Duke travels to Tallahassee Saturday to take on the new-look Florida State Seminoles.
Long-time coach Leonard Hamilton retired after last season and former ‘Nole Luke Loucks was hired to rebuild the program.
Hamilton had a solid run at FSU, particularly in the years leading up to the Covid pandemic.
After that ended though, Hamilton never really got his program back to where it was. Between 2016-17 and 2019-20, FSU averaged 26 wins per season. Giving Hamilton the Covid waiver we give everyone else,
between 2021-22 and 2024-25, the ‘Noles averaged 15 wins.
That’s a major drop-off.
Loucks credits his old coach for sparking an interest in coaching and he came back home from a stint with the Sacramento Kings, where his boss, Mike Brown, called him a “connector,” and argued that people who were connectors could really get things done.
So how’s he doing?
Well, it’s a bit hit-and miss so far. Loucks came back to the NIL/liberal transfer era and Florida State is always going to emphasize football over basketball, so his starting philosophy is to do more with less.
Florida State is 7-7 so far, including a five-game losing streak against Texas A&M, Georgia, Houston, UMass and Dayton, none of them particularly close.
However, he gets props for a tough Year One schedule and more for coming within a basket of beating Florida.
After the losing streak, FSU played Mississippi Valley State and Jacksonville by 47 and 24 respectively.
It doesn’t matter in one sense because these teams, frankly, stink, and they should have beaten them badly.
The loss at UNC should raise some eyebrows, however.
Despite some serious struggles earlier, FSU competed with UNC well into the second half and the vastly more talented Tar Heels only won by 13, and that was on the road.
And they did that with a subpar game from their best player, Robert McCray, who played for one year at Wake Forest before spending the next two at Jacksonville.
He’s developed into a terrific player. He’s putting up 13.4 ppg and 7.1 apg. The 6-4 senior is really coming through for a team that needs him.
Lajae Jones (6-7 senior) is getting 11.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and leads the team with just under a block a game.
Martin Somerville (6-3 sophomore) came over from UMass Lowell. He’s averaging 9.4 ppg, 3.3 rebounds and 1.6 assists.
You may remember Chauncey Wiggins (6-10/225 lb. senior) from his time at Clemson. He’s averaging 12.3 points and 4.8 rebounds. Wiggins can shoot, but he’s not doing so well overall, hitting just 39.6% of his overall attempts and 29.5% of his threes. However, don’t accept that as gospel because he can heat up.
Kobe Magee (6-5 senior) spent three years at Drexel before transferring. He’s getting 10.6 ppg, 3.8 rebounds and 1.2 assists. However, like Wiggins he’s not shooting very well, just 39.2%.
Cam Miles (6-2 freshman), Alex Steen (6-9/230 lb. senior) and AJ Swinton (6-6 sophomore) round out the rotation.
You’ll notice one immediate difference from the Fighting’ Hammies era: Hamilton often had 3-4 mostly useless 7-footers and would channel opposing shooters inside to shoot against them.
He doesn’t have that. He also doesn’t have a team of great shooters.
What he does have is a team that’s athletic and agile and capable of defending with great energy.
Is it enough to beat Duke?
Well, it might be.
In Duke’s last five games, the Blue Devils have won by 9, 1, 6, 24, -1 and 6. The 24 point win was against a tougher than expected Lipscomb team and the loss was to Texas Tech.
In the last three games, Duke had 22, 11 and 12 turnovers.
If it were us, we’d look at a team that has suddenly struggled with turnovers and our own bad shooting and we’d try really hard to press them. We’d try to force turnovers that resulted in transition baskets, where shooting percentages are much higher.
We’d look at a team that has shaken up its starting lineup to get smaller and try to take the ball inside. We’d test Duke to see if the Blue Devils are having a confidence problem and we’d try to give our fans a chance to be a major factor.
Confidence is not a problem for Cameron Boozer or Caleb Foster. It might be for Patrick Ngongba, who has played well at times but not consistently. Isaiah Evans is developing into a really good all-around basketball player, but shooting, which has always been a strength of his game, is not at the moment. And while Cayden Boozer made some huge, resume-buffing plays against Georgia Tech, he’s a freshman who has started exactly one game.
We’d certainly go after him.
That won’t work against Malik Brown, but we’d try to bait him into foul trouble. It probably won’t work against Nik Khamenia, who is a very tough customer.
But Dame Sarr? He’s shown a lack of confidence and assertiveness at times, notably around the basket. And while we quite like Darren Harris, he hasn’t played as much as some other players.
Given Duke’s tendency to start slow, we’d try to punch them in the nose, to stagger them early and see if they can basically take a hit.
There’s no guarantee that will work and they have to figure out how to slow down Cameron Boozer.
If they can shake Duke’s confidence, turn the ball over and limit Boozer’s effectiveness, Florida State could shock the world.
We’ll add links as we find them.
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