There was a lot of hullabaloo last week when LeBron finally made his free agency decision and chose the Philadelphia 76ers, which was a surprise. Most people expected him to pick either Miami or Cleveland; in fact, Miami had already prepared a social media announcement, which was accidentally posted prematurely.
But it’s Philly, because, as always with James, it’s where he thinks he’s most likely to win a title. Is that going to happen?
Well, maybe, but the odds are against it. Let’s look.
First, there’s
James himself. He’s played for 23 seasons already, and give him full credit: he’s done an amazing job of keeping himself in great shape, and still, at 41, remains a tremendous player.
But he’s not the player he once was. Last year, we saw several occasions when he just didn’t react on defense. He’s not nearly as explosive as he once was, and the brutal reality is that he will never be better than he was last season. Time catches up to everyone, even King James.
This is also important: He played 82 regular season games in 2017-18, but since then?
- 2018-19: 55 games
- 2019-20: 67 games
- 2020-21: 45 games
- 2021-22: 56 games
- 2022-23: 55 games
- 2023-24: 71 games
- 2024-25: 70 games
- 2025-26: 60 games
He missed more than a quarter of last season, and he’s missed plenty over the last eight seasons, as noted. But he’s not the biggest problem.
That would be Joel Embiid, who, at 32, has had even more problems.
Over the same period, here’s how his availability has been:
- 2018-19: 64 games
- 2019-20: 51 games
- 2020-21: 51 games
- 2021-22: 68 games
- 2022-23: 66 games
- 2023-24: 39 games
- 2024-25: 19 games
- 2025-26: 38 games
Now, bear in mind that in 2019-20, the season was limited by Covid, and no one played more than 67 games, but still, that’s not a great track record. And don’t forget that Embiid lost his first two seasons to injuries.
On the bright side, the Sixers now have Jaylen Brown, who has been outstanding for his entire career, VJ Edgecombe, who will really benefit from James’s experience, and Tyrese Maxey, who has really proven himself. That’s a great perimeter, but there’s a lot riding on James and Embiid staying healthy.
And if they don’t, who do they have to step in?
There’s not much on the bench.
If you were betting on next year, you’d probably be wise to look to the Spurs. They crashed hard against the Knicks in the finals, but their core is young, talented, and just got socked in the nose. They learned a lot from New York, and our guess is they’ll be highly motivated for another shot.
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