The Royals enter this offseason looking to upgrade an outfield that produced the fewest runs in baseball last year. One intriguing trade target who could help change that is Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran, whose name has surfaced frequently in trade rumors this winter.
Jarren Duran is a 29-year-old from California who debuted in 2021. The left-handed hitter struggled in his first two seasons, but came on in 2023 and was an All-Star in 2024. He led the league in doubles (48) and triples (14) that
year and was fourth among all American League hitters in rWAR at 8.4. He regressed a bit this year, but was still a very productive player, hitting .256/.332/.442 with 16 home runs, 24 steals, and a league-high 13 triples, good for 4.7 rWAR.
Duran is generally around league average in walk rate with a slightly above-league-average strikeout rate, although both spiked up a bit this year. He suffered from a high ground ball rate early in his career, but has lowered that while increasing his hard-hit rate. Like many lefties, he struggles against southpaws, batting .211/.260/.340 against them this year.
He has great speed, stealing at least 24 bases in each of the last three seasons. He was a Gold Glove finalist in centerfield last year, rating very well in defensive metrics. His numbers slipped a bit in left field this year, possibly due to the Green Monster, but he still rated well with a very strong arm.
Duran is a pretty intense guy who has been open about his struggles with mental health. In the Netflix documentary The Clubhouse: A Year with the Red Sox about the 2024 season, there is an entire episode that details Duran’s rise and struggles dealing with adversity. He has had a few confrontational interactions with fans, including at Kauffman Stadium in 2022 and again this year in Cleveland, and he apologized last year for directing a homophobic slur at a fan. His intensity may be why the Red Sox are ready to move on with a change of scenery for the young outfielder. But that intensity can also be a positive, the kind of edge that could resonate well in a young Royals clubhouse looking to add more fire and confidence to its lineup.
The Red Sox have a crowded outfield already with rookie Roman Anthony joining Wilyer Abreu and Gold Glover Cedanne Rafaela. Duran makes more money, making him the most likely to be traded. The Red Sox signed him to a one-year deal worth $7.7 million for 2026 to avoid arbitration. They had declined his club option for $8 million, and he was projected to earn around $8.4 million through arbitration. Duran would be eligible for arbitration again after next year and 2027, and would not be eligible for free agency until after the 2028 season.
Boston’s stance on Duran has grown increasingly clear. Jim Bowden of the Athletic indicated that the Red Sox are likely to deal the outfielder this offseason, writing, “Regardless, Duran’s name keeps coming up in trade rumors and it now sounds like the Red Sox will move on from him this winter,” adding that “it would take a huge haul for the Red Sox to move him.” Bob Nightengale of USA Today went further, reporting, “The Red Sox believe that they need an upgrade over Duran, and that he needs a fresh start. It would be a huge surprise if he’s in Fort Myers, Fla., come spring training.”
The Padres were reportedly very interested in adding Duran over the summer, and the Twins reportedly asked for Duran in a potential deal for pitcher Joe Ryan. Other teams that could be interested in him this winter include the Dodgers, Tigers, Phillies, Rangers, and Reds.
So what kind of “huge haul” would it take to land Duran? He is an All-Star caliber hitter in his prime with three years of control left. The Red Sox are said to be looking for a starting pitcher, which matches where the Royals have the most depth. The Royals built up starting pitching depth last summer by acquiring Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, and Bailey Falter and could use that surplus to acquire a bat.
Here’s what Ken Rosenthal wrote this summer when the Royals were rumored to be interested in Duran.
The Red Sox would not trade Duran for a pitcher who likely would amount to a rental. But the Royals could sweeten the deal with prospects, and teams are targeting their young catching, in particular.
That would seem to rule out Kris Bubic, who is coming off injury and has one more season before he is eligible for free agency, unless the Royals toss in highly-ranked prospects. The Royals have catching depth, but the rest of the farm system is thin. The Red Sox have rookie catcher Carlos Narváez, who finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting, but you can find room for a good young bat. The Royals may be willing to part with Blake Mitchell, who has struggled to hit for power since returning from his wrist injury, while the Red Sox would likely be much more interested in Carter Jensen, who tore up MLB pitching in September. But Boston may be reluctant to acquire a pitcher like Bubic with his injury past, especially since he didn’t pitch in the second half.
The Red Sox would likely love Cole Ragans, but the Royals would be very reluctant to trade a pitcher with his upside, particularly after injuries diminished his trade value this year. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo are too expensive and old to have much interest for the Red Sox in a trade for a dynamic young outfielder. But rookie Noah Cameron could be an enticing return after a remarkable debut season. Losing a pitcher of Cameron’s caliber would hurt, but getting back an All-Star bat will require giving up something of great value.
Proposal: Royals acquire outfielder Jarren Duran for pitcher Noah Cameron, catcher Blake Mitchell, and pitcher Angel Zerpa
Why the Royals do it: Duran immediately becomes the second-best player in the lineup. He gives the Royals a top-of-the-order hitter to set up Bobby Witt Jr., and stabilize left field for the next three years. The rotation is still in good shape with Ragans/Wacha/Lugo/Bubic, with some combination of Bergert/Kolek/Falter/Ben Kudrna in the fifth spot.
Why the Red Sox do it: Cameron slots into a Red Sox rotation with Garrett Crochet/Brayan Bello/Connelly Early/Kutter Crawford. Mitchell gives them a high upside left-handed hitting prospect who could eventually split time with Narváez. Zerpa adds to their bullpen and gives them another lefty arm with Brennan Bernardino.
Why the Royals don’t do it: Losing Cameron means the rotation is relying on a lot of pitchers either on the wrong side of 30 or with injury concerns. Trading six years of Cameron for three years of Duran may not wise for a small market team. Trading Mitchell now is dealing him when his value is at a discount due to his injury.
Why the Red Sox don’t do it: Cameron may not have the upside to make it worth trading an All-Star caliber left fielder. Mitchell has yet to re-establish his power, and catching is not a great need.
What do you think? What would you give up for Jarren Duran?
