2025-2026 Season
Overall Record: 14-47
Big 10 Record: 2-3
Previous 3 Games
1/11: L – 69-75 vs Illinois @ Home
1/6: L – 67 – 70 vs Minnesota @ Away
1/3: W – 74 – 61 vs UCLA @ Home
Iowa Personnel
Starters
Bench
Key Analytics
(Per KenPom.com – National Rank in ())
KenPom Ranking – 21
Offense
Adjusted Efficiency: 120.5 (32)
Adjusted Tempo: 64.4 (339)
Average Possession Length: 18.9 (335)
Effective Field Goal%: 58.4 (12)
Offensive Rebound%: 32.7 (130)
Three Point%: 36.5 (50)
Two Point %: 60.9 (10)
Defense
Adjusted Efficiency: 97.5 (19)
Adjusted Tempo: 64.4 (339)
Average Possession Length: 17.9 (287)
Effective Field Goal%: 48.8 (96)
Offensive Rebound%:
28.6 (88)
Three Point%: 30.2 (46)
Two Point %: 50.9 (162)
Purdue Advantages
Adjusted Efficiency
Purdue Offense: 129.5 (1)
Iowa Defense: 97.5 (19)
Notes
Purdue continues to beat the scoring drum with brutal efficiency. Braden gets his hands on the ball and figures out the easiest way to make it go in the basket. That’s the object of the game.
Iowa’s defense is good at forcing misses and creating turnovers, but not elite. Purdue is an elite shot-making team and treats the ball with the care and respect it deserves. This is strength vs strength, and I’m taking the Boilermaker offense.
Effective FG%
Purdue Offense: 59.4 (7)
Iowa Defense: 48.8 (96)
Notes
This is the chink in the Hawkeyes’ defensive armor. Braden Smith creates wide-open shots, and Purdue knocks them down at an impressive rate. When they do happen to miss an open shot, Oscar Cluff and TKR are frothing at the mouth for offensive rebounds and putbacks.
Iowa wants to play super slow, force turnovers, and grind out games with offensive efficiency. They don’t have much rim protection, but they’re solid at getting out to the three-point line, making teams beat them two points at a time.
Purdue can beat teams two points at a time with TKR and Cluff dominating the paint.
Offensive Rebounding %
Purdue Offense: 39 (12)
Iowa Defense: 28.6 (89)
Notes
This is where Purdue wins the game. Cluff, TKR, and Jacobson can hit the offensive glass. Talk about Iowa being stuck between a rock and a hard place in this game. They want to play as slow as possible on offense, but that means Purdue’s front court can hit the glass with reckless abandon without worrying about the Hawkeyes getting out and trying to run.
Cluff and TKR should eat tonight, assuming Purdue misses an occasional shot.
Iowa Advantages
Effective FG %
Iowa Offense: 58.4 (11)
Purdue Defense: 47.9 (62)
Notes
This Iowa team should look familiar to Purdue. They’re essentially the Boilermakers without a dominant front court. They play slowly, put the ball in Bennett Stirtz’s hands, and let him run the show late in the clock. He either finds a solid shot for himself or one of his teammates at the end of the shot clock.
Purdue’s defense didn’t cover itself in glory against Penn State. Iowa’s going to make the Boilermakers work hard on the defensive end, and Stirtz will punish any defensive mistakes. If Iowa hits shots, this game will be close because possessions will be at a premium. If Purdue cranks up the defense and Iowa starts missing shots, Iowa can’t win this game.
Two Point %
Iowa Offense: 60.9
Purdue Defense: 49.9
Notes
Once again, this is the Bennett Stirtz effect. He has the ball late in the clock, and he finds good shots. That’s it, that’s how Iowa plans on winning this game. If you enjoy up-tempo, free-flowing basketball, you may want to up your caffeine intake today, because this thing is going to flow like pudding.
I think Daniel Jacobson could have a major impact for Purdue in this game because rim protection and bothering mid-range shots is the name of the defensive game for the Boilermakers in this one.
Key Stat
Turnover Percentage
Purdue Offense: 14.4 (36)
Iowa Defense: 22.9 (6)
Notes
Iowa has figured out a neat trick: if you limit possessions by running your efficient offense late in the clock and create turnovers on defense, teams don’t get enough shots up to beat them (insert Purdue and Iowa spiderman “pointing at each other” doppelganger meme).
The good news for Purdue is Braden Smith. I don’t think I need to say anything else. If Iowa can’t turn Purdue over, they can’t win, and I don’t think they can turn Purdue over.
Brief Thoughts
If styles make fights, this fight would be for boxing purists and not for mass consumption. These are two plodding, technical teams that don’t throw many punches, but the punches they do throw land with bad intentions. These two teams are going to circle each other and carefully pick their shots.
I see this as a game of elite vs good.
Iowa’s good at executing this game plan, but Purdue is historically good at executing the exact same game plan. Bennett Stirtz is one of the best point guards in the Big 10, and Braden Smith is the best point guard in the nation.
Ben McCollum has built a solid efficiency machine in Iowa City and has preyed on inefficient teams. Matt Painter has built an efficiency juggernaut that chews up and spits out otherwise good basketball teams. There are levels to this game, and Purdue is on a different level.
You can’t out-efficiency Matt Painter and Braden Smith, but I’m interested in watching Iowa try. If Purdue has a cold shooting night, this thing could be close late.
Predictions
KenPom
Purdue: 76
Iowa: 67
Drew
Purdue: 84
Iowa: 67
I envision the game going a little something like this:
It’s close early, with both teams taking the air out of the ball and executing late in the shot clock. At some point in the first half, Purdue will hit one of its patented runs and build up a 7-to-9-point lead. Then the game will go back to a bucket exchange, but Iowa won’t be able to cut into the lead.
At some point, the Hawkeyes are going to get antsy and realize that trying to out-execute Purdue is like trying to be more depressing than Indiana basketball. Once that happens and they pick up the pace, this game gets out of hand. The neat thing with this Purdue team is that they can play fast but choose not to; Iowa has to play slow to win.
I’ll take Purdue to win and cover in this one.
