The Matchup: The New Jersey Devils (9-5-0) versus the Edmonton Oilers (11-2-2)
The Time: 7:30 PM EST (likely puck drop: 7:37)
The Broadcast: TV — ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+; Radio — Devils Hockey Network
Power Play Changes and ERod Illness
According to Amanda Stein, Evan Rodrigues missed practice yesterday due to an illness similar to the one that previously kept Luke Evangelista out of the lineup. His status for tonight is to be determined. On the other hand, Anthony Mantha was a full participant at practice, with no issues following his departure
of Friday’s game in Vegas. In accordance with these developments, there has been a change to the personnel on the power play: for the first time this season, Connor Brown will be appearing, and Luke Evangelista will help try to create plays on the second unit.
While this is not necessarily the change some were hoping for, Connor Brown was effective member of the first power play unit at times last season. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Devils scored 8.54 goals per 60 minutes with Brown on the power play last season, which was fourth among Devils forwards, though they allowed their most shorthanded goals against with him on the ice at 1.6 SHGA/60. When isolating to his minutes with Nico Hischier, the rates were 10.15 PPGF/60 and 1.9 SHGA/60. This made little true net impact compared to other players, as the Hischier-led power play (he led all Devils with over 250 power play minutes) scored about two fewer goals per 60 while allowing zero shorthanded goals without Brown on the ice. Perhaps this was due to Brown being added to the power play later in the season, when the Devils were more desperate to win and less likely to play with regard to risk.
Per Stein, Brown primarily practiced in the netfront position. I think this is best, as Nico Hischier has been one of the best bumper scorers in the league over the last few seasons. While Hischier and Evangelista were supposed to rotate with regularity, it looked to me like it was mostly Hischier screening for shots.
Stopping McDavid
There are very few things that were long thought untouchable by nearly all hockey fans in the world. One such thing was whether anyone would ever score 200 points again after Wayne Gretzky last did it in 1985-86. Even Mario Lemieux was “only” able to score 199 points in 1988-89, though he likely would have made it to 200 had he played some of the four games he missed during the season. That 1985-86 season of Gretzky’s was his highest-scoring at 215 points, but Connor McDavid is currently on track for 218 points, rounded down, in the new 84-game schedule. To be fair to Gretzky, McDavid’s 39 points in 15 games has him on a 208-point pace over an equivalent 80-game schedule, but the point is clear: McDavid is doing what was thought to be impossible.
Historically, Connor McDavid does very well at creating goals against the New Jersey Devils. In his career, he has seven goals and 31 points in 18 games. There are certainly teams who have fared worse, or much worse in some cases, but McDavid is a bit above his career average pace against the Devils. This has slowed down a bit over the last four years, as McDavid has been held to three goals and 11 points over his last seven games against the Devils, which translates to his exact career per-game scoring pace.
The Devils’ top pairing of Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce will be tasked with containing McDavid tonight. As Sheldon Keefe noted yesterday, McDavid is playing at a heightened pace, moving the puck with incredible skating speed. Brett Pesce will have to be mindful of how aggressive he is on the ice, as he prefers to end potential rushes in the neutral zone, while Luke Hughes will have to his burners ready to set up one-on-one defensive situations with McDavid.
An Important Bottom Six Game
This season, the Oilers have created their offense almost entirely through their top line. McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Vasily Podkolzin have combined for 38 goals out of the 63 the team has scored. They are finally aided by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who has three goals and seven points in six games since returning from an injury. Therefore, if the Devils want to come away with this win, I imagine three of the following four conditions must hit their baseline or better:
- Connor Hellebuyck has a good or even excellent game
- The top six matches Edmonton’s top six scoring
- The bottom six outscores Edmonton’s bottom six
- Special teams breaks even
There are weak points in Edmonton’s roster. After their top defensive pairing of Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm, none of their defenders have fared better than average. Jake Walman, Shakir Mukhamadullin, and Connor Murphy have struggled, while Ty Emberson has been able to break even while not creating much offense to speak of. Only Ryan Shea has performed as a truly adequate second-pairing defenseman. Meanwhile, much of Edmonton’s fourth line group has struggled to get on the scoresheet.
Hot Goaltending
I fully expect the Oilers will be starting Tristan Jarry tonight. While Jarry had a rough beginning to his Oilers tenure, he has a .901 save percentage this season and is coming off of two consecutive shutouts. Matt Tomkins played last for Edmonton in their 4-1 win over the Rangers on Sunday. Jarry should match up against Connor Hellebuyck in his Devils home debut. Hellebuyck has won both of his first two starts on the road with a .923 save percentage on 39 shots against. He may be warmed up, but he will face a different beast tonight.
Let’s see if Sheldon Keefe can get his team to limit Edmonton’s shots as well as they were able to in most games this season.
Your Thoughts
What do you think of tonight’s game? Are you excited for Connor Hellebuyck to start at home? Do you think the Devils can match up against Connor McDavid? Will you be attending tonight’s game or watching from home? Leave your thoughts in the comments below and thanks for reading.
