For the first time since the year 2000, the Virginia Cavaliers women’s basketball team will take the floor in the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet Sixteen.
The ‘Hoos, who have become the talk of the college basketball world this week after shocking second-seeded Iowa on Monday afternoon, are the first women’s team ever to advance past the Round of 32 after starting in the ‘First Four.
In a women’s college basketball landscape that rarely produces a true
Cinderella (UVA is the first double-digit seed to reach the second weekend since 2022), the ‘Hoos managed to win three games in five days in the sweltering heat of an AC-less Carver-Hawkeye Arena, relying on an all-time tournament run from superstar point guard Kymora Johnson and some timely performances by a talented cast of unsung heroes.
Monday’s upset win over the Hawkeyes on their home floor in Iowa City marked UVA’s first-ever win over a top-four seed when seeded below a three itself. To keep the clock from striking midnight, however, Virginia will have to topple another giant this weekend.
The ’Hoos take on the third-seeded TCU Horned Frogs, led by Big 12 Player of the Year Olivia Miles, on Saturday evening. Tip-off is set for 7:30 PM EST with coverage on ESPN. In the meantime, here are five x-factors that will determine whether Virginia can keep its magical March run alive:
Kymora Johnson
Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first. There is no Cinderella run for Virginia without Kymora Johnson, and it will take another monster performance from her to take down the Horned Frogs.
A 5-foot-7 hometown hero from Charlottesville, Johnson is averaging 24.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game while shooting 34% from beyond the arc during the Cavaliers’ tournament run.
Even if Virginia goes no further than the Sweet Sixteen, the list of clutch buckets Johnson has already converted this postseason is all-time stuff. In three NCAA Tournament games, she has delivered a go-ahead 3-pointer in the First Four against Arizona State, capping a double-double against the Sun Devils’ vaunted defense; knocked down five 3-pointers against seventh-seeded Georgia while finishing with 28 points; and taken over against the Hawkeyes with game-tying buckets in the final minutes of both the fourth quarter and overtime.
Not all x-factors are under the radar. Put simply, the ‘Hoos will go as far as Johnson takes them.
Slowing down Olivia Miles
The Horned Frogs’ graduate guard is one of the best in the country, and she’s seen major success against Virginia before, turning in one of her 12 career triple-doubles in December of 2024 against the ’Hoos while playing for Notre Dame.
Miles is a projected top-five pick in the upcoming WNBA draft, and Virginia will have its hands full trying to slow her down. But this is a much different Cavaliers defense than the one she saw over a year ago.
Though just the 63rd-most efficient unit in the country (via BartTorvik.com), Virginia has a plethora of athletic, versatile weapons on that side of the ball in Paris Clark, Sa’Myah Smith, and Romi Levy. And the ’Hoos have turned in two of their best defensive efforts of the season over their past three games.
Clark is Virginia’s best on-ball perimeter defender, so she’ll likely get the first crack at Miles. But don’t be surprised if Coach Mox throws the kitchen sink at her. Levy’s length as a 6-foot-2 guard could be effective against Miles, and Virginia has the fourth-best block percentage in the nation (16.0).
Paris Clark
A 5-foot-8, former McDonald’s All-American and five-star high-school prospect, Paris Clark is the very definition of an x-factor for Virginia. When she’s cooking, Clark is as shifty and explosive a three-level scorer as you can find. But consistency has long been her Achilles heel.
Against Iowa in the Round of 32, Clark went on a personal 8-0 run midway through the fourth quarter, slicing the Hawkeyes’ nine-point lead down to one while completely flipping the momentum. Without Clark, Virginia almost certainly would’ve fallen short against Iowa. But with her in attack mode, the ’Hoos have a nearly unstoppable backcourt duo.
This season, Clark has scored 15 or more points on seven occasions. But she’s also dipped to five points or fewer 10 times. Virginia can’t afford a Clark no-show moving forward in the NCAA Tournament — her aggressiveness is key to creating space for Johnson to operate.
Grabbing offensive rebounds
Virginia grabs offensive rebounds at the 25th-best clip in the country, which has masked some of its offensive inefficiency throughout the season. It’ll be strength on strength, however, against TCU, as the Horned Frogs secure defensive rebounds at the nation’s 11th-best rate.
It’s easier said than done, but the Cavaliers are going to need second-chance opportunities to pull off another upset. TCU is one of the nation’s tallest teams, but Virginia has a pair of 6-foot-4 centers in Caitlin Weimar and Tabitha Amanze who can mix it up with just about any frontcourt.
Every March run contains its fair share of lucky breaks, and the ’Hoos are going to need a few offensive boards to bounce their way on Saturday night.
The unsung heroes
The final x-factor that will determine if the Cavaliers keep dancing is a mystery: will another unexpected hero step up and deliver a breakout game?
In the First Four, it was Caitlin Weimar, who poured in 11 points on 4-of-5 shooting and added 12 rebounds in what was just her fourth double-double of the season. Then, in the Round of 64 it was Sa’Myah Smith, who racked up a career-high 23 points while pulling down 11 rebounds. And in the Round of 32, it was Paris Clark’s 20 points that made the difference.
Virginia needs at least one of Weimar, Smith, Clark, or another unlikely ’Hoo to rise to the occasion against the Horned Frogs. March is when legends are made, and Virginia needs to add another to the list to keep its Cinderella story going.
