It is early. It is early. It is early. That is the caveat with this discussion. That being said, the Houston Texans’ recent 0-3 start wasn’t on a lot of bingo cards. As such, you are starting to hear a few rumblings about job security. While others like the Bucs, Jets and Commanders have coaches who are likely leading the charge, you might start finding Ryans’ name, along with some on his staff, on that roll-call. Again, it is early, but it is starting to populate the internet.
On one hand, losses
to the Bills and Bengals, two playoff contenders, would not in and of itself be horrible. The Colts loss doesn’t look great, but it was a road game. Also, the Texans under Ryans don’t get off to the best of starts. This is the second straight year that the Texans started 0-3 and the 3rd season in Ryans’ 4 that the squad started at least 0-2. You’re probably tracking that the 2026 Texans will attempt do what their 2018 and 2025 counterparts did (make the playoffs) after an 0-3 start.
Yet, this was a team that saw itself among the elite of the NFL. Two losses at home against contenders and a division loss at Indy. Again, early, but now Houston is down in some critical tiebreakers. The running game hasn’t lived up to its promise over three games, as the team in 30th in rushing. Stroud has been sacked 10 times and again among the leaders in QBs under pressure on drop-backs. These were two big problems coming into the season, and thus far, they don’t seem fixed.
Then you have the defense. Expected to be the best in the game, their first three games haven’t shown it. They got shredded something fierce against Buffalo, and while the performances have improved over the next two games, they are still not closing out games like they did last season. They forced three turnovers against the Colts, but also allowed that team to convert over 53% of its 3rd/4th Down attempts. Likely the defense will get itself back into shape, but can they carry the team like they did last season?
Additionally, the team has taken some major injury hits. While some are out for the year (Higgins), players like, Nico Collins, Branden Smith, Kayden MacDonald, Eg Ingram and Henry To’oTo’o should be back in the lineup before too much longer. That will help, but will their return be enough, or too little, too late? Oh, and matters may not be helped if Al-Shaair, off-and-on out of the game against Indy, can’t go against Dallas.
If the team doesn’t overcome its usual slow start, what’s next? This is not a league known for patience. As Jerry Glanville famously quipped “This is the NFL, which stands for ‘Not For Long.’ I’ll be bagging groceries”. While coaches like Ryans probably won’t be applying at HEB for that gig anytime soon, job security is not really that in this day and age. Already, some sports pages are ramping up the Hot Seat Rankings. Ryans appears in some of them, and he wasn’t dead last in the standing.
Unless Houston collapses to 3-4 wins, Ryans should be safe. He is in good standing with the McNairs, and, in theory, he’s bought himself some major credit with three double-digit winning seasons with two division titles and three playoff wins. Is he perfect and make people think of peak Lombardi/Belichick? No, he is not. His seat is not the hottest in the league right now. Granted, if there is increased dissent in the locker room and if Ryans’ in-game decisions continue to backfire, that could quickly change.
As for the coordinators…that could be a different story. The most likely guy that will need a LinkedIn update pronto is offensive coordinator Nick Caley. He showed enough improvement after a horrid start to his inaugural season as OC that he was retained. However, some of the trends have returned, and not in a good way. Major short-yardage and red zone issues, especially against the Bengals, returned in force. If the offensive line and running game can’t get on-track, Caley may not make Year 3. He assuredly does not have a lot of defenders here, and there is even some possible discontentment from the players’ side.
Coming into this season, defensive coordinator Matt Burke seemed in a great spot. After last season’s successes, especially once he took over defensive play-calling, Burke was on the short list for several head coaching gigs. Then this season started. Even facing Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, the defense has not come close to playing to standard. Not all of that is on the coordinator, but there have been some questions on coverage schemes and play-calls. Should the defense fail to rebound to the standard of the past two seasons, that “NFL” moniker could come for Burke. Remember, previous OC Bobby Slowik went from hot head coaching candidate to practically fired in one season.
Frank Ross is arguably the best special teams coordinator the franchise history. Yet, when a team starts 0-3, and when some mid-to-bad special teams play contributes to that start, a lot of that credit gets burned up. As seen with Slowik, it may not take much to go from top of the world to bottom of the heap. However, what might help Ross is that he survived multiple regime changes and if the squad isn’t the root cause of too many losses, he should remain if he so desires. That, and like Caley, he is part of the Caserio circle.
Speaking of which, Nick Caserio can lay claim as the primary architect for this iteration of the Texans. Going from a nothing team to three consecutive double-digit winning seasons and three appearances in the Divisional Round in 5+ seasons is not a bad resume header. Yet, the expectations are the highest they’ve been in Houston for years. He’s spent a lot of money and draft capital to improve the squad and fix issues. Given the start to this season, you could say that those efforts haven’t be rewarded. He has a strong relationship with the McNairs as well, but eventually, the team has to get to the championship rounds. He can jettison coordinators and if need be, jettison the head coach. However, how much longer can Caserio stay above the fray?
Of course, IT.IS.STILL.EARLY. Freed of the influence of the Easterby, Cal McNair has been a bit more measured in his decisions about the team, but should he feel impatient or too disappointed, or most critically, Hannah decides that a change is needed, then bank on that change happening. Should the team fall to 0-4 or worse, the outcry will only grow louder and the respective Texans’ leaders will only move further up on those “next-to-be-fired” rankings. The team can improve, and they have recent history on their side. However, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Again, all of this is caveated with “it is still early”. However, there is a sense that it is also getting late early. Some wins would really help change this narrative, like starting this weekend.
