After sweeping the Mets early last week, the Orioles returned to Baltimore with a clear goal: win their series against the MLB-best Brewers and keep themselves in the playoff race. Instead, Milwaukee won a back-and-forth, extra-inning affair in Game 1 and proceeded to shut out the Orioles over the next 18 innings to sweep Baltimore and put the O’s on the brink of elimination in the Wild Card race.
The math has become very simple for Baltimore. Any combination of two White Sox wins, two Orioles losses
or a White Sox win and an Orioles loss eliminates the O’s from postseason contention. This means that Baltimore needs to go 6-0 or 5-1 the rest of the way, while Chicago goes 1-5 or 0-6. The Orioles also need the Astros to lose at least 4 of their last 6 or the Rangers to lose at least five of their last 6.
The O’s open their last home series today against Toronto before closing out the regular season with a three game set in the Bronx. Given that Baltimore is 2-8 against the Yankees, sweeping the Blue Jays (and hoping Chicago loses their series in Kansas City) is the only “realistic” way to keep the Orioles’ postseason hopes alive just a little longer.
Game 1: Monday, September 21st, 6:35pm ET
Probable pitchers: RHP Shane Baz (6-15, 4.11 ERA, 152 Ks) vs. RHP Trey Yesavage (5-5, 3.65 ERA, 91 Ks)
Where to watch: MASN/MASN+
The first of three must-win games vs. Toronto starts with a matchup of the unluckiest pitcher in baseball vs. Toronto’s rookie phenom. Baz has largely been successful in his first season with the Orioles, leading all of Baltimore’s starters with 173 innings while placing second with a 3.61 FIP and 152 Ks. However, his complete lack of run support (3.35 runs/game—third-worst in baseball) has doomed Baz to an MLB-leading 15 losses.
The 27-year-old right-hander has faced Toronto once before this season, in a game that epitomized his lack of luck throughout 2026. Back in June, Baz pitched 5.2 innings in Toronto, allowing 1 earned run and 4 unearned runs in a 6-4 Orioles loss. That game turned on a Gunnar Henderson E6 in the 6th inning, with the error sparking a rally that turned a 4-1 Orioles lead into a 5-4 deficit.
Baz has been strong over his last five starts in Camden Yards, posting a 3.85 ERA while averaging 6+ IP per start. Ironically, the better that Baz has pitched, the worse the Orioles’ record at Camden Yards. In the four starts where Baz allowed 3 ER or fewer, the Orioles went 0-4. Last time out against the Guardians, he allowed 5 ER over 5.2 innings in a 9-5 Orioles win.
The boom-or-bust Baltimore bats will need to solve rookie right-hander Trey Yesavage. The 23-year-old will be making his first start since August 4th after landing on the IL with a knee injury. Yesavage faced Baltimore in back-to-back starts at the end of May/beginning of June. The outing in Baltimore went the rookie’s way, as he tossed 5 innings while allowing 2 hits, 1 ER and striking out seven. His start six days later in Toronto was not as good, with a final line of 5.2, 5 H, 6 ER, 5 Ks and this majestic home run from Coby Mayo.
Game 2: Tuesday, September 22nd, 6:35pm ET
Probable pitchers: RHP Chris Bassitt (8-5, 4.64 ERA, 72 Ks) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (3-8, 6.07 ERA, 54 Ks)
Where to watch: MASN/MASN+
By virtue of the fact that the White Sox and Guardians do not play on Monday, Tuesday is the earliest day the Orioles could be officially eliminated from playoff contention. Birdland will cling to that hope for a miracle as they watch former Blue Jay Chris Bassitt face future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer.
The Orioles’ 37-year-old right-hander has played his best baseball of the season since coming off the IL in the middle of August. Over his last seven outings, Bassitt has a 3.76 ERA and has held opponents to a .269 average. His best start was his last start against another former team, as Bassitt pitched 6.2 innings of one-run ball against the Mets in a 7-1 Orioles win. Two starts ago, the 12-year vet faced the Blue Jays in Toronto, guiding the O’s to a victory with a solid line of 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB and 5 Ks.
Scherzer may be headed to Cooperstown one day, but his potential final season has been largely forgettable. The Orioles tagged him for six runs over five innings in Toronto 10 days ago, including a leadoff home run from Dylan Beavers. The Orioles have struggled all season to get production from their outfielders, but we could see that trend reverse against Scherzer, as Beavers and Colton Cowser have combined to 5-for-11 with three long balls against the eight-time All-Star.
Game 3: Wednesday, September 23rd, 6:35pm ET
Probable pitchers: TBD vs. TBD
Where to watch: MASN/MASN+
Neither the Blue Jays nor Orioles have announced a starter for the series finale and their decision could largely depend on whether either team is still alive for postseason contention. If the White Sox win their first game in Kansas City and the Blue Jays win at least one of the first two games, the Orioles would come in eliminated from postseason contention. If the Orioles win Game 1 & 2 and the White Sox win their opener vs. the Royals, the Blue Jays would be eliminated from postseason contention.
This used to be Kyle Bradish’s spot in the rotation before he landed on the IL with a sports hernia. Last time through, the Orioles recalled Cade Povich and he delivered 3.2 innings while allowing 3 runs while taking a no decision vs. Milwaukee. Despite Povich’s career ERA of 6.91 vs. Toronto, I’d expect the Orioles to try to bring him back up on Wednesday if they still have a shot at the playoffs, which would require putting someone on the IL. Other options could be a spot start from Albert Suárez or Trey Gibson, with each becoming more likely if the O’s are already eliminated.
This would normally be Dylan Cease’s spot in the Toronto rotation. If the Blue Jays still have a sliver of hope about making the postseason, Cease will surely get the ball. In his only start against Baltimore this year, the 2026 All-Star was his usaully sharp self, limiting the Orioles to 1 run across 5 innings while striking out nine.
At one point it looked like Cease might be in contention for the AL Cy Young award, which could have influenced Toronto’s decision to start him in the series finale. However, with the Yankees’ Cam Schlittler seen as a virtual lock to take home the award, expect the Blue Jays to turn to a spot starter if they are eliminated.
