It’s hard to look at a game like Sunday’s dispassionately, but that is what we are called to do in this segment. The By the Numbers segment looks at the numbers of NFL games to predict which categories will lead most to success and failure. Some of the numbers may surprise you when you look at a 36-29 result. In point of fact, the game was a 30-29 game for all effect and purposes.
As we do in most wins, we will look at the great, good, and bad in this one. The other three Texans victories were effectively
blowouts where there was very little negative that could be taken from the game. That wasn’t the case in this one as the Texans trailed 17-0 early on and 29-10 in the third quarter. Some very negative things happened to get them to that point.
The Numbers
- Total Yards: Texans 69/412, Jaguars 55/213
- Rushing Yards: Texans 22/130, Jaguars 27/94
- Passing Yards: Texans 47/282, Jaguars 28/119
- Return Yardage: Texans 4/79, Jaguars 8/250
- Sacks: Texans 5, Jaguars 2
- Third Downs: Texans 10/15, Jaguars 4/11
- Turnovers: Texans 2, Jaguars 2
- Penalties: Texans 11/80, Jaguars 9/90
- Time of Possession: Texans 31:00, Jaguars 29:00
Don’t let the score fool you. This was mostly a defensive battle for three quarters of the game. The Jaguars got seven points off of a punt return and ten points gift wrapped on turnovers deep in Texans territory. Sure, they could have held them to a field goal on the second one, but the Texans offense and special teams all but spotted them 17 points to start the game.
The fact that the Texans clearly outplayed them in two games and finished 1-1 is a tiny microcosm of what has gone wrong this season. Heck, they needed a miracle to win this one. We certainly can get to this in the great, good, and bad, but this has been a hallmark of the Ryans’ regime. He wins most of his games and for that we are grateful, but the wins come a lot harder than they should.
The Great
This is the best defense in the NFL. Full stop. They lead the NFL in the only category that really matters (points allowed) but they make opposing quarterbacks miserable every Sunday. Daniele Hunter had his best game as a Texan and that is saying something considering the numbers he has put up the last year and a half. He took over the game in the fourth quarter and single-handedly caused one three and out on his own. Will Anderson wasn’t far behind and Sheldon Rankins did have the fumble/interception for the pick six at the end.
We cannot underscore this enough. That comeback is impossible if the Texans defense doesn’t force three three and outs in a row. With their kicker, Jacksonville could have gotten two first downs at the very end of the game and erased the entire comeback effort. Give Davis Mills his flowers (and we will) but this win doesn’t happen without the defense single-handedly deciding they were going to drag the offense over the finish line. They could have thrown in the towel in the third quarter, but they kept fighting.
We should probably also bring up Derek Stingley who had his best game of the season. The one-handed interception before half-time kept three points off the board and he had a couple of other brilliant pass breakups as well. His season has been largely up and down, but he quietly has three picks at the half-way point of the season which matches Kamari Lassiter. They are the best corner tandem in football.
The Good
The masthead chat line will provide the goods on this one. We were ready to write Mills off in the first half of this game. He absolutely deserves a hat tip for gutting it out and turning in one of the better performances of any backup quarterback in the league this season. He earned his money yesterday. Now, let’s be realistic here. He still missed some throws and held the ball too long in some instances. He doesn’t have elite athleticism or elite arm talent. Great defenses will expose him.
The goal of any backup quarterback is to finish with a .500 record in the games where the starter can’t go. keep your team in the game and your playoff hopes alive. That’s the bar. He absolutely met the bar, so having him under contract for another season becomes a good thing, Everyone on offense (except Christian Kirk) contributed to this one in some for or fashion. It was an ensemble approach that Nick Caserio probably dreamed up when he put this team together.
In particular, I have to give some kudos to Nick Caley. I’m not ready to take back everything I’ve said to date, but for this one game he followed the flow of the game and put in the guys most likely to make plays. You silence the critics by stacking positive performances together. He has never been able to have back to back strong games to date. If he can stack another one next week then he might start climbing out of the doghouse. However, it will be the next time he faces a good defense that will tell the tale.
The Bad
The article says bad, but we may have to switch this to ugly. I don’t normally include return yardage in my statistical breakdown because it rarely ever makes a huge difference one way or another. This was easily the worst special teams performance by the Texans this season and it almost cost them the game. In addition to the punt return for the touchdown, you had a personal foul on a field goal attempt, and three other lengthy returns that forced the defense to make big plays to prevent more points.
I thought Frank Ross was going to decapitate someone on the spot following some of those gaffes. If his tenure is any indication, we will not see those problems again next week. He is as solid as they come as a coordinator. However, that performance is just another symptom (along with the penalties) that there is usually something with this team that keeps them from totally dominating an opponent. It’s how a team that has allowed the least points in football can have a losing record. It’s how a team that outgains its opponent two to one can play a squeaker. I’ll never trash a coach following a win, but I also won’t ignore in a win what I would harp on in defeat.
