This past weekend was the celebration of the 2016 championship Cubs on their 10-year reunion. The various gatherings and events brought back a lot of nostalgia. Tuesday night’s Cub win also brought back some of that nostalgia. This was the blueprint of so much of that season. Jump all over the other team early and cruise to victory. Once Cub starter David Peterson was lifted from the game, there were just two more plays that registered any WPA. Aaron Civale allowed a single to the first batter he faced
(-.001) and retired the second (.001). Each team had two turns at the plate, but neither dented WPA after that. 31 of the 86 plays in this game registered .000.
Perspective check: Four teams have more wins than the Cubs. The Cubs have solo possession of the first Wild Card position in the NL. The Cubs are on pace to win 91.4 games. They continue to have that tight projection in the 90-92 range. Overall, I think that range is probably something like 88-94, allowing for swings in either direction. As I keep saying, starting Friday, there is a significant test coming. The team has played well for over a month now. Hopefully, there is something they can take from that and bring forth into this stretch.
Ironically, the Cubs won this one the way they lost the one before. Granted, it was a much longer duration. But the Cubs weren’t particularly crushing Framber Valdez. But, they were patient, took what was given to them, got a couple of good breaks and poured it on, knocking Valdez out with more than 40 pitches thrown and only two outs recorded. That was the first time Valdez failed to survive the first inning since July 11, 2019 when he allowed four runs on four hits and three walks. This was only his second-ever start, in 185 total starts, where he didn’t throw at least three innings.
When it gets this lopsided this quickly, you end up with silly baseball. The Cubs faced two innings of position player pitching that accounted for three hits, four walks and two runs. So in the six innings against guys who get paid to pitch, the team had eight hits, seven walks, two hit batters and nine runs. Nine different Cubs had hits, six different Cubs drew walks, nine different Cubs scored runs, seven different Cubs had RBI’s. So it was a really balanced attack for the Cubs.
Leading the way was Pete Crow-Armstrong who started the game with a triple, walked later in the inning and ended up with two hits and three walks. That’s one very odd full house. He drove in two and scored a run. The Cubs only had one double, one triple and one homer. They stole one base. So this attack was death by a thousand paper cuts for the Tigers.
David Peterson threw a couple of pitches were crushed, but I do at least want to nod to pitching to the conditions with a huge lead and the wind howling in. On paper, Peterson’s results were terrific. He allowed three hits and a walk over 6.2 innings. He was so effective that the Cubs had a second straight day of coming up short on an odd stat. On Monday, the Cubs fell short of a potential 11th walk-off. On Tuesday, Aaron Civale was two outs short of becoming the 11th Cub to record a save. The three-inning save has been one of the more available vectors for the pitching staff to record saves.
This was definitely one of those wins that you hope you can carry some of that offense forward to Wednesday. It would be really nice to notch another series win before that 17-game gauntlet starts. There are definitely going to be some series losses in there. So you just want to bank as much as you can. With any luck, the team will see reinforcements from multiple directions during that gauntlet. They should have some of their own guys getting healthy and they should also trade for some live arms from other teams.
Keep marching on.
Three Positives and Pete:
- David Peterson gets the top spot with 6.2 scoreless innings.
- Dansby Swanson had two singles, drew a walk and scored three runs.
- Ian Happ had a single, drew a walk and was hit by a pitch. He drove in a run and scored another.
- Pete’s appearance here is more than obligatory. He was the star offensively, reaching base five times. Forget any mention of the word slump. As great a season as he is having, Pete added four points to his batting average, seven to his on base, and eight to his slugging percentage. The net result was four points on his wRC+. Always unbelievable.
Game 101, July 21: Cubs 11, Tigers 2 (57-44)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.146). 2-2, 3B, 3 BB, 2 RBI, R
- Hero: Carson Kelly (.121). 1-3, 2 BB, 2 RBI, R
- Sidekick: David Peterson (.110). 6.2 IP, 24 BF, 3 H, BB, 0 R, 4 K (W 2-1)
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Kevin Alcantara (-.035). 0-2
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.013). 2-3, BB, 3 R, SB
- Kid: Justin Dean (.000). 0-1
WPA Note: Dean, Pedro Ramirez and Aaron Civale all registered .000 WPA. Of the three, Dean’s was the most “negative” outcome of the three. While Civale allowed two runs, his job was clearly to eat outs and he did that. Obviously, Dean’s job was largely to give PCA a few innings off. But in these spots, I will make a choice for the last spot.
WPA Play of the Game: Carson Kelly’s two-run single in the first, driving in the first two runs. (.116)
Tigers Play of the Game: Framber Valdez’ strike out of Kevin Alcantara for the second out in the first inning. (.028)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 100 Winner: Ian Happ 38 of 55 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +21
- Carson Kelly +17.5
- Michael Busch +16
- Ben Brown/Alex Bregman +13.5
- Jameson Taillon/Phil Maton -10
- Nico Hoerner -11
- Caleb Thielbar -14
- Dansby Swanson -16
Up Next: The third and final game of the series between the Tigers and Cubs. Colin Rea (7-6, 4.74) starts for the Cubs. Rea is just 2-3 with a 5.00 over his last seven appearances (36 IP). He does have two wins and a quality start over his last three starts. The Tigers start Keider Montero (6-5, 3.22). The 26-year-old Venezuelan hasn’t started a game since June 26. In five July appearances, he is 2-0 with a 2.08 (13 IP). His high pitch count in there is 58. He only threw 43 in his last one. That may help explain the Tigers going to position players for the final two innings. Montero feels unlikely to get deep in this one. Even when he was starting, he topped out at 96 pitches. Last June, the Cubs scored four runs in 5.2 against him. The four runs were four solo homers (Suzuki, Busch, Crow-Armstrong and Shaw).
Unlikely to be easy but go win a series.
