Establishing the ideal run-pass variance in an NFL is a challenging balancing act that often looks different for every team. Analytics strongly suggest clubs should be throwing it more than they’re running it, but when you’re a team with an elite back in his prime like the Buffalo Bills there’s always going to be a push from outside observers to more prominently feature the run game.
After Cook only received eight carries through the first three quarters and 12 total in Buffalo’s Week 4 loss to the Patriots,
the magnitude of said push intensified.
And sometimes the key to optimizing the ground game stems from when a running play is utilized.
Teams should still be passing on early downs more than they’re running it… particularly when your quarterback is Josh Allen. I wrote about this very philosophy and the logic behind it after Week 1 when the Bills scored 36 points in Houston and did so while throwing on first and second down at the sixth-highest rate among all teams.
After Weeks 1 and 2, the Bills had the eighth-highest early-down passing frequency at 58.0% in non-garbage time scenarios.
In those first two games, Buffalo’s offense was fourth in EPA per play in non-garbage time.
While we can’t be sure the early-down passing caused the outstanding EPA per play for Buffalo’s offense in those opening weeks, the correlation can’t be ignored.
In the next two games that followed, the Bills decided to move away from early-down passing. Their 47.4% pass rate in those scenarios ranked 10th-lowest in Weeks 3 and 4 combined.
Did that track with EPA per play generated by Buffalo’s offense in those contests? Yes it did. The Bills dipped to 16th in EPA per play those two weeks combined.
In the aftermath of the loss to the Patriots, likely all the dedicated pass-game enthusiasts like myself would probably agree Cook needs to get handed the football more than 12 times in a tight game.
HOWEVER, I’m simultaneously advocating for the Bills to take to the air on early downs. In today’s NFL, when margins are as slim as ever, these type of decisions matter.
And staying dedicated to early-down passing has proven to be key to efficiently moving the football.
Sprinkle in Cook when the defense least expects it.
