If you spend anytime online watching or listening to national analysts ranking and explaining quarterback rankings, you will probably have noted that where to putSeattle Seahawks starting quarterback Sam Darnold is a mixed bag. He is sometimes put in the top 10 quarterbacks, and is usually between seven to 10, like on NFL.com, but that is the minority. More often than not, he is ranked between 12 to 20 like on ESPN. Per Gregg Rosenthal, he is the 13th ranked quarterback. With such a disparity in where to place
the Super Bowl winning quarterback, the question remains: is Darnold a top 10 quarterback? That is what we will try to answer today.
The Analytics
There is no doubting that the beginning of Sam Darnold’s career was a rocky one. Drafted by the New York Jets, he was tasked with running the Peyton Manning-style offense with Adam Gase, which is similar to giving a college textbook to a middle school student and ask them to fully comprehend it. Needless to say, there would be bumps along the road. He averaged around 2,700 passing yards, 13 interceptions and 15 touchdowns a season, with an average completion rate of 59.8% and a passer rating of 78.63 in his three-year stint with the Jets. That is not good, especially being the third overall pick in the 2018 draft.
In his next stop with the Carolina Panthers, Matt Rhule tried to implement his college offense with Darnold under center. Any Seahawk fans remembering the Ryan Grubb offense in 2024, or watching the Chip Kelly offense with the Las Vegas Raiders last season, can tell you that college offenses do not work out all that well in the NFL. Darnold started 12 games in his first year with the Panthers, and six games the next season. He threw for a total of 3670 yards, 15 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, with a completion percentage of 59.5% and a passer rating of 76.64. He seemed to be regressing, and most of the national media seemingly gave up on Sam Darnold.
Those were the statistics from his first two NFL stints, and he spent a year being the backup to Brock Purdy with the San Francisco 49ers in 2023. He finally got his opportunity to start again with the Vikings, then got a long term contract with the Seahawks in 2025. These last two seasons, Darnold led his teams to 14-3 regular seasons, the only quarterback to do so in back to back seasons while playing for two different teams. He also became the first University of Southern California quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl.
There is no doubting that the last two seasons have been good for Darnold, but does his performance elevate him to a top ten quarterback? To answer this question, I took a look at 34 starting quarterbacks the last two seasons. I looked at their stats, specifically at their passing yards, attempts, completions, completion percentage, touchdowns, and interceptions. From that, I used Pro Football Reference’s passer rating calculator to calculate the quarterbacks passer rating. If they did not play all 17 regular season games, I calculated their stats for that season to see what they would have been if they had played all 17 games that season. I then averaged their stats from 2024 and 2025 together to get an average statistical look at their performance. That way, every quarterback was on an even playing field and at their peak performance.
The top 10 quarterbacks based on this calculation of their passer rating are as follows:
1. Lamar Jackson: 112.03
2. Jared Goff: 108.8
3. Joe Burrow: 105.11
4. Josh Allen: 102.01
5. Sam Darnold: 100.94
6. Drake Maye: 100.81
7. Matthew Stafford: 100.8
8. Jalen Hurts: 100.36
9. Baker Mayfield: 98.71
10. Jordan Love: 98.48
Over the past two seasons, Darnold ranked seventh in passing yards with an average of 4184, 10th in completion percentage at 66.9, seventh in touchdowns with an average of 30 per season, and tied with Patrick Mahomes at eighth in interceptions with a two-year average 13. Overall, he was the fifth ranked quarterback on average over the last two season by these statistics.
Funnily enough, Pro Football Network also has Darnold as their fifth ranked quarterback from 2025 based on their grading scale, just behind Jordan Love at fourth, Brock Purdy at third, Matthew Stafford at second, and Drake Maye at first. Just behind Darnold to round out the top 10 are Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, then Joe Burrow.
Per Seahawk Nerd, they had Darnold in the top 10 in Bog Boy Quarterbacking with Expected Points Added (EPA) and success rate adjusted for expected Yards After Catch (YAC) used to calculate the best throwers of the football in the league. In their words, “EPA is great for capturing the explosiveness of big plays, and success rate is great for measuring how consistently the offense stays on schedule. Together, they provide a framework for assessing the two main goals of NFL quarterbacking.” The graph below shows the results.
Per Pro Football Focus, Darnold was in their top five most clutch quarterbacks, ranking fourth. Prescott ranked first, then Stafford and Jackson. Mark Chichester noted that Darnold this past season rated high in several quarterback stats “including accurate throw rate (73.3%, third), negatively graded play rate (8.9%, fifth) and yards per attempt (8.4, fifth),” while only having a 0.89 percent turnover-worthy play rate.
Brian Nemhauser created a tool to evaluate players, and per his tool Darnold is the eighth ranked quarterback out of 45. As noted on the graph below from the tool, Darnold rates high in passing statistics, and not as high in rushing stats. My own calculations back this, as I have him ranked 24th in average rushing yards average of 154 rushing yards, and tied for eighth in average rushing touchdowns with one. I would argue, however, he does enough with his legs to avoid sacks, and is able to scramble and get the first down if needed, averaging 17 runs for first downs the last two seasons and 3.4 yards per carry throughout his career. His longest run went for 46 yards, with his longest from 2025 was for 24 yards. While using his legs to get yards may not be his biggest tool in his toolbox, he has the tools that count the most for having a long career as a starting quarterback in the NFL: arm talent.
Conclusion
Based on the analytics mentioned above, Darnold should be considered a top 10 quarterback in the league. He is one of the most accurate throwers of the ball, one of the top big time passers in the league, and a Super Bowl champion. He also has the backing of his coaching staff and locker room, winning over teammates from both the offensive and defensive side of the ball.
In playoff game statistics, which many critics held as the goal post to prove them wrong, he did that and more. Over the last two seasons he has one interception and one fumble (both with the Vikings), a completion percentage of 61.8%, and a passer rating of 102.4 in 2025. He did not turn the ball over once in the playoffs with the Seahawks. On the biggest stages, Darnold won, played clean games, and lifted the Lombardi Trophy.
I believe it is safe to say for the majority of people, those first six years really left an imprint on their view of Darnold. First impressions are hard to overcome, but in my book, he has done just that. The man who once saw ghosts has become The Ghostbuster.
