It’s been quite a long wait for ‘Cats faithful, but that wait is over.
Why?
It’s bowl week. That’s why.
Friday is make-or-break for Northwestern. Sitting at 6-6, the GameAbove Sports Bowl decides whether
the ‘Cats finish above or below .500. In other terms, the final game of the season will be the ultimate determinant as to how much David Braun has moved the needle for NU in year three.
If 2025 has taught us anything about Northwestern football, it’s that anything can happen. Anything. From upsets to collapses, triumphs and tribulations, Wildcat football has brought more than its fair share of uncertainty this season.
The question of how it will end seems to bring the most uncertainty of all this year.
So, it’s important to look at both sides of the equation: how may Northwestern win? How many Northwestern lose? Two of the most important questions this season — questions that we’ve asked ourselves twelve times in the past couple of months, but questions that’ll weigh the heaviest they have since the last time the ‘Cats were bowl eligible in 2023.
How Northwestern gets the job done
NU wins on Friday by keeping it simple: run the ball.
It’s clear that the ‘Cats have proven themselves to have one of the best running offenses in the Big Ten, and possibly in the nation. Since week three against Oregon, the Wildcat offense has been a near-even split between rushing and passing yardage. Caleb Komolafe has provided a career year for NU, finishing with 714 yards of rushing in conference play — seventh in the Big Ten and only 21 fewer than a future draft prospect in Ohio State’s Bo Jackson. Zach Lujan rallied each game scheme around the redshirt sophomore, consistently calling his number in critical third down situations to pick up chunk yardage, setting up the rest of the offense for success.
What’s interesting about this year’s run game for Northwestern is that its success wasn’t limited to only one player. Joe Himon II was just as elite out of the backfield as his counterpart as RB2, and Dashun Reeder also had his moments in his first year of action, averaging over 10 yards per carry on his 22 attempts this season.
Even Robby Preckel, a tight end recruit for NU, flourished in the backfield, totaling 82 yards as the only running back available against Illinois.
The math is simple: run the ball, beat the Chippewas. Central Michigan has allowed 151 rushing yards per game, which ranks in the bottom half of the MAC and would be the sixth worst in the Big Ten.
Against teams that defend the run worse than Central Michigan (Nebraska, Purdue and UCLA, specifically), NU had seen high levels of success running the football, averaging 201 rushing yards against said teams. This bowl matchup plays right into the ‘Cats hands: the cards they’ve been dealt speak to their strengths.
All that’s left for them to do is to capitalize.
How Northwestern may lose Friday
The ‘Cats need to keep it simple in Detroit: no fancy play designs, no exotic blitzes, no need to over-disguise coverages. Northwestern wins by playing classic Big Ten football, which is characterized by ground-and-pound, physical play.
The downfall for the ‘Cats may come through the pass game, which, if overexposed, can be Northwestern’s ultimate demise.
Preston Stone wasn’t the quarterback that ‘Cats faithful hoped he’d be this season. Many thought that with time to adjust to the Big Ten, he’d return to his 2023 form, when he finished with the third-highest PFF QB rating in the FBS. The opposite ended up being true, with the graduate student struggling against Big Ten powerhouses in Oregon and USC.
However, his most recent performance against rival Illinois was the most concerning heading into bowl week, as Stone totaled three turnovers in the second half that led to the Wildcats’ demise. If Friday is a repeat performance, in terms of quarterback play, it bodes terribly for the rest of the team.
The Illinois game was a showcase of how elite the Northwestern defense can be. The “bend, don’t break” mentality of the secondary was on full display, as time and time again, the ‘Cats would keep the Illini at bay and flip the field in the offense’s direction.
However, the efforts of the defense went unrewarded.
Although unlikely against a Group of Five opponent like CMU, the prospect of Stone’s gas tank running low down the stretch is still worrisome. If one mistake follows another and NU falls down the rabbit hole of squandered opportunities, it can only spell disaster in the bowl game.
Simply put, it’ll be on Stone’s shoulders to keep the defense off the field for as long as possible and capitalize on his opportunities to make an impact on the other side of the ball.
