Look, we all agree that it’s absurdly early to try to predict whether the Falcons will win every game on their 2026 schedule, but that’s never stopped us before.
With a fairly well-balanced schedule that gets easier late after a rough, primetime-heavy opening stretch, the Falcons have a slate that they can manage if they’re good enough to do so. There’s no super-early bye week or cross-country travel repeatedly over the course of a month to gripe about here, so the fortunes of the 2026 team won’t
be chalked up to the schedule.
I will go a step further than my usual caveats. When we predicted records last May after the schedule release, we knew the coaching staff pretty well after 2024, we knew the shape of the roster and had seen most of the players who were going to make an impact in some capacity, and so forth. This year we have a new general manager, a new head coach and offensive coaching staff, and a roster that has heavily churned with draft picks and free agents on short-term deals. We also have a quarterback battle between two players who have been crushed by injuries throughout their careers; all that adds up to a degree of uncertainty that makes this guesswork even more speculative than usual.
But let’s do it for fun, regardless, and I want to hear your predictions for the schedule after you read mine.
Week 1: Falcons @ Steelers: Loss
The Falcons don’t have history on their side here, as they’re just 2-16-1 against Pittsburgh all-time. The Steelers increasingly look like a shell of their once-proud selves and they don’t have Mike Tomlin around to drag them to the playoffs, but in Week 1 with so many unknowns and their ongoing difficulties against Pittsburgh and especially at Pittsburgh, right now I’m saying a loss.
Am I going to talk myself into the Falcons winning this game, especially when Aaron Rodgers looks 52 years old this summer and Drew Allar throws the worst interception you’ve ever seen in a preseason game? Yeah, probably.
Week 2: Falcons vs. Panthers: Win
We’re likely in for a profoundly dumb game, because the Falcons and Panthers have been providing us with lopsided losses, rain-marred slugfests, and weird last second twists of fate for a while now. While Bryce Young has been annoyingly great against Atlanta, the Panthers have lost their first two games of the season four years running, and Young is a notoriously slow starter who has a 7/8 TD/INT ratio and 59% completion percentage in September, compared to a positive TD/INT ratio in every other month and a higher completion percentage in every other month but December. It’s not hard to imagine the Falcons, who have been rebounding well after ugly first weeks, taking this one at home.
Week 3: Falcons @ Packers: Loss
Unfortunately, I have a hard time believing in a road primetime win against Green Bay at this stage, given that the high variance Packers are still one of the NFC’s better teams. Will I feel differently if the summer looks promising and the Falcons come out swinging in the first two weeks? Absolutely. Right now? Not so much.
Week 4: Falcons @ Saints: Win
Like I’d predict a loss to the Saints, especially in primetime. New Orleans will be better, but I don’t buy that they’ll be good, especially because Tyler Shough is getting the kind of hype that seems to precipitate a crash after he was better than anticipated in his rookie season. The Falcons are definitely more talented than the Saints, so it really is just a question of showing up on the road under the lights.
Week 5: Falcons vs. Ravens: Loss
The Ravens have been a little shaky the past couple of seasons, but I still view them as one of the league’s potential juggernauts in 2026 with a coaching staff shakeup, improvements to the roster, and both Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry still on the team. The Falcons haven’t beaten Baltimore since 2010, and with Jesse Minter likely to get more out of this defense to go with a still potent offense, I’m not optimistic.
Week 6: Falcons vs. Bears: Loss
Chicago has Caleb Williams, the league’s preeminent fourth quarter magician, and a great coach/psycho in Ben Johnson. I think the Bears might be worse record-wise than last year, but I also think they’re going to be a very tough out. This game will almost certainly go down to the wire if the Falcons show up, but Bears devil magic makes me give them the edge.
Week 7: Falcons vs. 49ers: Win
The 49ers will be tough, too, but I didn’t love their offseason and the team’s run of injuries has been legendary. As good as they are, Atlanta’s 2-2 against the 49ers and beat them in the tough 2019 and 2022 seasons. I think they can get this one at home, especially if their pass rush is back to full strength after what I assume is a six week suspension looming for James Pearce Jr.
Week 8: Falcons @ Buccaneers: Loss
I would love for them to go 2-0 against the Bucs again, and I’m very skeptical of their offense under Zac Robinson. That said, that Tampa Bay defense figures to be awfully tough to deal with, and these two teams have split all but one of the past four season series. I’d bet on a road loss, though I’ll surely talk myself into this one if the Falcons are anywhere near .500 at this point in the season.
Week 9: Falcons vs. Bengals: Win
The Bengals have real talent, but is Joe Burrow going to be healthy? Have they patched enough roster holes? I’m not willing to bet on either, so I’m betting on the home team here, even if “home” is being used a bit loosely.
Week 10: Falcons vs. Chiefs: Loss
I think the Chiefs have a major rebound season in the works, given the talent on hand and the fact that Andy Reid remains a terrific coach, and I can’t see the Falcons beating them even at home. A healthy Patrick Mahomes with some offensive upgrades and a re-tooled Kansas City secondary give them the edge.
Week 11: BYE WEEK
Week 12: Falcons @ Vikings: Loss
Minnesota should be better than they actually are on an annual basis, whether that’s related to their record or their overall play. Kyler Murray significantly raises their floor, however, and they’re both too talented and too well-coached to stay down in 2026. This is one of the lightly penciled-in losses because Minnesota remains beatable, but the upgrade at quarterback alone is reason to believe Atlanta won’t catch the Vikings flat-footed this team out.
Week 13: Falcons vs. Lions: Loss
The Lions should also rebound, and they’re just a scary team. Atlanta hasn’t seen them since 2023, when they lost 20-6, but Detroit remains a squad with a balanced offense, a talented defense, and a quality coaching staff that should get an upgrade with Drew Petzing taking over for a struggling John Morton at offensive coordinator. I can see a game Falcons team making this close, but I’m not sure I can see the Falcons winning it without a hugely impressive early season run and perhaps some major Detroit injuries.
Week 14: Falcons @ Browns: Win
Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees revenge game against a Cleveland team that I simply do not believe will be any good, even if their quality draft should at least carry them in the right direction. Cleveland in the cold is tough but the Falcons will hopefully be much tougher; it’s very possible the Browns are also on quarterback #3 by this point and their skill position additions aren’t all going to hit in year one.
Week 15: Falcons @ Commanders: Win
I’ll always appreciate Dan Quinn for weathering 2015 so well and the success the team saw in 2016 and 2017, but I don’t believe in his Commanders. The frantic shuffling of his coaching staff is a clue that things are not great in Washington, and I don’t think there’s enough talent here for Washington to be more than a borderline playoff team in 2026. These games have come down to the wire of late—the last five matchups have been decided by eight or fewer points—but you’d have to believe in a big Commanders bounceback to think this is anything but a winnable game for Atlanta. I certainly do not believe in that bounceback.
Week 16: Falcons vs. Buccaneers: Win
Two losses in one season to the Buccaneers? Not without Tom Brady under center, buster. The Falcons have also won five of their past seven games against Tampa Bay, who wilted very badly down the stretch in 2025 as Baker Mayfield turned into a particularly surly pumpkin and the coaching staff ran out of answers. It would not surprise me if that happened again.
Week 17: Falcons vs. Saints: Win
Again, am I going to predict a loss to the Saints, especially late in the season when the “fire Kellen Moore” talk is really picking up? Nah.
Week 18: Falcons @ Panthers: Loss
Dispiriting losses at the end of the season have become par for the course for the Falcons against Carolina; the last time they beat the Panthers after October was 2021. Arthur Smith’s ugly December loss to Carolina helped to doom him, while the frustrating January 5 loss under Raheem Morris at the end of the 2024 season proved to be a cautionary note for 2025, where the Falcons lost 30-0 to Carolina in September and 30-27 in November. I would love to be wrong, but I can’t see them beating the Panthers twice in one season.
That would leave the Falcons at 8-9, the same record as the past two seasons, which will be frustrating given how the last eight years have gone. If they can better that record—or just get there while showing evident progress and a clear direction for improvement heading into 2027—we’ll still likely consider Kevin Stefanski’s first year some kind of success.
What’s your record prediction, and how do you see these games shaking out?
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