Following last week’s disappointing draw against Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park, on Sunday afternoon local time, Everton will round off a first year at the state-of-the-art Hill Dickinson Stadium. Whilst the club has posted a mediocre six wins and five draws on home turf heading into tomorrow’s match, the move to a new ground can’t really be blamed, as the team’s record at Goodison Park going back quite a few years was hardly intimidating to the opposition.
A five game winless run has robbed the
Blues of much momentum heading into the closing weeks of the campaign, but – improbably – European qualification is still, somehow, not out of reach. It’s been an unusual season, with the extension of continental spots extending way into midtable giving hopes of visits to foreign climes to a lot of clubs. Arriving for a second visit of the year to HDS – after knocking the Toffees out of the FA Cup via penalty shootout in January – are Sunderland, trailing one point behind in the table, and one of many sides still in with a shout at Europe.
Form
Régis Le Bris has enjoyed quite the impact in a relatively short time at the North East club, steering them up from the Championship at the first time of asking last term through the playoffs, and then on to an unprecedentedly successful first year back in the top flight, after eight years spent in the second and even third tier of English football. The club’s owners have aided him heavily in ensuring that Sunderland would avoid the fate of the previous six promotees, who all went straight back down, typically with a whimper. Shockingly youthful majority owner Kyril Louis-Dreyfus (age: 28!) funded a well-directed spending spree in support of the manager, investing €188.7m on 15 additions — offset somewhat by €51m generated from the sales of Jobe Bellingham and promotion final hero Tom Watson.
The Black Cats got the campaign off to a perfect start, brushing aside a poor West Ham side 3-0 at the Stadium of Light (foreshadowing the Londoners’ struggles). By mid-December, propelled by excellent home form, they’d accrued 24 points from their opening 16 league games, and already looked safe from any genuine relegation concerns. Notable results were holding Aston Villa to a draw with ten men, beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and Newcastle at home, and draws with both Arsenal and Liverpool — the latter at Anfield. Later, a winless run of five still included creditable draws with Brighton and Manchester City. Sunderland finally lost their first home game – to the Reds – in mid-February.
They struggled with losing a number of players during AFCON and missed the inspirational Granit Xhaka for a spell through injury, causing them to lose momentum, but even when playing with less consistency they would still pick up the odd good result, including doing the double over regional rivals Newcastle with a 1-0 win at St. James’ Park, and beating a desperate Spurs side — in what remains their most recent victory. The visitors arrive on Merseyside without a win in their last four, having lost 4-3 to Villa in a wild game, before being hammered 5-0 at home by Nottingham Forest, in what was an uncharacteristic, shocking, error-strewn display. In their last two outings, they were held to a draw by Wolves at Molineux, playing most of the game with ten men, but were unfortunate not to beat Manchester United at the SoL, after largely dominating the game.
Team Assessment
Le Bris is a pragmatist who is primarily concerned with shape and defensive structure. He’s varied formations throughout the season, and occasionally changes it during a game, as he did during the first half of their 2-0 loss to United at Old Trafford, when his side was overrun on the flanks in the early stages. The 50-year-old Frenchman has switched to a back three on occasion, but has used 4-2-3-1 in each of the last five games, and for much of the past few months, so this is likely what we’ll see this afternoon. He’s unconcerned with possession (44.6%), preferring to play in transition, which they do well at times with neat one-touch passing, or to go direct. They do struggle to carve out clear goalscoring opportunities, and to take advantage of those they do create. Defensively, the visitors have been vulnerable to counters, but are generally difficult to break down in open play — something which is not an Everton strong suit.
In goal is Robin Roefs, one of the standout signings of the season. Composed and commanding, the 23-year-old cost just €10.5m after one season as a starter in the Eredivisie with NEC Nijmegen, but already looks top class. The strong, impressive Dan Ballard’s appeal for an absurd three-match suspension for hair-pulling has been rejected, so at centre half will be the excellent duo of Nordi Mukiele and Omar Alderete (cost: €23.6m combined). Mukiele is equally strong at right back, and has a solid shot to be player of the season. Left back is covered by the experienced ex-Atlético Madrid man, Reinaldo, whereas on the right could be either Trai Hume, a hard-tackling holdover from last season, or Lutsharel Geertruida, a surprise inclusion last week, who excelled against United.
Sunderland captain Xhaka anchors the midfield. Now aged 33, the former longtime Arsenal stalwart has been an inspired addition, bringing valuable experience, leadership and calmness to what is a young side. The Swiss international leads the team with six league assists. Alongside him will be Noah Sadiki. The young midfielder has been a revelation, stepping up from the Belgian league seamlessly, bringing endless energy, ball-winning ability and no little quality; the moneyed “elite” will surely be testing the club’s resolve to keep him in the summer. Operating in front is Enzo Le Fée. The Frenchman – who bafflingly failed at Roma – has been outstanding, combining industry with genuine ability on the ball. He’s often been deployed on the left, but excels in the number ten position. The club’s most expensive summer signing, box-to-box midfielder Habib Diarra (€31.5m) has been a regular since recovering from injury and AFCON, but has dropped out of the side recently.
Operating as a lone striker, Brian Brobbey is looking like a bargain at €20m, from Ajax. He’s not the fastest, but is strong as a bull, clever and a real handful for defenders, but gets little help from referees, who seem oddly disinclined to call fouls on him. His goal tally of six on the season is not all that impressive, but he’d fought off rivals for the position by December and his hold-up play helps the team to get up the pitch. The flanks have been a problem area throughout the campaign. Le Fée moving inside has allowed Chemsdine Talbi (€20m from Club Brugge) to play on the left, where he looks stronger. Having just turned 21, the Moroccan is clearly talented but has often failed to impose himself on games. Hume has been used on the right in the last two games, but Bertrand Traoré may be available for today.
Prediction
Everton need to win their last home game of the season to have any real chance at taking one of the European spots. There’s only so long that a team can stay in contention whilst failing to pick up a vicory, and that streak stands at five games now for today’s hosts. David Moyes has made much of the difficulty the club had in attracting players last summer without the promise of continental competition, so obtaining it could matter more than just the opportunity to compete for another trophy next season, imporatant as that would be. Right now, Everton’s major issue is leaking goals: eleven in the last five matches, which puts a lot of pressure on the front line to carry on scoring.
Sunderland’s issue is the opposite, in that although they’ve typically defended well (apart from the Villa game and the Forest aberration, they’ve conceded a goal or less in seven of the last nine), they struggle to convince in the final third. The North-East club have scored only 37 goals in 36 league games, and in their previous 12 outings, they’ve bagged more than one goal only twice, including the shootout at Villa Park. There’s clearly been a reaction to the horror show against Forest, and they looked aggressive and disciplined in blunting a limp United attack eight days ago. Unfortunately, they also spurned a few good chances to win the game, which has been a common theme.
On paper, there’s not much between the two teams, and in this sense the table doesn’t lie — although Sunderland’s recruitment this season has made Everton’s look unfocused and indecisive by comparison, as they’ve rebuilt the entire squad almost from scratch. Of their players accumulating more than 1,100 league minutes, only four of the 14 were at the club last term, and of those, Le Fée was a January loan signing who joined permanently in the summer. The Blues also have 14 players with similar gametime, but eleven of those were at the club last term, with only Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Thierno Barry and loanee Jack Grealish being fresh additions.
But back to the game itself, and I think we’ll see a resolute Sunderland side setting up in a compact shape, handing the ball to the hosts, but looking to quickly exploit any turnovers in possession. I doubt that Moyes will make any changes to the lineup, so much will depend on KDH and Iliman Ndiaye to spark something, and for Beto to continue his strong end of season scoring form. The visitors are very strong in midfield, easily matching the Toffees, and their defence is impressive, so unless something strange happens, with both managers abandoning their usual caution, clear chances could be thin on the ground. Everton are superior on attacking set-pieces and will enjoy a height advantage in these situations, but otherwise goal-scoring opportunities will probably result from transitional play. I see two well-matched teams competing closely, with a draw the most likely result.
Scoreline: Everton 1-1 Sunderland
Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.com and whoscored.com
