I am asked occasionally if I ever bet on college football, and if so whether I have any betting tips. The theory, I think, is that as someone who has watched an unhealthy amount of college football over the past 30 or so years I must have some insight into the game. I don’t want to brag, but I think I have developed something of an understanding of how the wheels turn on the college gridiron.
And that is precisely why I don’t bet on it. I know enough to know what I don’t know. As Seth noted yesterday,
counting on 18 to 22 year olds to do anything consistently is a fool’s errand. They’re like squirrels, but 300 pounds and subject to buying expensive cars and/or staying out all night partying instead of getting nine hours of restorative sleep. College football is fun precisely because it’s unpredictable.
So go ahead and bet on it, strictly for fun and entertainment. Don’t wager money you can’t afford to lose, or that you mind losing. If you have even a scintilla of suspicion that you have a gambling problem seek help from a qualified addiction specialist.
Having said all that, if I were a betting man, I would be hammering the under in this weekend’s Georgia/Marshall game. According to the college football odds over at FanDuel your Georgia Bulldogs are currently a 39.5 point favorite over the Marshall Thundering Herd. I’m relatively confident Georgia will win this game. But I am also confident that Kirby Smart, who would rather his third string right guard get a series in the fourth quarter than that a degenerate like you or I makes some extra money, will pull the starters long before the margin in this one gets above five touchdowns.
And history is on my side. During Kirby’s tenure in Athens his team has been favored by more than 38 points on thirteen occasions. They have yet to cover the spread in one of those games. Once is an occurrence. Twice is a trend. But Kirby’s 0-12-1 record against the spread in potential blowouts is as close to a foreordained certainty as you will find in college football.
If Kirby has a choice between scoring to cover the spread and saving that one wrinkle on QB zone read for the Tennessee game you can rest assured the game is about to be kneeled out. If he has to choose between winning by 42 wNate Frazier in the endzone or 31 with Nate Frazier resting on the sideline to gear up for Austin Peay, Nate’s shoulder pads will be off and he will have ice strapped somewhere on or near his body. Do you understand? Georgia will not cover in this game.
But I still wouldn’t bet on it.
Go ‘Dawgs!!!
