Arsenal head off to Germany for the week’s marquee European tilt as they take on reigning Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich for the third Champions League league phase match.
The Gunners have once again found themselves under the microscope. Last season, it was their egregious and offensive set piece prowess that had people clutching pearls and making alternate league tables without set piece goals. Now, it’s a much simpler issue – their lack of goal scoring in general.
“One-Nil to the Arsenal” has
been embedded in the club’s DNA since the days of George Graham, but their recent knack for close matches has made them the focus of criticism for not being clinical enough. It’s a fair enough assessment that more than a few Arsenal fans would agree with, but 10 wins from 11 matches has papered over those cracks because winning, as always, cures all.
The Champions League has been slightly more fruitful for Mikel Arteta’s side after last week’s 3-0 win against Lille. But the test Bayern pose is a massive one, and the hosts will be motivated to make up for last season’s 1-3 loss at the Emirates in the league phase on the heels of an unusually poor result last week. Their attack is red hot, their roster is deep, and they will be ready. Can Arsenal find success and, more importantly, find some goals on the road and under the bright lights in what will be the week’s top tilt?
Know the Enemy
Domestic record: 4W-2D-0L (1st)
CL League Phase record: 1W-1D-0L (10th)
Things are going as you’d expect for the Bavarian giants in the Bundesliga, where they sit atop the German top flight table. They are tied with Borussia Dortmund with 14 points, but have an absurd (but totally believable) +17 goal difference. In a league where it’s typically a one-horse race, they have yet to pull away. Just give it time.
Bayern began their CL campaign with a 5-0 thrashing of last season’s Cinderellas Bodo/Glimt before they were caught off guard by Norwegian side Viking FK last week, playing to a shock 3-3 draw. They clawed back from a 2-0 deficit to take a 3-2 lead before the Norse side equalized with a penalty in the 90th minute.
The biggest moment from that match, though, was the quick double yellow for star winger Michael Olise. After a yellow for a clumsy challenge, he made the inexplicable decision to toss the ball at the head of a Viking player in direct sight of the ref, who gave him his marching orders. It was a harsh sending off, but it means that he will miss the match on Wednesday.
No matter. The reigning Bundesliga champions are once again stocked to the gills with attacking talent and have been scoring for fun. Harry Kane is firing on all cylinders as he chases a possible Balon D’or, bagging 7 so far this season. Meanwhile, Luis Diaz continues to enjoy his post-Liverpool life with 5 goals this season. Olise also has 7 to his name, but his absence robs the German titans of one of their most potent weapons.
How Bayern can win
Find the net early.
There is slow, and then there’s the Gunners’ attack. Arsenal have failed to score a first half goal in 2/3 of their matches this season, and despite winning all but one match, it has been a major point of concern. For Bayern to tilt the match in their favor, the easiest way will be to hit the Gunners first. They have more than enough talent to do so, and they have scored at least two goals in all but one match this season. If the Gunners are forced to play catch up on the road, its will be a steep hill to climb.
How Arsenal can win
Win the midfield battle.
Arsenal’s defense and keeper play have once again been their strength. Stopping Bayern will be a tough challenge, but they did it well enough last season at the Emirates. It’s the midfield, though, that has the potential to make or break the match for the Gunners.
In every win this season, Arsenal’s midfield had the lion’s share of the ball and dictated the pace of play. At Brighton, their inability to control the middle of the pitch meant the defense were caught on their heels time and time again as the Seagulls’ press kept the midfield from slowing the match down. Giving Ødegaard space to operate in and Rice lanes to carry the ball will be key to opening the pitch and, hopefully, lead to more chances. The matter of finishing them is another issue altogether.
Injuries & Suspensions
Arsenal came out of Sunday’s match without any new knocks, niggles, or injuries to speak of. Success!
The usual suspects remain out, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. William Saliba is projected to be another month out as he recovers from his back injury. Christos Tzolis looks to be on track for an early November return from his hamstring, while Piero Hincapie is not far behind.
OUT: William Saliba (back), Piero Hincapie (ankle), Christos Tzolis (hamstring).
DOUBT: n/a
Predicted Lineup
Attack: Madueke, Havertz, Saka
The attack put in yet another turgid display at Forest. Some of that is credit to the opposition, but there is also the reality that the side just isn’t clicking in the final third.
Noni Madueke came on and changed the game with his directness and willingness to carry the ball into the box. He is an imperfect player, but he added the needed spark and scored the match winner. He’s quietly had a pretty decent season. If he can raise his passing and finishing game, he will hit new heights.
Outside of putting an uncontested header over the bar, Kai Havertz was exceptionally anonymous at Forest. Viktor Gyökeres looked more spry and physical late on, and though he failed to change the scoreline, his physicality made it hard for the Forest defense in the final 25 minutes. And yet, it’s probably gonna be Kai. He’s been Arteta’s favorite and I just don’t see that changing, form be damned.
Likewise, Saka was not terribly impressive at the City Ground. He got doubled teamed a lot, but didn’t really do enough to take advantage of Neco Williams being on an early booking. Unless Arteta really thinks it best to shake things up, Saka starts the big matches.
Midfield: Rice, MLS, Ødegaard
Arteta gave Myles Lewis-Skelly the day off against Forest, which was a bit unusual. However, there’s little reason to suspect he has dropped the Hale End grad for anything other than rotation. He’s been heavily involved this season, and keeping him fresh for the Allianz is a prudent move. He lives for the big matches.
Declan Rice and Martin Ødegaard are always going to be the first names on the team sheet in big matches. Rice notched another assist for a match-winner when he found Noni on the edge of the box for his second half decider. Martin was ok, but found it hard to break down a Forest defense sitting all 11 players behind the ball. It stands to reason that he will find a little more success against a Bayern side that will play more open on Wednesday.
Defense: Calafiori, Gabriel, Konsa, Timber
The defense that ended the match on Sunday is the one that I see Arteta rolling out at the Allianz. With Piero Hincapie out, Arteta could start MLS at the left back, but his energy and press resistance is too valuable to not start him in the middle of the park. Without any other LB analogue, Riccardo Calafiori is set to get a rare midweek start.
Arteta’s decision to start Ben White on Sunday all but ensures that Jurrien Timber will start on Wednesday. He was sharp against Forest and set up Rice for what should have been the opener. His goal against Lille was pure class, and he looks like he is nearing his best once again.
Gabriel and Ezri Konsa are looking better with each match. Konsa in particular has been stepping up superbly in Saliba’s absence. His late block after closing down Liam Delap was inch-perfect, even if he did initially lose track of the striker for the through ball.
Keeper: Raya
David Raya displayed his elite ball-claiming skills against a Forest side that had 8 corners on the night. He wasn’t really tested by their attack, but he was everywhere he needed to be. He’ll no doubt be much busier against Bayern, but he keeps teams honest and doesn’t give up much for free.
WHO: Arsenal at Bayern Munich
WHAT: Champions League league phase match day 3
WHEN: Wednesday, October 21st, 3:00pm EST/12:00pm PST/8:00pm GMT
WHERE: The Allianz Arena, Munich
HOW TO WATCH: Streaming on the Paramount+ app
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