I had a passing thought tonight. As the Cubs slowly gain ground on the top NL teams, I can hear fanbases muttering about them doing it against weak teams. So I decided to check tonight’s opponent. Surely, most of the other NL teams have played their whole schedule against the Braves by now, right? How did they do? Starting at the top, the Brewers won four of six. Phillies? Eight of 13. The Dodgers? Five of six. Padres? Six of seven. Mets? Lost eight of 13. Whoops. Reds? Lost five of seven.
Kind of
amusing. The best of the best dominated them pretty hard. The last in and last out? Not so much. The Mets and Reds had losing records against them. Some of that is bad timing, of course. The Braves were a different team months ago. That’s the biggest issue with the modern schedule. Used to be you saw teams in your own division so many times that it evened out those times when one team or the other was particularly hot or cold. Though two teams in the same division play a nearly identical schedule these days, there can be a vast difference in timing. It is what it is. I don’t think we’re ever going back.
This game had some of everything. It looked for a little while like the game might have been a 180 from the day before. This time, it was the Cubs with a nice early lead and the Braves clawing back. And once again, it came down to the very last play. On Monday, the Cubs came through when they needed to. And on Tuesday, the Braves came up just short in the end. The net result? The Cubs returned to a season high 21 games over .500.
21 games over is a fun spot. If the Cubs finish 11-10 over their last 21 games, they win 91 games. The worst the Cubs have played over any extended period of time is .500. This team is going to win 90 games and the only question now is how far over they go. Well, that and how healthy and dialed in can they be by the end of this month? It’s going to be a journey, just like so much of the season has been.
Out of curiosity, I went back and looked at the BCB pre-season roundtable. I had the high guess with 91 wins. I said that they’d survive the early schedule and that at some point things would click and they’d play .600 the rest of the way. So ended up in the right place despite having it backwards. Something about a blind squirrel and a nut here. Amused that almost all of us thought the Cubs would win the Central, even with as low as 88 wins. So the Brewers surprised literally everyone.
The other thing on my mind lately is the amusement of hanging out on Cubs social media. If you pay attention, you are going to read that Craig Counsell is terrible. The front office and ownership are terrible. Most of the players are bums and should be designated for assignment or some place or another. And a group of long time Cub fans who have blogged about the Cubs for a long time came together and every one of them almost certainly guessed low on how well the team would do. The Cubs are going to blow by any Vegas odds. Somehow, they are going to have overachieved and I guess the only viable explanation is pure, blind luck.
I can’t ever remember a good Cub season without a narrative that a player or players carried the team through their successes. In 1984, 1989, 2008 and 2015, their manager was named NL Manager of the Year. In 2020, 2016, 2007, 2003, and 1998 their manager was top five in the voting. We’ve turned an interesting corner as a franchise and as a fandom. We’ve gotten to the point where we’ve really raised the bar. For better or for worse, there are expectations for this franchise. A couple of A’s on the report card aren’t enough to get some positive affirmation.
You’ve heard me talk around this. I think it’s great that we expect this franchise to produce excellence. Just getting in isn’t the goal. We aren’t happy to just get there. We’re seeking another championship. I think there is something admirable about holding your team to a championship standard. But I’ve always bristled at the idea that a season can’t be successful without a championship. I can’t accept that 29 baseball teams end their season in disappointment.
Everyone involved with this organization deserves some credit for this season. The team spent a large chunk of the season in first place. They’re going to win more than 90 games. They have a respected farm system. They have a number of compelling prospects at or near the fringes of the major league team. They were successful really in every form of talent acquisition but one, from Kyle Tucker to Drew Pomeranz. This team made trades, signed free agents, made waiver pickups and promoted talent. They’ve all contributed to this team. There have been many more hits than misses. The only thing that hasn’t worked out particularly well were the trades at the trade deadline.
For what it’s worth, for a buying team, I think the measure of the trade deadline is how those guys do in the playoffs. So the book isn’t closed. But collectively, they have not gotten a lot of value out of those trades. I think fans of this team sometimes get too wrapped up in the negatives and don’t stop and enjoy the ride. This has been the most fun I’ve had following this team since 2016. I don’t think it ends with hoisting a trophy. If they only play in one playoff series, they fell short of their potential. But I don’t think that’ll be a crippling failure or ruin the season.
They’ve built a top team, a top organization. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but there isn’t a lot of reason to think the team falls apart right away. There is a lot of young talent and more on the way. This offseason will be challenging. Most are. I’ll worry about that in November.
Enjoy the ride.
Pitch Counts:
- Braves: 146, 33 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 128, 34 BF
The Braves throw 18.25 pitches per inning and the Cubs throw 14.22. The Braves face nine batters over the minimum and the Cubs face just seven over the minimum. The Braves had a caught stealing and a pickoff (both were the same play), grounded into a double play and yet were 1-2 with runners in scoring position. They only left four on base. The Cubs were 2-4 with runners in scoring position. They also had a double play against them. They left five on base. Cub pitching was way more efficient, but the results were so similar overall. Amazingly, neither bullpen allowed a run. The Brave bullpen threw four scoreless and the Cub three.
Rolddy Muñoz was the only reliever who threw a lot of pitches in this one. Both teams should have stocked bullpens for Wednesday’s finale. Neither team plays Thursday, so no real holding back. One day soon, we’re going to wonder how good Cub pitchers are and how suppressing Wrigley Field is. Flip that coin and ask the same about their own hitters.
Three Stars:
- Kyle Tucker had a pair of hits. One of those was a three-run homer. Hopefully, the calf thing is very minor. He appears to be getting locked back in.
- Caleb Thielbar threw a perfect eighth inning including facing Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson the last time. The last inning against the other team’s best hitters in a close game is huge. Caleb has excelled in pretty much every role this year.
- Nico Hoerner had a pair of hits and scored a run.
Game 139, September 2: Cubs 4, Braves 3 (80-59)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Kyle Tucker (.240). 2-3, HR, 3 RBI, R
- Hero: Daniel Palencia (.157). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, K (Sv 22)
- Sidekick: Caleb Thielbar (.118). IP, 3 BF, K
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Carson Kelly (-.096). 0-4, DP
- Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.056). 0-3, BB, R
- Kid: Michael Busch (-.030). 0-2
WPA Play of the Game: Kyle Tucker’s three-run homer with one out in the third for the first three runs of the game. (.241)
*Braves Play of the Game: Eli White’s lead off solo homer in the fifth cut a two run Cub lead to just one. (.116)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Carson Kelly received 250 of 271 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Shōta Imanaga +22
- Matthew Boyd +20
- Jameson Taillon +16
- Michael Busch +14.67
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Carson Kelly -18
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -26.33
- Seiya Suzuki -30
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) lose (Cubs up 4). Mets (WC 3) win (Cubs up 5). Reds lose (Cubs up 10). The Reds need to finish 20-3 to reach 90 wins. The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 14 with 23 to go. For what it’s worth, the Brewers were off. The Cubs are still back five in the division. We’ll count down the magic number against the Reds until the Cubs clinch a playoff spot. Then we’ll turn our attention (presumably) to the Mets and Brewers.
Up Next: The third and final game of the series. Cub break out rookie star Cade Horton (9-4, 2.92, 98.2 IP) starts. Wins have fallen out of favor, but for a guy who didn’t reach the majors until mid-May, it’s a big number. He was 5-1 with a 1.20 ERA in August (30 IP). Cade has made the most of his first big league season. He’s got a 1.71 ERA at home in 47.1 IP.
26-year-old Bryce Elder (5-9, 5.85, 124.2 IP) gets the call for the Braves. He was 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA (37.1 IP) in August. Elder is a righty. He was selected by the Braves in the fifth round of the 2020 draft (156 overall). He first reached the majors in 2022 and actually had 12 wins and a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts (174.2 IP) in 2023. He was an All-Star that season. 2024 was a struggle and he’s never found the magic from 2023.
Get Cade another win and sweep this series.
