The Steelers are 6-2 and hold sole possession of the AFC North as they enter a Week 9 bye.
But stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The second half of Pittsburgh’s schedule looks quite a bit harder than the first.
Or does it?
After facing the Falcons, Patriots, Bengals, Browns (twice), Colts, Buccaneers and Saints before the bye, Pittsburgh has played in four games where its opponent would have a winning record at midseason, losing to New England (now 5-3), defeating Cincinnati (now 5-2), and splitting
its series with Cleveland (5-3).
After the bye, the Steelers face the Bengals again, along with the Eagles (2-6), Broncos (6-2), Texans (2-5), Jaguars (5-2), Ravens (4-4; twice), Panthers (3-4) and Titans (1-7).
At first glance, it’s a harder stretch than the first. The Jaguars, and maybe even the Broncos, are better than anyone the Steelers have played so far. The Panthers, despite their poor record, might be the best team in a hapless NFC South lineup. The Texans are 2-1 over the last three weeks despite a 0-4 start to the year, and we all know the Ravens will play the Steelers tough no matter the circumstances.
But that group of teams looks weaker than it did before the season started, no?
Of the Steelers’ final nine opponents, only three currently have winning records. (Although it’s worth mentioning two matchups against the currently-.500 Ravens).
And if we compare the combined midseason winning percentages of the Steelers’ first eight opponents (0.484) to their last nine (0.471), it’s incredibly close.
Similarly, while the Steelers didn’t face starting quarterbacks against the Falcons and Buccaneers earlier this season, they won’t either for the upcoming Eagles game (likely Joe Milton under center) and at least one of the Ravens games (likely Jacoby Brissett until Lamar Jackson possibly returns).
Of course, there are far more factors in play than just records and starting quarterbacks — and it’s an unfortunate truth of football that all the teams mentioned in this article will likely have some new, meaningful injuries between now and Week 18. And while the Steelers have the same number of games in Pittsburgh (four) in each half of the season, it’s worth noting that the team’s next five matchups are outside of the usual 1 p.m. EST Sunday time slot.
You could definitely argue the Steelers’ second-half schedule is going to be more difficult than the first; I probably would. But the difference isn’t as extreme as you might expect.
That’s good news for the Steelers, who already have a 77% postseason probability per NFL.com, currently the AFC’s third seed at 6-2.
Pittsburgh’s road to the playoffs remains a promising one entering the bye week.
