Sometimes Past Me annoys Present Me. Today is one of those times.
Past Me promised a statistical doppelgänger article about Trae Young. Present Me looked at the numbers and wants to write about Something Else. But…well…crap, a promise is a promise.
The first challenge is that Young didn’t play much last season. Just 10 games for the Atlanta Hawks and five for the Wizards. He totaled 384 minutes, which isn’t enough to say much of anything. Except, bright side: his on-court performance this past season was
pretty similar to his 2024-25. And his 2023-24, for that matter.
So, I used Young’s 2024-25 numbers in the statistical doppelgänger machine to find statistical comparisons. For the record, I tried using Young’s 2025-26 age with his 2024-25 stats, and it made no difference in his comps. I tried adding in his 2025-26 play, and it made basically no difference.
Why am I grumpy? Because the comps are giving me the same message they did when I did a similar analysis when John Wall was about to sign his maximum contract extension, which is basically the same message I delivered using an entirely different process when Young signed his extension earlier this summer.
The TLDR is that every way I look at things, I keep coming back to the same conclusion: the Young extension is a mistake. It has a high chance of ending up a blunder. Probably not as high as getting into a land war in Asia, but…I think it’s going to be one of the worst contracts in the NBA, if it isn’t already.
What makes this even more annoying is that I like Young. I’ve enjoyed watching him play, even when he grifted free throws so much the league literally changed the rules to make him stop. And by the way, new rules or not, Young’s free throw attempts per possession barely changed. Either he found new ways to grift, or he’s actually a pain in the butt to defend. (It’s the latter.)
Liking Young and appreciating his offensive game doesn’t replace analysis of his overall impact on the game. His defense has been a problem. His overall production has drooped the past few seasons. Still good, but not at the level of the mustache-twirling villain who tortured the New York Knicks. His old team was willing to trade him for the worst team in the NBA’s discards.
And the Wizards gave him the max. Despite there not being anyone else interested in paying close to that much.
Okay, enough with all that.
This is the fourth installment in the annual ritual of running players through the Statistical Doppelgänger Machine to see which player seasons are most like the reference player. The Machine uses 14 categories, which include per possession box score stats, playing time, and age. Factors like size and position are not included, but players tend to get comparisons similar in both.
So far this summer, we’ve looked at Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, and Kyshawn George.
To the doppelgängers:
- Deron Williams | 2011-12 | New Jersey Nets | Age: 27 — Williams was a major problem for opponents. From age 23 to 25 he had three straight seasons with a PPA of 167 or higher. The year he got traded, he rated over 150. This was his first full season with the Nets, and it was bad by his standards. He bounced back for a 151 PPA at age 28 and then declined fast. By age 30, he was basically average…and he dropped more from there.
- Michael Adams | 1990-91 | Denver Nuggets | Age: 28 — This comp works for me — small guard, unorthodox and herky-jerky, shot tons of threes, didn’t defend. This was Adams’ best season (161 PPA). He returned to Washington the following season…and declined. He was decent at 29 and 30 (131 and 123 PPAs) and average by 31. He hung on for a couple more years as a seldom-used reserve with the Charlotte Hornets.
- John Wall | 2016-17 | Washington Wizards | Age: 26 — My mental math on this is Young is kinda like Wall plus shooting, minus the strength, athleticism, and defense. This was Wall’s best season. Then, as predicted by analysis I did back in 2017, his performance dropped precipitously as he encountered a series of major injuries. He was out of the league after his age 32 season.
- John Wall | 2017-18 | Washington Wizards | Age: 27 — YOU SEE WHY I’M ANNOYED? The Machine is saying the Wizards of today have just committed long-term to a player very much like the John Wall who got hurt and got worse…right after signing an expensive long-term contract!
- Kemba Walker | 2017-18 | Charlotte Hornets | Age: 27 — Another small guard who was really good. Walker’s prime went from a 172 PPA at age 25 to a 166 at 29. Not bad. Except, after being an iron man in previous seasons, he started getting hurt at 29 — a pattern that persisted to the end of his playing career at 32.
There’s a trend here — quick guards who peaked early and declined quick. Guards who changed teams and got worse. Guards who started getting hurt and couldn’t stay healthy.
There are a few more hopeful comps further down the list. Names like Damian Lillard (though Lillard did eventually change teams and get worse), or Tim Hardaway who changed teams, did decline, but stayed fairly productive to age 34 — though with some injury issues after age 31.
The point here is one I’ve been making for years — smaller guards tend not to age well. As their quickness wanes, so does their production. And their health becomes an increasing issue as they approach and pass 30. When I’ve discussed this topic with coaches and executives around the league, I often hear variations on the idea that the “old” analysis of career trajectories isn’t applicable because guys take better care of themselves.
And maybe that’s true. It could be that it’ll be borne out in the data when we look back in 2036.
I’d still rather not have the Wizards staking a maximum contract on that idea.
Next up: Bub Carrington.
