Whether you trust the odds or trust your gut, there is no denying that critical decisions at pivotal moments can win or lose you a football game. Football is a game of risk, but some coaches try to minimize it while others try to capitalize on it. Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions have been classified as high rollers since he was hired as head coach—is it time to change?
The Lions defeated the Green Bay Packers in their Week 7 tilt, but things could have turned out far different if not for a few
key moments. If the Packers had converted one or both of their failed field goals, the Lions would have needed a touchdown, not a field goal, on their final drive. If the Packers had converted on a few of their deep shots, the Packers likely put up more than 17 points. If the officiating had been less strict with roughing the passer or more strict with pass interference, perhaps some drives would have flipped from success to failure or vice versa.
In such a close matchup, one decision can alter the outcome of the game. We nearly saw that happen on Sunday when the Lions boldly attempted a fourth-and-1 at their own 24-yard line. With around five minutes left in the game, the win probability would have swung wildly based on the play’s outcome. Had Detroit converted, they would have had a fresh set of downs with a chance to drain the clock and march downfield for a game-winning field goal. With a failed conversion, Green Bay would have been set up deep in Lions territory with a great chance to take the lead via field goal or touchdown.
It was only natural that both outcomes happened. The Packers stopped Jahmyr Gibbs for a loss on the play, yet their subsequent four-play drive ended with a missed field goal, aided by a tip from DJ Wonnum. Detroit promptly marched down the field and drained the remaining three minutes to set up a Jake Bates game-winner.
In a way, the Lions were both punished and rewarded for their risk taking. Had the Lions punted outright, Green Bay likely would have drained more of the clock on their next drive, potentially keeping the ball out of Detroit’s hands. Campbell said as much in his post-game press conference:
However, now that the Lions have a playoff-caliber roster, wouldn’t it make sense to tone down the risky plays and let the roster’s talent speak for itself? For a team that had already shot themselves in the foot twice with fumbles, committing two turnovers on downs only added to the circus that was this game. Wouldn’t it make more sense to trot out the kicker for easier points, or the punter booting one to flip the field? Taking too many risks can backfire and cost you a game.
Today’s Question of the Day is:
Is Dan Campbell taking too many risks?
My answer: I do not think so.
In the early years of Campbell’s head coaching tenure, many people saw the risk-taking mindset as a byproduct of a bad roster. If the Lions wanted to win games, they needed to roll the dice. They nearly did so against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 7 of the 2021 season, a game in which the Lions ran two fake punts and a surprise onside kick.
For one, after having watched Campbell since 2021, it seems clear that the risk taking in 2021 was just as much about his identity as it was about the roster. This isn’t to say that Campbell is keen to take a risk whenever he can. For a guy that still gets the label of “meathead” after a half decade, Campbell’s risk senses are genuinely elite. He’s not a guy that crunches the numbers on every given play, but his gut instinct is often in-line with what analytics say. This comes from being immersed in football for years as a player and as a coach. Simply put, he has the knack for knowing when to make a calculated risk, even if he is not actually doing that calculation.
There have been moments where Campbell has taken risks and it has backfired, without doubt. However, I think you need to live with those mistakes because the reward is worth it. Campbell trusts his players and trusts their talent. If you need to get two yards, how many of us wouldn’t want to run Jahmyr Gibbs behind the likes of Penei Sewell? The execution can be flawed even when the logic was sound. Sometimes an opponent throws rock when you throw scissors—that is how football goes.
I really believe that the Lions are a better team because Campbell trusts his instincts so often. This will lead to frustrating moments that can alter the outcome of a game, but I think this is a necessary consequence of a winning mindset. When a gamble fails, it is easy to have a knee-jerk negative reaction. However, often upon reflection, the gamble was actually revealed to have been a savvy move.
Personally, I do not want Campbell to change his ways. Do you agree or disagree with my stance? Let us know in the comments below.
