Warriors mailbag: The draft, the offseason, and Steve Kerr

The offseason is underway for the Golden State Warriors, which seemed like a good time to answer some mailbag questions. Thanks to everyone who responded to the prompt in The Feed.

ScottWarrior:
1. who do you like for the Warriors at 11?

2. Will the Warriors trade the pick or draft a player and keep him?

3. If you had to pick a number, how many seasons away are we from Steph’s retirement?

It’s hard to answer the first question without answering the second question first; and it’s hard to answer the second question!

Ultimately, I think the Warriors will try fairly hard to trade the pick, simply because they’re going to explore every possibility to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, and any other All-NBA caliber talent. I expect them to fail in that endeavor, which means they’ll probably keep the pick. Given what we know of the front office’s recent frustrations, it seems very unlikely to me that they would trade a lottery pick for a role player. Everything will be on the table for a star, but nothing will be on the table for a sixth man.

As to whom they pick, assuming they stay at No. 11, that also depends on so many factors. Most importantly: is Steve Kerr the coach? If so, then I would anticipate a polished player who can slot into the rotation fairly early — partially because that’s the type of player Kerr works best with, and partially because Kerr’s return increases the odds of signing/retaining quality veterans that can make the Warriors competitive, which will further enforce the idea of chasing the current timeline, rather than the future one.

For those reasons (I expect Kerr to stay), I like Yaxel Lendeborg. He’s one of the highest-floor prospects in the draft, and, critically, fits both the offensive and defensive schemes. I will sympathize with any and all calls for the Dubs to chase a higher-ceiling player, but I’m hesitant to do that towards the end of the lottery. If they luck out and get a top-four pick, on the other hand…

As for Steph Curry’s retirement, if I absolutely had to pick a number, I would say three more seasons (but I think four is far more likely than two). Curry is aging like the quality of wine that he can afford to drink (must be nice), but I don’t see him as a player who is going to attempt to keep his career around as long as possible. He has too many interests — his family, his potential golf career, his numerous business pursuits, among others — to chase every last minute on the court. And he deals with enough injuries and ailments that I can’t imagine the reward will be worth the price of admission in a few years.

Here’s my bold prediction though: Curry and the Warriors will go the same route as Buster Posey and the San Francisco Giants, with Curry becoming a minority owner and a member of the board within a few years of his retirement (just don’t expect him to pull a Posey and try to oust Mike Dunleavy Jr.).

SantaCruz351:
1. What’s your latest take on how likely Steve Kerr is to stay?

2. If he stays, how many more seasons?

thanks

I think at this point it is extremely likely that Kerr stays, for the reasons I laid out last week. If he had wanted to leave, he likely would have chosen that already. The longer the indecision drags on, the more likely he is to return, as it points to the meetings being about the details rather than actual decisions.

It does feel to me like the goal for the Warriors is to line up Kerr’s timeline with Curry’s, and I think that will happen. My prediction is that he re-signs on a three-year deal, with Curry signing a two-year extension this summer, and everyone can target the 2028-29 season as the final run for that historic duo.

SantaCruz351:
I thought of one more.

Since your post-game player grades are so interesting, how about doing Final player grades for the entire season? Sort of a basketball final exam if you will.

thanks

I have thought about doing that and this is a good reminder. I’ll get to it this week. Thanks!

Nopelongpause:
When will the fan base stop hating on Podz? Does he need to be traded as he’s

A. One of the only players they have that other teams would want and

B. So universally hated by the fans for no reason I can tell. (Heard people hating on his hair?)

Sort of a joke question but still

The disdain for Brandin Podziemski is at times odd, but at other times kind of funny. I will say though, this is a case where the internet is not always reflective of other forms of reality. Podz gets a lot of late from the online segment of the fanbase, but he’s still a pretty popular player at the arena. I would say the average fan loves his energy and heart, his willingness to put his body on the line to make any play, and his craftiness (his unending support of the Valkyries is also great).

But the online segment of the fanbase? Sometimes they just latch on to people. Podziemski has said a few corny things in his career, and as Karl-Anthony Towns has proven, no amount of success on the court will shake that label.

JDGJDG:
How in the world can the Warriors realistically become a legit contender again?

Well, they seem to think the answer is by acquiring a superstar. Antetokounmpo or Leonard, anyone? How about LeBron James?

That would certainly help, though it’s not particularly realistic, I fear. They’ll try like hell, though, and they’ve pulled it off before.

Otherwise, the plan is simple, if not particularly easy. They need a sprinkle of more talent and a dash of updating their schemes. I’m not fully convinced that the Warriors can’t be competitive running it back (which means re-signing Kristaps Porziņģis) and getting a healthy Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody for the second half of the season. But you can’t rely on that, so they need to do something a little more substantive (I’m curious to see if Porziņģis’ second-half surge boosted his value, and if he could be a sign-and-trade piece now, though I’m doubtful).

People will be quick to point out that the Warriors can’t rely on the health of Curry and Butler, and that’s true. But here’s the reality: the Warriors days of being title favorites are gone, and they’re not coming back for many, many years. But just because you’re not title favorites doesn’t mean you can’t be contenders, and just because you’re merely a contender doesn’t mean you can’t become a champion. Exhibit A: the Golden State Warriors in 2022.

If you’re a contender, you need a little bit of luck to really compete for a title, and for the next few years, that luck will likely have to come on the injury front if the Warriors have any chance of surpassing the West’s elite in the postseason.

Onepunman:
Will Draymond exercise his player option?

Draymond Green is a hard one to figure out. We know he wants to stay with the Warriors, but as he showed a few years ago when he almost signed with the Memphis Grizzlies, he also wants to play somewhere where he is appreciated and compensated accordingly. Green has been very introspective about his current relationship with the organization, and how he doesn’t want to hang around just to hang around. But with Kerr likely coming back, it seems all but certain that Golden State will want Draymond to stick around. So my guess is that he doesn’t exercise his player option, and instead negotiates a new deal three-year deal with the Warriors for a lower annual value. That will line him up with Curry and Kerr, while also giving the Warriors more flexibility this offseason.

scizzorhands:
Draft content. Options for trading down and/or trading to get more picks in the 2026 draft.

I’d be surprised if they trade their first-round pick for anything other than a star player. It seems unlikely that they would want to trade down to get more draft picks, and put more young, raw players on the roster, though they’ll probably do something in the second round, because that’s just what they do. But with the first-round pick, they’ll want to get the best player they can, rather than multiple lesser players.

Thanks for the questions, everyone!