Today we’re looking at the Guardians’ bullpen and what the pecking order should be when push comes to shove in the playoffs this season.
The data we’re going to look at is designed to help isolate pitchers’ individual performances and control for as many variables as possible. We’re going to look at FIP and xFIP, K% and BB%, and for the pitchers that have been used out of the bullpen, I’ve counted up the number of outings they have and the number of outings they’ve allowed 2+ ERs. I’ve also included
the number of IP they have in high leverage (going by FanGraphs’ definition) and their FIP and xFIP in those high leverage appearances.
The easiest place to start is probably at the top. By a wide margin, your top two guys are Cade Smith and Erik Sabrowski. I think you want to hand the ball to those two guys to get the final outs of the game in as many games as possible, and especially so with a lead. Using game 1 as an example, in a perfect world, we would get at least 6 IP out of Parker Messick. Then you use Sabrowski for 1 IP and then Cade for the 8th and 9th, and any outs Parker could get over 6 IP would help ease the load for Cade. As long as that is working, I don’t really see a need to go to anyone else, and with an off day on Sunday, you can just apply the same strategy with The Big Rig on Monday.
Now as we all know, nothing in the playoffs ever goes to plan, so we’re going to need some backup options. I think our next tier of guys is going to be Gaddis, Espino, Cantillo, and Herrin. The wrinkle here is if we use Cantillo for an inning in game 1 or 2, it likely reduces the effectiveness or even the ability to have the game 3 strategy be Joniel Espitillo (Dany Cantino? Jospino?). This isn’t necessarily a terrible situation. Foster Griffin appears like he could be a solid option for game 3. Especially if he can be piggy backed with Bibee or Cecconi. In that case, you really only need to get 3-4 innings from him.
Game 3 strategy aside, the next most experienced players in high leverage are Gaddis and Herrin. They both haven’t been great in high leverage, but they have had solid seasons overall, and they give you an arm for hitters on each side of the plate. I also have Espino in this category. He’s the pitcher that by far has the best looking numbers after Cade and Sabrowski, but he’s pitched in 0 high leverage innings, and there is risk there of him losing the strike zone and walking hitters. That’s something that’s even more of a recipe for disaster in the playoffs. He has shown he’s been able to pitch in back to back games this season, so there should be no problem with him pitching in game 1 or 2 and then being available as an opener in game 3 if needed (because of the off days).
The next set of guys are Armstrong, Bibee, Cecconi, Festa, and Griffin. For work out of the bullpen, I think I like Cecconi and Bibee the most, assuming Bibee can reach back for some extra velo if only being needed for an inning. Since being moved to the bullpen, in 13.2 innings of work, Cecconi has an xFIP of 3.55, so I don’t mind using him either. Griffin to me seems less likely to work in a bullpen role, because as a general rule, SPs that tend to do well in bullpen roles in the postseason usually have simpler pitch mixes and are more reliant on velocities, and that doesn’t seem to be his forte. But nothing would make me happier than for him to shove and be proved wrong!
The last few guys on the list are the ones I don’t really see a spot for on the playoff roster at all, at least in the ALDS. Yoho has struggled mightily vs. the White Sox, Logan Allen just isn’t good enough for a playoff spot, and Aleman and Peterson just don’t seem to have the experience you’d like yet for a playoff run.
To bring everything together, I think the perfect strategy revolves around getting the ball to Sabrowski and Cade Smith for the final 9 outs of the game in some way as much as you can. Having two different top tier SPs that only need to get you 6 innings gives you a real pathway to be able to do that. There’s also a couple of guys that have been good enough that it would still be fine to use them on occasion if needed. But I would heavily stress the “if needed” part of that equation, especially in a shorter series.
