I don’t want this to come across as an early fitting session for Sean McDermott’s gold jacket, because I’ve certainly had my share of complaints about the man over the years. Overall though, I’ve applauded
his ability to adapt and grow, and his uncanny knack to do things I didn’t believe were possible.
In my annual turnover predictions for instance, I just admitted that I’ve given up on math and common sense at this point. Buffalo should have regressed to the mean in takeaways in the McDermott era and that just isn’t happening, suggesting some capability to coach defense. But on the other hand, there’s been an objective decline in many major metrics in the last few seasons leading to valid concerns about the defense. If you’ve read the headline, you might know where this is going.
Bills’ talent on defense
A football team is made up of more than coaches, which is a fact I assume everyone reading this is aware of. To be elite, you need coaching plus talent to execute. If we (okay, me) have faith in Sean McDermott to coach defense, is there a dearth of talent to execute? Here’s a table.
This is a very straightforward topic, but here’s some quick methodology. I wanted to compare this year’s squad to the two best McDermott years. To identify “best” I used my favorite metric of points per drive. The 2019 team was the second best team in the league that year allowing a scant 1.3 points per drive. In 2021, they allowed 1.51 points per drive, but with a shifting league that was best in the NFL. The current team is 23rd in the league with 2.4 points per drive.
Now that we’ve confirmed that the 2025 unit is not living up to the two best years under McDermott, let’s talk about the main premise of the article: which is defensive talent. A lot of this will be us commenting on our opinions, so here are some of mine. As a quick heads up, players are listed in order of playing time in their grouping and only players hitting 30% or higher of snaps are listed.
Defensive backs
I’m going to be candid, I believe the change in defensive backs is the single biggest shift in talent. That’s primarily due to the combination of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde at safety in their prime. The pair caused chaos, being able to swap fluidly and essentially erase the “strong” vs. “free” designation when desired. Poyer literally achieved All-Pro status and Micah Hyde feels like a snub.
Add in prime Tre’Davious White locking down large segments of the field and the 2019 and 2021 teams had insane talent on the back end. Nickel cornerback Taron Johnson is currently the only one in the running for “elite” status, and he’s been banged up.
Linebackers
Tremaine Edmunds never achieved the ceiling we hoped he would, but there were a lot of positives with his time in Buffalo. The 2019 and 2021 seasons saw Milano over 90% of snaps (aka “not injured”) and at peak performance. In the 2021 season, it’s insane that only Edmunds and Milano achieved more than 30% of snaps. Bernard has been a fan favorite with elite stretches of play, Milano barely squeaked into the current season’s chart with limited playing time thanks to injury.
For 2019, you have Lorenzo Alexander thrown into the mix and that was the height of McDermott’s “Chaos Defense” as I call it. With Alexander playing three positions at a high level, offenses had a very difficult time reading the defense pre-snap. See below on some finger crossing, but since Lorax’s departure the Bills haven’t fielded a similar player.
Defensive line
Joey Bosa has been playing well, Ed Oliver had a fantastic game, and honestly I think the defensive line is likely the best grouping at the moment for the Bills. On that note, you might have seen that Ed Oliver isn’t on the chart, falling below the 30% mark due to injury.
Mario Addison’s 2021 season was one of the best in his career. The two years listed were two of the worst for Hughes statistically, but as any long-time reader knows, Jerry Hughes is one of my all-time favorites in a Bills uniform. Even in years where the stats didn’t happen I felt Hughes was disruptive (run game, pass coverage, etc).
Being candid I believe you can make a case that this is mostly a push for talent. Want some data to partially back that up? In 2019 the Bills had a 7.96% sack rate. It was 7.92% in 2021. The objectively worse 2025 defense in most metrics is currently at an 8.0% sack rate.
You’ve convinced me Skare, but is there hope?
If the problem is indeed one of talent, there’s plenty of reason for hope. Some of this will pan out, but not likely all of it. Still though, this is a pretty fun list of players to think about.
- Matt Milano’s pectoral injury may not be long-term, which could boost the linebacker group.
- The time frame for Ed Oliver isn’t exactly certain, but there’s no reason to think at this point he’ll be out for the season.
- Players who’ve been playing nicked up like Tre’ White and Taron Johnson will hopefully continue healing and improving.
- Maxwell Hairston will be eligible to return to practice soon. It seems the Bills are happy to move him along slowly, but there’s the potential the rookie corner will be able to work into the rotation this season and provide a boost on the back end.
- Buffalo has two players currently serving suspensions. Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht are both waiting to debut for Buffalo. Hoecht in particular was one I was keen on seeing in a Bills uniform, with my film review suggesting he might be able to fill some of the old multi-tool role of Lorenzo Alexander.
So there you have it. The Buffalo Bills are sitting at 3-0 with defensive highlights helping win two games, and one very strong total game on defense. While it does look like the 2025 squad is flawed, there’s a voluminous list of players who could return to the team or continue to heal. If talent is indeed the issue, there might be some on the way.
