The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) are back at EverBank Stadium to face the New England Patriots (1-1) in Week 3. The teams last met in Week 7 of the 2024 season, when Tank Bigsby rushed for a career-high 118 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 34-16 Jags win at Wembley Stadium.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Jaguars are 2.5-point favorites against the Patriots this week. Home-field advantage is generally worth a 3-point swing, so on a neutral field, Jacksonville would be 0.5-point underdogs. I have a feeling
that’s the mentality the team will be operating with anyway after last week’s narrow loss at Mile High.
Let’s get to some predictions.
Prediction #1
Did you know that the Jaguars were 11-1 last season when Brenton Strange played? He was a pillar of Liam Coen’s offense, and Jacksonville secured him on a long-term extension in the offseason.
Though two games this year, Strange only has 4 catches (5 targets) for 40 yards and 1 touchdown.
Total.
There may be “a lot of mouths to feed” between Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers in the wide receiver room, but Trevor Lawrence already has 52 pass attempts. That equates to a 9.6% target share for Strange so far. When healthy last season, he had a 16% target share.
Good news: this underwhelming box-score start is nothing to fret about. Strange is due for work in the passing game, and not just because of natural regression after a small sample of games. He ran crisp routes against the Broncos in Week 2, but for various reasons, Lawrence wasn’t looking his way a few times when he popped wide open.
I think the team could see that on tape and say, “Oh, yeah. We just paid this guy because we think he’s really good. Maybe we should try to get him the ball more often.”
If/when New England’s interior pass rush disrupts Lawrence on Sunday, it’ll be even more of a reason to lean into short-area passing concepts featuring Strange.
The prediction: Brenton Strange matches his current 2026 receiving stats
Strange has +300 odds on FanDuel to score a touchdown, and his receiving yardage over/under line is set at 27.5 yards.
Prediction #2
Jacksonville’s run defense has merely been above average this season after being the league’s best in 2025. The fact that the Broncos ran free for 1st downs to clinch last week’s game was alarming, to say the least.
Expect the Jaguars to tighten up against a Patriots offense that wants to run the ball but isn’t all that threatening when it does. While Rhamondre Stevenson is among the most underappreciated rushers in football, he’s a jack-of-all-trades with no elite traits and a real issue holding onto the rock. And while 2025 second-round pick TreVeyon Henderson is among the most explosive rushers in football, he requires a wide-open rushing lane to inflict maximum damage. How valuable is a slugger if he can only connect on fastballs down the middle?
New England’s running back room is solid yet unremarkable. Their starting offensive line looked promising to start the season, but right guard Mike Onwenu fractured his ankle in Week 2.
Jacksonville ought to shut down the opposing running game, the same way they did so many times last season, but the real question is whether they can contain a dual-threat quarterback. Can the Jags prevent out-of-structure playmaking from last year’s MVP runner-up?
The prediction: Drake Maye leads the Patriots in rushing yards
On FanDuel, Maye’s rushing yards over/under line is set at 26.5 yards. Stevenson’s line is at 37.5 yards; Henderson’s line is at 41.5 yards.
Prediction #3
Josh Hines-Allen has played 112 NFL games (including playoffs). Last week’s loss in Denver was just his seventh career game without recording a pressure.
According to NFL Pro, Hines-Allen has a career-low 9.3% so far this season. He recorded a double-digit pressure rate in each of his seven prior seasons.
Jacksonville’s pass rush was already a concern going into this season, mostly because of the apparent lack of depth behind Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. If Hines-Allen isn’t playing like a No. 1 guy, the Jags could be screwed!
Fortunately, like Strange, I expect Hines-Allen to bounce back. It feels like we do this every season — he goes through a dry spell, then fans scapegoat him for a holistic roster issue, then he eventually re-finds his dominance.
After posting a Tony Snell stat line against All-Pro left tackle Garrett Bowles, Hines-Allen has a great opportunity to turn his season around on Sunday against Will Campbell.
The Patriots’ 2025 first-round pick probably isn’t as bad as he’s publicly perceived after a rocky rookie postseason — and his stats this year are actually pretty solid — but at the end of the day, Campbell should have trouble handling Hines-Allen one-on-one. The former has T-Rex arms and a poor anchor. The latter tends to feast against inferior competition.
Remember those “Have a Day!” social media graphics the NFL used to post? If they were still doing that, I’d bet Hines-Allen would have one after playing the Patriots.
The prediction: Josh Hines-Allen records a sack, a tipped pass, and a turnover
Let us know your Week 3 predictions in the comments below!
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