Tennessee is back in the Sweet 16 again, fresh off of a win over Virginia in the round of 32. It’s the Volunteers fourth straight appearance in the Sweet 16, now with a chance to make their third straight Elite Eight.
Tennessee runs into No. 2 seed Iowa State on Friday night in Chicago. The Cyclones thumped a Kentucky team last weekend that frankly didn’t look all that interested in being there during the second half. Senior guard Tamin Lipsey poured in 26 points while sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic
scored 20 points on 4-9 shooting from three-point range.
The Iowa State defense forced a staggering 20 turnovers, powering their dominance in the second half. Now the Cyclones draw a team much like them, another one that hangs their hat on the defensive side of the ball.
Iowa State at a glace
Head coach TJ Otzelberger is finishing up year No. 5 leading Iowa State. The former assistant coach for the Cyclones returned to lead the program ahead of the 2021-22 season, just making his third Sweet 16 in five seasons. Otzelberger is 124-52 overall during his time as Iowa State’s head coach.
Iowa State boasts one of the best defensive units in all of college basketball, ranking fifth in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. They give up 65 points per game, which is good for 12th in the nation. The Cyclones for 15.4 turnovers per game, which ranks sixth in the country.
No slouch offensively, Iowa State puts up 82.5 points per game. They shoot a big percentage from three-point range (38.7 percent, 13th in the nation), powered by Milan Momcilovic. The 6-8, 225 pounder is over 49 percent from deep this year, connecting on 134 of 272 attempts.
Iowa State’s second leading scorer, senior forward Joshua Jefferson, is a major question this week. He suffered an ankle injury in the Cyclones’ opening-round win against Tennessee State and missed the Kentucky matchup. He’s currently on a scooter to keep weight off his ankle, but hopes to return against the Volunteers. Jefferson averages 16.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, checking in at 6-9, 240 pounds.
Tamin Lipsey creates an interesting point guard matchup, set to go up against Ja’Kobi Gillespie. Both had big second round games, with Lipsey coming up with 26 points, ten assists and five steals.
Key results for Iowa State this season
Iowa State enters this round with a 29-7 overall record and a 12-6 mark in Big 12 play. The Cyclones began 16-0 on the year, racking up early wins over St. John’s, at Purdue, Iowa, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. They took their first loss of the season on the road at Kansas, 84-63. They would drop their second of the season during the next game against Cincinnati. The Cyclones were up and down in the middle of the conference slate, navigating a tough Big 12 field. They ultimately ended up finishing tied for third.
Key Wins: Kansas, Houston, Texas Tech, at Purdue, St. John’s
Key Losses: at Kansas, at Cincinnati, at BYU, at TCU, Arizona (twice), Texas Tech (Big 12 Tournament)
Common Opponents with Tennessee: Mississippi State (Win, 96-80 at a neutral site), Syracuse (Win, 95-64 at a neutral site), Kansas (W/L), Houston (Win, 70-67)
Tennessee’s early outlook against Iowa State
There’s obviously a giant unknown here with the status of Joshua Jefferson, which would tip the scales Tennessee’s way. Setting that aside for a second, the turnover battle looms large. We know how much Tennessee struggled in that department for parts of this season, and it certainly could show up again on Friday against Iowa State.
This game comes down to Ja’Kobi Gillespie on first glance. Tennessee has gotten huge performances so far from him in the first two games, and they’ll need another one here. At the very least, Gillespie is going to have play clean basketball and keep the offense moving. It’ll be a bonus if he can continue his 50+ shooting percentage from three.
Another obvious factor will be who Tennessee throws at Milan Momcilovic. That 6-8 size is going to test the Volunteers, who will likely have the 6-5 Amari Evans and 6-4 Bishop Boswell on him for a good bit of this game. Obviously Nate Ament can match his size at 6-10 on the wing.
And finally, as they have been all season long, the Tennessee bigs are the x-factors. On Sunday, the Volunteers got 20 combined points from J.P. Estrella and Jaylen Carey, who shot a combined 8-9 from the field. Estrella’s bucket late was massive, helping earn Tennessee control for the finish. Tennessee’s at their best when those guys are really working the paint, but the offense feels forced at times when they’re not up to speed.
Tip-off is set for 10:10 p.m. ET in Chicago on Friday night. Iowa State remains a 4.5 point favorite.
