Sometimes, NBA coaches and executives say weird things, which is what Milwaukee Bucks head coach Doc Rivers just did.
Per Eric Nehm, Bucks beat writers for The Athletic, Rivers had this to say about former Wizards great Kyle Kuzma:
Let’s unpack. Saying Kuzma
fits as a 3/4 isn’t odd — that’s what Kuzma is. With Milwaukee’s personnel, he probably starts at three with Giannis Antetokounmpo at four and Myles Turner at five. That’s a big front court, which might be good for the Bucks.
The stuff about how Kuzma practiced is normal coach-speak. This seems to be a case of a coach using the media to reinforce how he wants Kuzma to play, which he (or an assistant coach) likely said to Kuzma directly. Normal stuff — praise a guy publicly for doing something the way the coach wants it done.
Edging into the weird was the comment about Bucks defenders being forced to foul him when he “got downhill,” considering that Kuzma has not reliably produced free throws through eight NBA seasons.
The part that struck me as genuinely weird was what Rivers said about Kuzma’s shot profile. Because the numbers show his summary is needlessly wrong.
Now, in Washington (three-and-a-half seasons, not five — but we can forgive him that one), Kuzma, “could literally take any shot,” as Rivers said. And he did. But, Kuzma did not take “a ton of midrange shots.” Not by league standards, and not even by his own.
For his career, according to Basketball-Reference, 14.8% of Kuzma’s field goal attempts were midrangers (two pointers from 10 feet out to the three-point line). In Washington, it was 15.6% of his shot attempts. The league average was about 14% during his time with the Wizards.
So, the “ton” Rivers was referencing is not quite one shot out of every 100 compared to Kuzma’s career average, and about 1.6 shots of every 100 compared to the league.
To be charitable to Rivers, his point is sorta okay with a tweak. During his time in Washington, Kuzma got to the rim a bit less than his career norm — 19.0% of his FGA were at-rim in DC vs. 22.0% for his career. He didn’t trade those at-rim attempts for midrangers, though. He swapped them for floater range shots (3-10 feet).
With the Wizards, floater range attempts were 27.1% of his attempts compared to a career average of 23.0%.
Floater range shots typically come as a result of failed drives — a player trying to get to the rim but being forced by the defense to take a shot from a little further out. Which makes sense if you watched Kuzma with the Wizards. He’d drive and fling up some wild runner if he couldn’t get to the rim.
Wild runners or not, Kuzma was about average at converting those attempts (46.4% when with the Wizards — league average is around 46%), but — to Rivers’ message — those floater range shots are lower-yield shots. Usually. In Kuzma’s case, there’s a caveat.
That’s because Kuzma is a subpar three-point shooter — 33.4% for his career and 33.0% in Washington. His floater range shots produce 0.91 points per shot (using his career conversion rate), and 0.93 (using his conversion rate with the Wizards). His three-point shooting yields 1.00 and 0.99 points per shot.
In other words, Kuzma’s floater range shots are almost as good as his three-point shots at producing points. Add in the effect of drawing fouls and maybe even turnovers and assists, and they probably come out “about the same.”
Now, to extend further charity to Rivers, the numbers do support Kuzma taking even fewer midrange shots. His career percentage on twos from 10+ feet is poor (around 38%), and it was even worse with Washington. Like most players, he’d benefit from taking fewer of them, even though they’ve actually been a small part of his shot diet.
So, why am I picking at Doc Rivers? Because even though there’s a kernel of a point in his comment to reporters, his message and coaching advice would be strengthened by accuracy. The issue with Kuzma’s inefficiency in Washington — and throughout his entire career — is not a result of taking a ton of mid-rangers — because (as the numbers show) Kuzma hasn’t taken “a ton.”
Rather, his inefficiency results from the reality that he’s not a good shooter from anywhere except inside three feet, he commits a lot of turnovers, and he doesn’t get offensive rebounds. There’d be a modest benefit to swapping midrange twos for at-rim attempts, if there was a way to reliably get more at-rim attempts. His NBA coaches haven’t been able to figure out how to do that, even when he shared the floor with LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Exchanging midrangers for three-point attempts would be somewhat easier, though the boost to offensive efficiency would be small because Kuzma is not a good long-range shooter.
The experiment I’d propose (which may have already been tried by his actual coaches) would be to urge Kuzma to drive frequently and shoot if he can get to the rim or make a safe pass out if he can’t. Have designed safe passes to give him easier reads and help him reduce turnovers. And, I’d ask him to resist taking jumpers from any range outside 10 feet unless it’s a wide-open three or the shot clock is running out.
