With the basketball season tipping off (unofficially, of course) in Lexington tonight, it’s tempting to pretend like Purdue football no longer exists. As much as I’d like to move on to a more tasteful subject, I’m contractually obligated to continue covering football until there is no more football left to cover.
Therefore, I present, without further comment…
What To Expect When Expecting Rutgers
Offense
Rutgers currently sits at 3-4 (0-4 in the Big 10). Their season mirrors Purdue, except they traded Miami (OH) for Notre Dame. That’s where the extra
win comes from. These are essentially the same teams.
Their offense has gotten progressively worse as competition has increased. They started the season by putting 34 points on Ohio (they needed all 34 because the Bobcats put up 31), but have only managed 19 points against Washington and 10 against Oregon in their previous two outings.
Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has gone the distance for Greg Schiano’s team, and results have been mixed at best. On the season, he’s completed 146 out of 234 passes (62%) for 1864 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Those are career-high numbers for the Minnesota transfer, but let’s be honest, the bar wasn’t set very high. At best, Kaliakmanis is a serviceable Big 10 quarterback.
In the past, Rutgers hasn’t required a stud quarterback because it has been focused on pounding the rock. Greg Shiano’s entire brand is “run the football, play solid defense, profit”. The run game and defense haven’t been up to their usual standards, and Rutgers hasn’t won a Big Ten conference game yet.
Kaliakmanis is coming off one of the worst statistical games I’ve seen from a Power 4 quarterback. He attempted 25 passes and completed eight to his team and two to Oregon defenders. Seeing a modern college football team throw for 79 yards in a game is shocking. Purdue didn’t score against Northwestern, but they still managed to cobble together 218 passing yards.
No one is going to confuse Purdue’s secondary with Oregon’s, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Rutgers would rather run the ball against this Purdue defense than try to complete a pass. After watching the Boilermakers give up 232 yards to Northwestern on the ground last week, I can almost guarantee Rutgers will attempt to win this game on the ground.
That means sophomore back Antwan Raymond is going to carry the load for the offense. That should give every Purdue fan indigestion. Raymond is a 5’11”, 205-pound back who specializes in yards after contact. So far, he’s accumulated 485 of his 612 yards after contact. On average, after a defender hits him, he continues moving forward for another four yards. To put that in perspective, Mockobee averages 3.25 yards after contact, and that’s probably his best trait as a runner.
Rutgers is going to line up, zone block, hand the ball to Raymond, and hope for the best. In this instance, the best-case scenario is Raymond replicating his 161-yard, 13 first down, two-touchdown performance against Minnesota. When Raymond gets the ball, in general, he’s headed one of two places.
When he goes left, he’s going all the way left. He has 22 carries for 117 yards and 10 of his 44 first downs off the left edge.
When he’s not pushing the ball to the left edge, look for him to plough straight ahead in either A-Gap, where he has 33 attempts for 190 yards and eight first downs. He’s also found some success in the B-Gap behind his right guard. Again, if he’s going left, he’s going wide; otherwise, he’s tucking in behind the right side of his offensive line, staying inside, and grinding out 3–5-yard runs. I see no reason for Rutgers to go away from Raymond in this game. Purdue can’t stop the run, and Rutgers doesn’t want to throw the ball.
It seems like a simple concept, and Schiano isn’t the type of coach who goes away from what’s working. If Purdue wants the opportunity to drop a couple Kaliakmanis interceptions, they’re going to have to force Rutgers to throw the ball. Otherwise Schiano is going to see if Raymond can put up enough points on his own to win the game.
Defense
Rutgers does what most bad college football teams do. They pair an inconsistent offense with a consistently poor defense. That should seem familiar to Purdue fans, because that’s why both teams find themselves searching for a Big 10 win this deep into the season.
The good news for the Boilermakers is that Rutgers struggles to stop the quarterback run game, and with Browne out, Malachi Singleton may be able to win this game with his legs.
Rutgers vs Running QBs
Ohio
Parker Navarro – 9 attempts – 93 yards – 1 td
Miami (Ohio)
DeQuan Finn – 11 attempts – 85 yards – 1 td
Iowa
Mark Gronowski – 13 attempts – 55 yards – 3 tds
Washington
Desmond Williams Jr. – 13 attempts – 136 yards – 2 tds
Oregon
Dante Moore – 3 attempts – 49 yards
Brock Thomas – 1 attempt – 15 yards
As you can see, the Rutgers defense is as good at stopping the quarterback run as Purdue’s defense is at stopping 3rd down conversions. I see no reason for Singleton not to have 20+ carries in this game. Once they have to focus on stopping Malachi, maybe, just maybe, Mockobee can find some running room to the outside with the read option. If Purdue can force the defensive end to crash down because Singleton is eating up yards between the tackles, maybe Devin can finally shake loose. If he does, it sure would be nice to see him shake a few tackles. It’s almost like Mockobee can either have ball security or break tackles. His unorthodox, arms windmilling, crazy legs, running style opens him to more fumbles, but it’s also what makes him a good running back. I miss “Crazy Legs” Mockobee and hope he makes an appearance against Rutgers.
Purdue’s passing game doesn’t have to be great if it can get the run game working, and Purdue’s passing game isn’t going to be great with Singleton at the helm. The Boilermakers don’t need to hit many passes, but a few explosive plays would be nice. The receivers will see plenty of single coverage. I keep hearing that Nitro Tuggle is a menace in the open field, but I’ve yet to see it. A low-volume, high-production, breakout game for Nitro, or any receiver for that matter, would be a significant boost to the cause.
It’s tough to win a game 3-5 yards at a time without the occasional big play.
In Summary
Two bad football teams are playing tomorrow.
Rutgers wants to run the ball.
Purdue should want to run the ball.
Whichever team can execute in the run game and limit turnovers *should* win this game. I have no idea which team will be, nor am I positive that either team can consistently execute in the run game. Nor am I positive the team that executes best in the run game will win because both squads have found creative ways to lose college football games this season.
Hopefully, the Boilermakers figure it out.
If not, we can all find sanctuary in Purdue basketball. Rutgers doesn’t have that to fall back on.
