With only one goal from 24 shot attempts through Real Madrid’s first eight matches, Vinicius Junior has faced heavy criticism from journalists and fans alike so far this season. With the Brazilian having just renewed his contract with Madrid for another six seasons, José Mourinho has been reluctant to bench the 26 year-old despite his slow start. The Madrid coach has acknowledged that Vinicius is not in top form, but has been praising his defensive commitment. Critics justly point out that Vinicius returned
for preseason at Valdebebas in less-than-optimal physical condition, looking several steps slower so far this season compared to the end of last season or at the World Cup this past summer.
We now dive into Vinicius’s shot accuracy, shot selection, dribbling, creation and defensive contribution to look at how his season to date compares to prior years.
Shooting Accuracy and Shot Selection – poor efficiency or poor decision-making?
Vinicius is averaging 3.3 shot attempts per 90 minutes through the first eight matches of the season. As demonstrated in the chart below, this is very much in line with his shooting frequency in the preceding three seasons. But this season opposing goalkeepers have seen just 25% (6 of 24) of the Brazilian’s shots be on target, the lowest percentage of his career.
Also concerning is that Vinicius has managed to find the back of the net on just one of six big chances in 2026/2027, a mediocre 16.7% conversion rate. That includes two big chances missed in Madrid’s loss against Betis in Seville. The 16.7% conversion rate on big chances this season is identical to his conversation rate in La Liga + Champions during his first season at Madrid as an 18 year-old and significantly down from the 55.2% conversation rate during his 2021/2022 breakout season. Not converting enough big chances has been a major issue at Madrid over the last two seasons (and counting) and it is hard to envision a scenario where the team can win titles until that is rectified.
A closer look at Vinicius’s shot attempts confirms that it is shoddy execution rather than poor decision-making on when to shoot that is the main contributor to Vinicius slow goalscoring start this season. The Madrid winger’s shots in 2026/2027 have an average goal scoring probability of 13%, higher than either of the Brazilian’s previous two seasons as indicated in the chart below, higher than Lamine Yamal in this early part of this season (11.5%) and close to Kylian Mbappé in either his first 2 seasons at Madrid (13.5% in ‘24/’25; 13.3% in ‘25/’26).
Dribbling
Vinicius has always been a high-volume dribbler with a relatively low percentage of successful take-ons compared to some other elite dribblers, hovering around the low 40% success rate each of the last four seasons. This is often attributed to facing several defenders at once as well as attempting a high percentage of dribbles inside the opponent’s box. In fact, while Vinicius was third in the top five leagues last season with 87 successful dribbles, trailing only Lamine Yamal (133) and Yan Diomandé (118), the Brazilian completed more dribbles inside the penalty box (24 or 27.6% of his successful dribbles) than either the Barcelona right winger (23 or 17.6% of successful dribbles) or his new teammate (20 or 16.9% of successful dribbles).
What is concerning about this season is the lack of aggressiveness to get past defenders. Through the first eight matches, Vinicius is attempting only 4.6 dribbles per 90 minutes, less than half of what he attempted in the 2022/2023 season. In each of the last three matches, Vinicius has attempted only one dribble, one of his two successful dribbles coming in the first minute against Rayo Vallecano and on Madrid’s half of the pitch. That is, in the last 210 minutes on the pitch, the Brazilian has attempted only two dribbles and completed one. This would have been unfathomable a few years ago. Many Madrid remontadas in successful seasons were born out of Vinicius persistence to get past defenders late in matches.
Of Vinicius’s 14 successful dribbles so far this season, three led to a shot, two led to a corner (Madrid scoring on one of the two corner kicks) and another resulted with a penalty in Madrid’s favor. By comparison, Kylian Mbappé‘s 24 successful dribbles have produced eight shot attempts and two goals for the team.
Creation
Vinicius has remained largely consistent in terms of creating scoring opportunities for teammates. The Brazilian is averaging 1.8 key passes and 0.41 big chances per 90 minutes this season. The key pass figures are in line with the prior four seasons while the big chances represent an improvement from last season and is a slightly better average than the Brazilian’s 2021/2022 season.
Defensive Contribution
Under Mourinho, Vinicius has shown a renewed commitment to defending that had not been seen since his 2021/2022 breakout season when he was arguably the best two-way winger in Europe. This season the Brazilian is averaging nearly six successful defensive actions per 90 minutes, his best average in the last five seasons. Vinicius has already won back possession a total of nine times in the final third of the pitch in seven matches in La Liga this season compared to 23 ball recoveries in that part of the pitch in 36 matches last season. The 1.4 recoveries per 90 minutes in the final third of the pitch places the Brazilian tops amongst wingers in the Spanish first division, indicating his importance in Madrid’s success applying a high press under the Portuguese manager.
While Vinicius goalscoring drought has not prevented him from continuing to create chances for teammates or from contributing defensively, Mourinho will be hard pressed to keep the Brazilian in the starting 11 consistently unless he can start finding the back of the net with much more regularity.
