There are three games around the National Football League this Sunday that feature two 0-1 teams fighting it out to avoid 0-2, and the Dallas Cowboys find themselves in one on America’s Game of the Week. The Cowboys learned the hard way that the New York Giants have seemingly closed the gap on competition in the division by beating them in week one, and now will learn where the Washington Commanders are at when they host them in the late afternoon window.
Both the Cowboys offense and defense had major
letdown moments in week one that make it hard to pinpoint which unit is under more pressure to perform in week two, or which has the better chance to do so in a matchup against Dan Quinn, Jayden Daniels, and the Commanders.
Last week’s forecast for a Cowboys loss called for Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo having their way on the edge against the Cowboys defense, something they did while also mainly exploiting the swing pass in the flat to Devin Singletary in big moments. Christian Parker’s defense will be tested in a bit of a similar way against the dual-threat ability of Daniels.
Let’s get into this week’s potential win or lose scenarios for the Cowboys in their home opener.
The Dallas Cowboys will beat the Washington Commanders if…
they can push the ball downfield on offense.
Playing in front of home fans for the first time in 2026, the Cowboys draw a Commanders defense that allowed only ten first downs in their opening road loss to the Eagles, but six yards per play. Dontayvion Wicks caught a 64 yard pass, Devonta Smith had a 31 yarder, and tight end Dallas Goedert scored on the Commanders from 43 yards out for one of two touchdowns.
In last year’s home game against the Commanders, CeeDee Lamb caught a 74 yard touchdown, George Pickens had a 44 yard reception, and Jake Ferguson, KaVontae Turpin, plus Jalen Tolbert all had a catch of at least 15 yards.
Washington put a lot of trust in their cornerbacks to hold up in single coverage in week one, where Amik Robertson and Mike Sainristill had their struggles. The Cowboys receivers should be licking their lips to get after this secondary, but the other element that has to hold up for this to be a coming out game for the pass offense is of course pass protection.
The Giants were aggressive defensively in bringing pressure against the Cowboys, and Dallas actually handled extra rushers fairly well in some spots. It was more a lack of push in the run game paired with lack of separation and creativity out wide that boxed in the Cowboys offense. If the Cowboys can be even better in this area against a Commanders defense that could be even more aggressive, with Sonny Styles, Frankie Luvu, and Odafe Oweh all having a sack against Jalen Hurts, the chances to take shots downfield and play from ahead should be there in this game.
Luvu will not play in this game, and Styles is still a rookie the Cowboys should put to the test in coverage as much as possible.
The Cowboys will lose to the Commanders if…
the middle of their defense does not play better.
Cowboys fans are all too familiar with this team’s defense being indifferent to getting great, or just good enough, play at safety. Come to think of it, it’s been a little while since they’ve been strong at linebacker too, with last year being the absolute crater of a low point at this position especially. Defensive tackle is the spot they’ve put the most recent work in, and unfortunately this group also left a ton to be desired against the Giants.
Put these three positions together and you get something along the lines of the old baseball adage that a team can’t truly compete unless they’re strong all the way up the middle (catcher, pitcher, shortstop, centerfield). The Cowboys find themselves in position to have to get right up the middle in a hurry, needing to avoid a disastrous 0-2 hole.
Starting from the backend and working in, the Cowboys safety group was in position to make a lot more plays than they did in week one. P.J. Locke came close to defending a few passes, so did Caleb Downs, Jalen Thompson or Malik Hooker, but the Giants caught every crucial contested pass while going 9-11 on third down to win the game.
At linebacker, things were even more bleak for the Cowboys, where rookie Jaishawn Barham struggled, Demarvion Overshown didn’t start strong and then got injured, and Dee Winters was a non-factor. Kenny Clark, Quinnen Williams, and the rest of the DT group couldn’t stop the Giants from staying on schedule offensively with great push in the interior run game.
To make matters worse against the Commanders this Sunday, the Cowboys will be without Overshown and Hooker. The Commanders offense is also built to attack the middle of the field, where Daniels had success against the Eagles (where Parker’s scheme derived from too), judging by this passing chart.
Also via Next Gen Stats, Daniels led the NFL in week one in time to throw at 3.4 seconds. The Eagles had just one sack, and a Cooper DeJean hit on Daniels for the entire game. The Cowboys defense also left a lot to be desired in pass rush, so if they’re not getting to Daniels, they’ll need to be better at winning 50/50 balls in the air to have a chance at getting off the field.
Washington’s backfield combination of Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Rachaad White is also built to test the Cowboys up the middle, but with the ability to pop an off tackle run for a huge gain at any moment. The Commanders have been searching for a statement type of win for a long time, and will likely feel this Cowboys team presents their best chance to get it despite not winning in Arlington since 2020. They’ll get this confidence both from how the Giants attacked the Cowboys, and how they were only a few plays and penalties away from upsetting the Eagles in week one.
Even in a win, the Cowboys will need better linebacker and safety play to be a contending team as this season wears on anyway, but to get win number one it must come quickly to not let the Commanders run wild.
