NFC Playoff Picture: Eagles on track to No. 3 seed if they don’t blow NFC East lead

SB Nation

Playoffs?!

Yes, the Philadelphia Eagles still have a really good chance to make the playoffs despite losing three games in a row.

If you disagree, you can bet the Eagles to miss the postseason at +820 on FanDuel

Sportsbook.

With an overtime loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, the Eagles blew a chance to cut their magic number to win the NFC East down to two. Instead, it remains at three. As a reminder, here are the final four games for the top two teams in the division.

EAGLES REMAINING SCHEDULE

vs. Las Vegas Raiders
at Washington Commanders
at Buffalo Bills
vs. Washington Commanders

COWBOYS REMAINING SCHEDULE

vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. Los Angeles Chargers
at Washington Commanders
vs. New York Giants

I see the Eagles winning two more regular season games at most. The Raiders game and one of the two Commanders games seem most likely in that regard. If that’s the case, the Eagles need the Cowboys to lose at least one more game for Philly to clinch the NFC East. I do think Dallas loses at least one, though I don’t think it’s impossible they could win out. If the Cowboys do win out, the Eagles have to win three of their final four games to clinch the division.

Predicting the Eagles to win just isn’t easy. Yes, they play some really bad teams down the stretch. But they’re a really bad team right now, too! Philly’s defense provides room for optimism. But the offense flat out sucks. It’s unconscionably bad.

Assuming the Eagles do find a way to not surrender their division lead, it’s looking like they’re going to be the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoff picture. They hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so, that can help prevent them from dropping to the No. 4 slot. But it could be tough to move ahead of the NFC West and NFC North leaders.

If you’re of the mind that the Eagles can still get the No. 1 seed, well, it’s not impossible. But it is unlikely. Here’s the path to the first-round bye, via the great Deniz Selman:

I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Again, the No. 3 seed seems most likely at the moment. And if the Eagles’ season ended today, which it doesn’t, they’d host the San Francisco 49ers at Lincoln Financial Field. Do you feel good about them winning that one? Or maybe it’s a rematch with the Chicago Bears or Detroit Lions.

Or maybe the Eagles really do just continue to collapse and miss the playoffs entirely. What do you think is the most likely outcome?

Here’s the entire updated NFC playoff picture after Week 14.