over UCLA and, more importantly, at Michigan this week. They are a shallow team, but its top three of Nick Boyd, John Blackwell, and Nolan Winter can hang with very good teams like Michigan, and Aleksas Bieliauskas stepped up to push them over the top in that one.

Three teams from Utah in the region is a strange quirk. If Utah Valley can somehow pull an upset of Texas Tech, a Utah State vs. Utah Valley matchup would be in the cards. BYU is the serious contender of the Utah teams and would have an exciting second round lottery pick matchup between AJ Dybantsa and Mikel Brown. In the Sweet 16 the winner of that game could get undefeated Vanderbilt, who is starting to look more and more real with every game they win, most recently in a shootout over Alabama.

South (Houston)

UConn (Philadelphia)
Purdue (Saint Louis)
Houston (Oklahoma City)
Michigan State (Buffalo)
Clemson
Villanova
UCF
Saint Louis
Iowa
NC State
New Mexico/Mizzou
South Florida
Yale
East Tennessee State

Notes on the Region:

Mizzou sneaks into the bracket as the second-to-last team, having beaten Kentucky and Florida recently. The play-in pits an awful defensive team (Mizzou) against an awful offensive team (New Mexico). The winner has a decent chance to beat Villanova.

The highlight of the bracket is a potential Sweet 16 repeat between Purdue and Houston. Houston won it on a beautiful inbounds play last year with 0.9 seconds left on the clock. Houston was able to hold an explosive Purdue offense to just 60 points last year, and while Braden Smith did get 15 assists, if he scores just 7 points again it would likely signal a disappointing end to an incredible college career.

UConn and Michigan State surprisingly haven’t met in March since Shabazz Napier led UConn to the title in 2014, with UConn squeaking past Michigan State in the Elite Eight. Michigan transfer Tarris Reed gets one last chance to beat his formal rival in a battle of top five defenses.