The LSU Tigers face a tough Arkansas side in an SEC match up on Saturday. Can LSU get a win after a pretty terrible outing last time?
From third down efficacy, player props, team defense/offense numbers,
team totals and more, we will have a little bit of everything as we roll on this season. What will this week bring?
Last season we ended with a negative record for the first time, but still ended up positive because of some big swings we took odds wise (2022: 19-17, 2023: 19-17, 2024: 16-20) and we hope to do better this time around. We hope to earn a winning week this time. (10-17 in 2025)
Today, we take a look at predicting three specific areas for the team. Remember these are bold(ish) predictions. (All stats via CFBSTATS)
1 Arkansas Third Down Conversion Rate UNDER 50%
A reverse one on our usual pick, The pick is 2-0, but this time we will take the Razorbacks to be the team to have under fifty percent conversion on third down. LSU’s defense is the small highlight on this team as they have played okay as of late and really all season.
Arkansas meanwhile struggle to create any offense let alone any explosives, so this one is based on that match up. The game can go in many ways, but I just don’t see these Arkansas players getting one over on the defense. Take the under on this one.
2 Caden Durham UNDER 32.5 Yards Rushing
What once was old reliable has really been depleted. This one will be based mostly on Garrett Nussmeier’s availability, but I do think the Tigers can have some success on the ground in this one. That just probably won’t be with Durham.
The handicap is really just lack of production in the last few games here and that LSU can be just a bit better than Arkansas on the ground with the other backs. Durham will get some carries, but none to get to this number.
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3 First Half UNDER 29.5 (FanDuel -110)
A real chance to hit this one. Two lackluster teams with no real motivation for the rest of the season. LSU will want to get bowl eligible at a minimum and with this game only victory will matter. So, give me a first half under that emphasizes the two teams frankly bad offenses. Two decent defenses should deliver this as a 14-10, 17-10, gets us this win. Back the under here.
Final score prediction: LSU 24-21 Arkansas
