Inspiration.
The Diamondbacks are above .500 and I’m excited that they could play in the postseason. At the same time, many starting pitchers are on the injured list, and there is delay in the return of Corbin Burnes. Also, performance at first base, left field, and center field are weak. Despite limited resources, how will the Diamondbacks improve their chances at the trade deadline?
The Diamondbacks are contending for a Wild Card.
If the season ended today, the Diamondbacks would be a Wild Card in the playoffs.
Looking at the other contenders, since the All
Star break the Diamondbacks have played very well against them, which is a positive for tiebreakers, if there are ties at the end of the season.
The following table compares the standings of the Diamondbacks and other contenders for the NL Wild Cards. Also, it shows the games between the Diamondbacks and those teams since the All Star break – the results of games played and the dates of future games.
In summary, the Diamondbacks are on track and strongly contending.
Acquisitions made impacts.
Instead of looking at every trade and acquisition, the first step was determine the biggest needs/opportunities of each team in the race. Acquisitions (in July and August) that filled those needs would likely impact the Wild Card race. The following table shows which needs were addressed (or not). It excluded players in the minors. A subjective evaluation of the impact on the Wild Card race is shown in the last column.
Pirates. My view is that the Pirates are doing everything they can to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Camilo Doval (relief pitcher) and Jacob Gonzalez (playing shortstop) will make a positive impact. Luke Weaver, who was a starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks from 2019 to 2022), was acquired as a relief pitcher with a career best ERA of 1.84. Despite not adding a starting pitcher, my view is they added two wins down the stretch of the Wild Card race.
Phillies. The Phillies made a solid improvement at second base by acquiring Luis Arraez. His batting is much better than Bryson Stott (OPS+ 127 vs 93). His defense at second base is much better (11 OAA vs 6 OAA). In addition, the Phillies acquired relief pitchers Caleb Kilian and Brooks Raley. My view is they added two wins down the stretch in the Wild Card race.
Padres. The Padres acquired two starting pitchers, Robbie Ray and Casey Mize. Ray pitched for the Diamondbacks for 6 seasons (2015 to 2020). In the next season (2021), he won the Cy Young. And Mize is having a career best season. My view is they added three wins down the stretch in the Wild Card race.
Nationals. The Nationals added Connelly Early (starting pitcher who should be off the injured list by late August), Tom Cosgrove & Yovanny Cruz (relief pitchers), and some pitching prospects. In September, their rotation will likely be at its peak.
On the other hand, the Nationals traded away two of their best batters (Curtis Mead with OPS+ of 134, and Luis Garcia Jr. with OPS+ of 137). In addition they traded away Foster Griffin for four pitching prospects. My take is that the overall impact is near zero.
The Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks need a starting pitcher, a left handed bat (either at first base or the outfield), and a relief pitcher (the recent collapse of Paul Sewald adds an exclamation point).
“There’s been a lot of conversation around a bunch of different stuff. So we’re mostly in the starting pitching/bat market. Some in the reliever market, just to stay involved in that.” — Mike Hazen
August will be difficult for the Diamondbacks. In August, they will play two teams contending for a NL Wild Card (Padres and Cubs), plus two first place teams (Dodgers and Braves). Although every win counts the same, my view is the most important series is with the Padres. The reason is that winning that 4-game series would make the most impact in keeping the Diamondbacks in a Wild Card position.
“I’m more worried about getting through August than what happens at the end of August and September. August is going to be particularly challenging for us with no off-days and probably the toughest run of games we’re going to have all year.” — Mike Hazen
The Diamondbacks added left-handed batter Lars Nootbaar, who plays in the outfield. This season, his batting is much better against right-handed pitchers (.737 OPS vs .483 OPS). He will likely play in left field.
My view is that the Diamondbacks added one win down the stretch in the Wild Card race.
Cardinals. My view is that the Cardinals were the team that did the least to improve their team prior to the trade deadline. My view is that they missed chances to improve their chances of reaching this season’s playoffs.
Summary.
The Diamondbacks are strongly contending for one of the NL Wild Cards. August will be challenging. Although they met only one of their needs, they improved their chances in the race by acquiring Lars Nootbaar at the trade deadline.
Although they did not acquire a starting pitcher, the Pirates did a lot to meet their needs and make the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
Although they did not acquire a starting pitcher, the Phillies made solid improvement in their team to ensure they retain their position as a Wild Card team.
Starting pitching was the primary need (perhaps the only need) for the Padres. It was impressive that they acquired two starting pitchers. They are strong contenders for the third Wild Card in the NL.
The Nationals addressed their pitching needs by trading away two of their top batters. And they traded away a relief pitcher for four prospects. The net impact may be zero.
Of the contenders for a NL Wild Card, the Cardinals did the least to improve their team prior to the trade deadline.
