The Miami Hurricanes have made the College Football Playoff and will head to College Station to face the Texas A&M Aggies. The Aggies finished the 2025 season 11-1 (7-1 in the SEC) with wins over Notre Dame, Florida, Missouri and LSU. The Aggies were left out of the SEC Championship Game after a rivalry weekend loss to the Texas Longhorns.
Per ESPN, TAMU has a 54% win probability over the ‘Canes on Saturday, December 20th at noon on ABC. Texas A&M is around a 3.5 point favorite which is seen as a tie
in college football gambling. Miami has a 3-2 all-time edge of TAMU including a 48-33 win in 2023. But that was before Mike Elko arrived in College Station and turned A&M from a shoulda/coulda/woulda into a 19 game winner over two seasons.
The Doppler
According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ Miami and Texas A&M are a damn near even contest. TAMU is 9th in SP+ while Miami is 10th. The Aggies offense is 7th and the Miami defense is 10th. The Miami offense is 16th and the A&M defense is 21st. Miami has the edge in SP+ kicking with a 12th rating while the Aggies are 81st.
When it comes to money downs on offense, Miami is 21st in FBS at 46% on 3rd downs while TAMU is 64th at just under 40%. On 4th down Miami is 21st in FBS converting 64% while A&M is 8th at 71% conversion. On defense, the Aggies are 1st in FBS holding teams to just 24% on 3rd down. Miami is 10th at 31%.
A key metric I like to examine is turnover margin per game. Miami is 23rd at +0.6 while TAMU is 102nd at -0.5. Turnovers in key moments could really quiet the home crowd and swing this football game.
Both teams are heavily penalized. Miami is 118th in FBS with 63-yards in flags per game while the Aggies are 122nd with 65-yards per game.
PK Randy Bond has missed seven FG’s this season while Kevin Concepcion has been a weapon on PR’s averaging 20 yards per PR with two TD’s on top of that.
The Film
Of course the first film we’re going to take a look at is the Notre Dame game. Miami beat the Irish by three at time, TAMU beat the Irish by one in South Bend. On money downs the Aggies were 5-of-12 while the Irish finished 9-of-19. Both teams turned the ball over once, both via interception. The Aggies were hit with 86 yards of flags on the road while ND was only called for 31 yards in penalties.
Above– no. 17 stared directly at ND’s no.10 and STILL LET AN INSIDE RUSH GO. WHEW. OK back to the film.
Both squads had a good kick return while ND returned a blocked punt for a touchdown. Randy Bond missed a FG for A&M while Noah Burnette was perfect for ND.
THE A&M OFFENSE
Against ND, Marcel Reed averaged 9.7 yards per pass attempt with two TD’s and one INT. Reed also averaged 5.3 yards per carry on the ground and was not sacked once all game.
Le’Veon Moss scored three times on the ground while averaging 4.1 yards per carry on the night. The Irish defense only came away with two TFL’s against A&M’s O-Line.
Reed found six different receivers, and five hit double-digit yards per catch marks. Mario Carver led the way with 29.6 yards per catch and a TD reception. Concepcion averaged 20.5 yards per grab, while Nate Boerkircher caught the other TD.
Above- Triple option football. Reed reads the DE, he pulls, and the TE is going to run a slide (zero out) route. The motion slot at the top will run a wheel.
Above– The safety catches the TE in his eye and tries to hit the breaks. It allows the wheel from the slot to come open.
Above– You can see the recovery attempt here and he houses this one.
Above– Reed is a risk taker with 10 picks. Here he throws a nice ball his WR just gets beat by the ND CB. I’d prefer this ball back shoulder so it’s incomplete or a catch vs an INT.
Above- KC Concepcion is a guy that I really wanted this off-season. Toney has turned into a Concepcion type with dynamic deep ball skills, the ability to break a screen or bubble and return punts, etc.
Above– This is going to be a slugfest. A&M went to war with ND in the trenches and with backs on LB’s. Miami went to that same war. This will be a fun game with a mix of old and new school to it.
Above– What does a good run game do? It opens up play-action. What does a PAP do? Drags in the LB/S types and lets the QB get more open passing windows with less hands to the ball.
Above– The PAP above opens the window just enough for an explosive without a contested play from the DB.
Above– When you see down blocks as a defender you have to know the kick and wrap are coming. 87 is supposed to kick the edge defender but he doesn’t show. 71 is the wrapper to the ILB.
Above– Even the TE’s are making acrobatic catches. Reed forces one late but the TE makes the play boxing out the smaller defender.
THE A&M DEFENSE
Against the Aggies, CJ Carr averaged 9.2 yards per attempt with one TD and one INT. Carr was sacked twice and had negative rushing yards when adding in sack yardage.
Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price had solid games against A&M’s defense. Love averaged 4.1 yards per carry with one score while Price averaged 5.7 yards per carry with two TD’s. Love also caught the TD pass from Carr. A&M logged eight TFL’s against ND.
Carr found seven different receivers with four hitting double-digit yards per catch vs. A&M. Eli Raridon led the way with 21.3 yards per grab.
Individually, LB Daymion Sanford logged two TFL’s and a sack against ND. 317 pound DL Albert Regis had a sack and a TFL, while Scooby Williams came away with the INT.
Above– Back turn handoffs just aren’t as effective because teams know the RPO is off post-snap. Maybe he can naked off this but clearly the WR’s aren’t in routes. The LB’s see back turn and attack the LOS. The DL won the rep. I want to see Miami keep the RPO game in the playbook vs. TAMU.
Above- Flea flicker for a huge gain? Getting Toney involved here will get the defense screaming in his direction before tossing back to Beck for a big TD. This goes to the TE who releasees.
Above– The TE released outside to the numbers and is wide open off the flea flicker. If this is a seam route he runs into that safety we see but instead they wheel him to empty space.
Above– If you wonder why the NFL loves ND tight ends, this is why. Look at the TE fit and turn the LB to open a huge hole.
Above– Miami is going to need a healthy Mark Fletcher and Girard Pringle. Pringle for the explosive perimeter runs and wheel routes, Fletcher for the pounding inside runs. A&M DB goes ‘face down/ass up’ like a 2 Live Crew music video and gets blasted.
Above– ND runs Duo to perfection. The OT base and walls the DE, the G/C combo to the ILB.
Above– Mesh wheel has been a staple of the Air Raid. Think about Mike Leach scratching his head when calling in a play… that was him saying “think about” and often tagging the wheel on mesh.
Above– Mesh-Spot with a wheel tag for the RB and it’s wide open for Love.
Above– Carr could escape and get a couple and instead forces a throw that’s tipped and picked. Beck is a less mobile version of Carr. Similar football players for sure. Beck needs to just take what’s given against the Aggies.
Above– We’ve talked about this all season. Give arm / take arm. Fletcher and Pringle need to use the stiff arm against the Aggies, as does Toney.
Above– One thing Dawson has done over the past few years is use the wrong player as the main blocker against the most dangerous man. He’s done it on split zone as well as for different screens. Please do NOT dial up Beck as a blocker of the MDM ever ever ever.
Above– ND lost this slugfest on a missed PAT but the OL staying on his block allows Love to run the dude over for a TD. Miami needs Anez Cooper to get back to his working downfield ways vs. TAMU.
The Wrap
Against a team like Texas A&M, in College Station, up against a great head coach like Mike Elko the Hurricanes Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme has to be cashing it all in to buy that stupid Canyonero! There is no ‘next game’ to worry about.
You have to throw the kitchen sink at A&M to shut up the crowd and get the advantage over them in a must-win situation. Toney has to be an absolute monster in the game plan with reverses, passes, screens, and deep shots. It’s time to break out any trick you have on a flea flicker, onside kick or fake punt.
We’ll get into the individual Keys to Victory and score prediction in Part 2 out next Thursday. Until then (whip cracks) go drive your Canyonero over a ND fan’s lawn sign.
