Traveling to Morgantown has traditionally been a struggle for the Frogs, especially going back to the Dana Holgorsen years. Unfortunately for TCU’s Big 12 entry twin, they’re hobbling through the middle of the season in Rich Rodriguez’s second stint for the Mountaineers. After a 2-1 start, the Mountaineers have been ravaged by the injury bug despite being significantly disadvantaged from a talent standpoint to begin with. Nicco Marchiol has leveraged his foot injury into a redshirt year as reports
would have it, lead running back Jaheim White is out for the year, and none of the QB replacements have had a positive TD to INT ratio. This weekend’s matchup is much easier on the eyes for TCU than the rest of the season’s slate, with a bye week to help delineate.
Offense
As prefaced, WVU is looking for a steadying presence on offense after losing their starting backfield to to injury for the year. Whomever finds themself blessed enough to be named the starting quarterback for the week will likely be gifted a short leash and an opportunity to run for their life from funky blitz packages designed by Andy Avalos. Freshmen Scotty Fox Jr. and Khalil Wilkins have been the beneficiaries of this unfettered rotation, with both completing less than half of their passes. With uncertainty through the air, expect a number of designed runs to utilize their athleticism.
It’s a shame they can’t get the ball to the perimeter because their best remaining offensive weapon is receiver Cam Vaughn. The sophomore transfer from Jacksonville State had his breakout moment in game 1 against Bobby Mo with 7 receptions for 126 yards and a TD, but has yet to surpass 3 perceptions in a game since. The absence of Marchiol is certainly felt in Vaughn’s production, but the staff is finding new ways to get him involved as he’s scored in 2 of the last 3 games. Aside from Vaughn, the Mountaineers rely on the quick pass game with Rodney Ghallager in the slot and Tight End Grayson Barnes on the seams and in the middle to add a little color to the playbook.
Beyond the QBs in the run game, the burgeoning star of the WVU offense is Diore Hubbard. He’s toting the rock behind the solid Mountaineer line in Jaheim White’s absence and stacked 3 straight games with a touchdown on the ground. No position group is immune to rotation with 4 straight losses so expect Hubbard to be spelled occasionally by Cyncir Bowers and Clay Ash. With each of these backs averaging less than 3.1 yards per carry, however, the potency is siloed based on the limitations of the pass game. The Frogs should be able to showcase the strengths of their defense with a heavy 3-man front and Jamel Johnson & Austin Jordan in the box killing what the front spills.
Defense
The defense is tasked with a tough assignment each week with an offense struggling this hard, dealing with quick changes and short fields. In the middle of it is Colorado State transfer Chase Wilson. After cashing in on 5 solid years at the G5 level, Wilson comes into this game with 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 4.5 tackles for loss. Reid Carrico is his counterpart in the middle of the defense and the two have accounted for 63 tackles so far this year. If the Frogs can reach the second level quickly and keep these linebackers out of their gaps, Kevorian Barnes should excel on the ground.
Standing before them is a rather unremarkable defensive line with little to no impact on the stat sheet, on an individual basis. Good for the occasional splash play is defensive tackle Edward Vesterinen, being that he’s the only healthy d-linemen registering 2 sacks or more. The Mountaineers run a similar front to TCU, so the emphasis is on doing the thankless job of absorbing double teams or getting push to stretch the run game into the flats. They should be used to defending the run at this point, giving up over 30 points per game and chasing double digit deficits to end the last 4 games.
In the secondary, WVU schematically does a good job of getting in the passing lanes. Once again similar to the Frogs, Darrian Lewis is the Jamel Johnson of their safety group; playing in the box and neutralizing the seams and curls, plus tackling well in open space on the edges in run support. Fred Perry operates as their Austin Jordan, utilizing a similar role on the short side of the field. With as much run defense as they’ve had to play, these DBs have stacked up 87 tackles between the two of them. That should remain constant this week as the Frogs get to the second level with ease and press the running game issue.
Overall
This is a spiraling offense that has struggled to put up points, even in trash time against the mid-quartile defenses of the Big 12. Injuries have plagued them and their backup plan behind Marchiol has been absent, to be frank. TCU should be able to defend whatever attacks they draw up without having to get too deep in the Avalos bag of tricks. Conversely, the Frogs need to lean into their newfound rushing identity and feed Barnes & Battle against an ill-equipped defensive front. Assuming they can draw WVU’s hard-nosed safeties up to the line of scrimmage with the run, Hoover should be able to spread the wealth among McAlister, Dwyer, and Rogers as they take their 6th win into the bye week. Anything outside of them covering the 15.5 point spread is cause for concern, this is simply a business trip.
