It was a long and difficult road to get to this point, but over seven years after he was selected first overall in the 2018 MLB draft, Casey Mize will finally make his first postseason start for the Detroit Tigers. He finally has an opportunity to make a big impact on the franchise with a 1-0 lead in the best-of-three series. He’s also pitching the best baseball of his career.
After a mediocre start to his career from 2020 to early 2022, when he blew out his UCL and had Tommy John surgery, Mize still
didn’t set the world on fire in his 2024 return. His fastball velocity and movement improved over the course of the season, but his breaking stuff was still subpar and the splitter that had been his calling card in his Auburn and minor league days was still missing in action.
Mize wasn’t happy with the results, but despite a pretty lengthy recovery period after the surgery, it was still year one after major arm surgery and it doesn’t always come together right away. He attacked the offseason and spent extra time at Driveline Baseball trying to develop a slider that could get more whiffs and recapture his splitter.
The work was obvious in spring training. Mize was touching 97-98 mph with more consistently good induced vertical break, or riding action if you prefer. More importantly he’d come up with a pair of breaking balls at different speeds, one more a slower slurve with more depth and the harder slider with more horizontal movement. The latter has been a consistent force for him this season. The cherry on top was that Mize was throwing his splitter harder and the whiffs were finally starting to pick up. A breakout season looked like a real possibility.
In the first half of the season, Mize made good on that promise. He posted a 3.15 ERA in the first half, and while the strikeouts were still lacking and his projected numbers didn’t look great as a result, he attacked the strike zone, didn’t walk batters, and was the Tigers second most consistent starter behind Tarik Skubal. He missed a few starts in mid-May with a bit of a hamstring injury, but didn’t seem to miss a beat in June.
However, in July and August he hit a wall. His command faltered, the walks and the tough outings piled up, and when he got back under control in late July, he opened the month of August with a start in which he surrendered three home runs to the Minnesota Twins at home. Two outings later, he faced the Twins at Target Field and struck out 10 while allowing just four hits and a walk over 6 1/3 innings. And yet he gave up four runs in that start on August 16.
It was a strange game for him as his velocity was popping off a little, his command was really sharp, and he dominated the Twins other than one inning. He retired 11 in a row until a leadoff walk to Luke Keaschall was followed by a single, a Brooks Lee triple, and a sacrifice fly. Three runs scored in the span of a couple of minutes, and then Mize struck out three of the next four hitters he faced. He departed after a single in the seventh and that runner came around to score against Tyler Holton.
So it was a bad game in the books, but there were some encouraging signs, and that’s proved true in September. Mize still isn’t overpowering everyone, but his strikeout rate has spiked dramatically to 28.1 percent over his last five starts. He’s even cut his already very low walk rate all the way down to 3.5 percent in September. His velocity and command are both trending well, and those are the signs of a healthy pitcher throwing freely and letting it eat.
His ability to balance the high fourseamer with nasty sinkers at the bottom of the zone or jamming right-handed hitters has been crucial. For years he got himself into bad counts and couldn’t really rely on the splitter and high fourseamer to draw whiffs and weak contact to escape when in trouble. The lethal fastball command he’s shown recently has really opened up the rest of his game His 3.49 ERA in September wasn’t outrageously good, but the strikeouts are piling up and he is still pounding the strike zone relentlessly. Mize is pitching very well right now.
The Guardians last saw Mize on September 16 and put up three runs against him. He allowed them over 5 1 /3 innings with seven hits, one walk issued, and eight strikeouts. He allowed a solo shot to Gabriel Arias, while the other two runs came individually as the Guardians strung together hits. The Guardians left-handed hitters had a lot of trouble with the splitter in that game, and while like Tarik Skubal, Mize will probably try to mix in some surprises, his fastball and splitter command will be his bread and butter again in Game 2.
Casey Mize didn’t turn out to be the ace the Tigers hoped he would, but through perseverance he’s finally looking like a pretty good major league starter in the midst of a modest breakout. With the biggest test of his career in front of him, the timing couldn’t be better. The Tigers are going have to do better in the run support department than they did in Game 1, but the same can be said for the Guardians. If Mize can continue his role the Tigers will be in good shape to close out the Guardians and advance to the ALDS.
