I’m not even sure where to begin. When Clemson punted with 7:06 left in the 2nd quarter, Carolina ran it back to the Clemson 46 while holding a 17-3 lead. A 14-point lead, with the ball in field position that often results in points, had UNC fans feeling confident. To that point in the game and season, Clemson’s offense was 4-33 on third downs and had scored one touchdown. UNC already had 195 yards of offense, including 112 on the ground. The game seemed headed towards a UNC romp.
From that point
forward, Clemson would outscore UNC 25-3 and outgain the Tar Heels by 218 yards. Clemson’s comeback started slowly, gathered momentum, and then ended emphatically after a three hour weather delay.
Billy Edwards may have lost his job as UNC’s starting quarterback
You can blame me for Edwards’ meltdown. Midway through the second quarter, I contributed to the staff chat this observation: “Won’t be this game, but Billy Edwards’ inability to to hit downfield is going to be a problem.” To that point, Edwards had misfired on several downfield attempts to Shipp and Thurman, but the efficiency coming from the run game and short passing game had the offense moving the ball.
Edwards’ accuracy with longer throws was a concern coming into the game. Against TCU and ETSU, Edwards was 21-23 on throws travelling less than 10 yards downfield but only 10-24 on throws deeper than that. After the first quarter, Clemson adjusted, compressing their coverage and putting more pressure on the pocket. Their goal was clear — make Billy Edwards beat them with his arm on longer throws. And he couldn’t.
From the point in the first half that UNC had the ball at the Clemson 46 up 17-3, Edwards stat line was 7-16 for 56 yards and an interception. Edwards for the day finished 13-30 for 152 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Against this same Clemson defense, LSU threw for 334 yards, and Georgia Southern’s Max Johnson — yes, that Max Johnson — threw for 244. Edwards’ inability over three games to connect downfield consistently, with weapons like Jelani Thurman and Jordan Shipp at his disposal, was a fatal flaw against Clemson, one likely to be just as fatal against the rest of ACC competition.
Bill Belichick has a lot of thinking to do about his quarterback position. The question isn’t whether or not Edwards can elevate his game. It’s whether UNC has anyone in the QB room capable of performing better.
Clemson’s fast pace exposed UNC’s defensive depth and communication
UNC was down Melkart Abou Jaoude for this game. One aspect of depth is having a “next man up” at key positions. For MAJ, that’s Donovan Hoilette, who transferred from FCS Richmond. Hoilette finished the day with two tackles, and Clemson found some success working his edge in the run game. Hoilette contributed no sacks or QB pressures. Missing MAJ hurt.
The other aspect of depth is dealing with teams that will try to run pace, and Clemson enjoyed a lot of success when trying to move fast against Belichick’s defense. Clemson worked with pace on its final first half drive that ended with a field goal and sent the game into halftime down 17-6. The drive took over five minutes, but Clemson ran 18 plays and moved the ball 88 yards, going 3-4 on third downs. Clemson’s true freshman QB, Tait Reynolds, looked much more comfortable operating in that mode. Clemson kept it up in the 2nd half, averaging 7.3 yards per rush and 13.9 per pass attempt.
Initially, it appeared that physical fatigue might be the most significant issue with the pace, as UNC’s defense seemed gassed by the time weather put a halt to the game midway through the fourth quarter. However, after that three hour delay, Clemson’s first possession went 68 yards in four plays. It appears that moving quickly short-circuited defensive communication, both between the sidelines and the defensive captain as well as among the players on the field.
Expect to see more of this from opponents until UNC figures out the communication and substitution issues exposed by Clemson’s pace of play.
In two P4 games now, Bobby Petrino’s offense disappears after the first quarter
UNC against TCU and Clemson scored 24 points in the opening frame. In the succeeding six quarters of play, UNC’s offense has managed all of nine points. In the first quarter against TCU, UNC averaged 7.42 yards per play on 19 plays. Against Clemson in the first, UNC averaged 6.7 yards per play on 19 plays. In the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters of those two games, UNC has averaged 4.56 yards per play. UNC’s 2-11 on third down conversions in the second half of those games. Any way you cut it, the offense starts hot and then somehow turns into last year’s offense.
The play-calling, long considered Petrino’s wheelhouse, was odd at times in this game as well. For the moment, we’ll begin and end with the 4th and one play late that sealed UNC’s fate. Edwards’ struggles with accuracy the further downfield the play design were noted above. UNC needed a yard to sustain a drive that had to end in points. Petrino called for a play action shot deep downfield to Jelani Thurman, a play which didn’t fool Clemson and a pass from Edwards that gave Thurman no chance at making a catch or drawing a flag.
With only a two game sample to work with, the overly simple explanation appears to be that Petrino’s initial game plan works spectacularly well. Then, opponents adjust, and UNC has no answers to the adjustments. The QB issues noted above contribute to that, but unless Belichick is forcing his hand, Petrino’s chosen the QB he feels represents UNC’s best chance to win games.
Bill Belichick’s team collapsed against Clemson. The remote chance remains that Clemson rips through much of its remaining schedule in the same way it ripped through UNC after finding its footing late in the first half. However, Clemson’s success came through superior scheme and execution, not overwhelming talent. The Tar Heels’ future opponents were taking notes. With a bye week to prepare for Notre Dame, Belichick has two weeks to figure out how to not let that game be completely embarrassing. Then, Belichick has get back on the winning side of football games in UNC’s final eight. If he doesn’t, those will be the final eight games of Belichick’s coaching career.
