After a turbulent start to the offseason, caused by nine former Wildcats entering the transfer portal, Northwestern’s 2026-27 roster is finally complete, composed of three returners, eight incoming transfers, two incoming freshmen and a walk-on.
With this revamped roster, summer workouts will soon be underway in Evanston. Coach Chris Collins and his staff will be in the lab, working to mold these new pieces into a functioning Big Ten basketball team before the season tips off in early November.
But
what are realistic expectations for this new Northwestern roster?
With 11 new faces on the roster for this coming season, it’s fair to say that Northwestern has a lot of moving pieces. Considering this, the ‘Cats have the potential for both a decently high ceiling, but also a very low floor.
Here are the ceiling, floor and target for Northwestern men’s basketball in 2026-27:
Ceiling: Middle of the Big Ten, NCAA Tournament First Round
Taking a glass half-full perspective, Northwestern’s new players offer a lot of upside.
Players like Jack Karasinki (Bellarmine), Okku Federiko (Drake), Luke McEldon (Mount St. Mary’s) and Colin Smith (UCSB) were successful at the mid-major level, starting in almost every game they played in last season at their respective programs.
Karasinski was the Atlantic Sun Conference’s scoring champion, averaging 21.7 points per game on 56.1% shooting from the field. Federiko was one of the Missouri Valley Conference’s top rim protectors, averaging 1.0 blocks per game (8th in MVC). McEldon averaged 6.2 rebounds per game, finishing top 10 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Smith had the third best three-point shooting percentage (40.5) of players in the Big West Conference that averaged over three attempts per game from distance.
Then there’s LA Pratt and incoming freshman Jaylen Hodge, two players that will be returning from significant lower body injuries — a broken foot and torn ACL, respectively — when they see their first minutes for the ‘Cats next season.
Prior to injury, both of these players were high level talents. In the two games he played before his injury, Pratt averaged 19.5 points, 4.5 assists and 2.5 steals for Northeastern, firmly asserting himself as the Huskies’ No. 1 option. Similarly, Hodge was a four-star senior at Montverde Academy, one of the premier basketball high schools in the nation, averaging 11 points per game in his six appearances.
The upside here is that If Pratt and Hodge can be the same players they were prior to injury, their talent has proven to be great enough to make them major impact players in the Big Ten. Pratt would be able to play as Northwestern’s second point guard, with the potential to not only serve as the second unit’s primary facilitator, but also function alongside returning guard Jake West, giving the sophomore room to play as a shooting guard and tap into his ability to be a knock-down three-point shooter.
Perhaps most exciting is the three-point shooting that Northwestern’s new-look roster will feature next season.
Last year, Northwestern had just one consistent high-volume three-point shooter in Nick Martinelli, who shot 3.3 threes per game at a 41.7 percentage. The ‘Cats’ new roster features three players who functioned as true shooters last season, in Karasinski, who averaged 5.7 attempts per game and shot 41.5%, Smith, who averaged 3.7 attempts per game and shot 40.5%, and Aleksej Kostić, who averaged 3.3 attempts per game and shot 36.7%. With this triplet of incoming shooters and Jake West, who from the month of February onward shot 38.6% while shooting 4.0 threes per game, the ‘Cats look poised to really let the ball fly next season at a high level.
In the end, if the ‘Cats’ incoming players are able to translate their games to the Big Ten and continue to impact the court as shot blockers, rebounders, facilitators and shooters, I think Northwestern could surprise people next season and make their way into the NCAA Tournament’s expanded Field of 76. Everything would have to click, but this, in my mind, is the ‘Cats’ ceiling.
Floor: Last in the Big Ten, Miss NCAA Tournament
Taking a glass half-empty perspective, Northwestern has near-zero proven talent on its roster entering next season.
With all the new faces on the roster this coming season, it’s hard to ignore the feeling that this is a Northwestern team without any true direction. In other words, more so than in the past two years, this is a true rebuilding year for Collins’ program.
Even after Boo Buie graduated following Northwestern’s Second Round season in 2023-24, the ‘Cats returned three of its top five scorers, with Brooks Barnhizer, a Third-team All-Big Ten player, ready to become the face of the team. Similarly, after Barnhizer graduated following the 2024-25 season, Martinelli was ready to lead the team the following season, having already been named to a Second-team All-Big Ten team as the 2025 Big Ten Scoring Champion.
This coming season, the ‘Cats are returning just one top five scorer, without an All-Big Ten team talent to take the reins of the program. Sure, West was exciting down the stretch of last year’s season, but he hasn’t proven himself like 2024 Barnhizer or 2025 Martinelli.
On top of the lack of returning stability, while Northwestern’s incoming transfers have proven themselves on the mid-major level, there is little evidence that their talent will translate to the Big Ten. In fact, in some cases, these players’ histories prove the counter-argument, that they don’t have the skills to compete on a Power Five level.
Smith started his college career at Vanderbilt. Appearing in 43 games across two seasons, he did play 22 of them as a starter, though his success was limited. His sophomore season, he shot just 35.4% from the field and 27.3% from the three-point line. At UCSB he became known for his ability to space the floor as a 6-foot-8 forward, but just two years prior, at Vandy, he hadn’t been able to do the same.
McEldon played two seasons at Santa Clara before transferring to Mount St. Mary’s, but he did not see the floor. The forward ppeared in just 14 games, averaging just over five minutes per game.
Meanwhile, Karasinski and Soulis started their careers at higher-level mid-major schools — William & Mary and Richmond, respectively — but transferred down to programs in lower-level mid-major conferences, Bellarmine and Colubmia, respectively, because they hadn’t seen consistent playing time at their original schools.
Especially concerning is how many of these players’ games will transfer on the defensive end. Though Karasinski was one of the top scorers in the nation last year at Bellarmine, he was also the second-worst rated defensive player on the Knights (per EvanMiya.com), who were the worst defensive team in the nation per KenPom.com’s defensive efficiency metric. Smith, Williams and Pratt have also historically had negative defensive ratings per EvanMiya, which are likely to worsen playing in the Big Ten.
No matter how big of jumps West and Angelo Ciaravino are able to take, you can’t be a competitive basketball team with just two decent players. If everything were to go wrong for Chris Collins, meaning that he hits on virtually none of his mid-major transfer gambles, Northwestern will be the worst team in the Big Ten.
Target: Middle of the Big Ten, NCAA Tournament Bubble
The ‘Cats have not made the tournament the last two seasons, but, they should not lower their standards because of these results. As a Big Ten basketball program in the NIL era, the target for Northwestern basketball should always be to be a competitive Big Ten team in the running to make the NCAA Tournament.
Especially with the tournament being expanded to 76 teams in the upcoming season, it will be easier than ever for teams like Northwestern to secure an at-large bid. There are now 44 at-large bids available, meaning that over half of Power Five college basketball teams will make the NCAA Tournament. For NU, this means that just to gain consideration for the tournament, it likely only has to win 7-9 games in Big Ten play.
With these changes, even though it is a rebuilding year for the ‘Cats, it would be foolish to lower the team’s expectations any lower than the NCAA Tournament’s bubble.
The ‘Cats’ roster was decimated by the transfer portal — that is undeniable. However, in the modern era of college basketball, this can happen, especially to smaller Power Five programs like Northwestern, without the NIL budget of many of its top competitors.
Chris Collins has to prove that he can keep his team from falling in the ranks by being resourceful in the portal. Rebuilt or not, with the tournament’s field being expanded to 76, the ‘Cats’ target this season has to be being a bubble team.
