College football has evolved so rapidly over the last several years, and there are an increasing variety of ways to break down any given Saturday.
Here on Scarlet Spreadsheet, we are going to compile all of the various analytical models to get the best possible preview of each of Ohio State’s matchups throughout the 2026 season based on the underlying numbers and metrics.
In a meeting between two historic programs, Ohio State and USC will face off for the first time as members of the Big Ten, with
the Trojans having joined the conference in 2024. The Buckeyes will be debuting a new quarterback with Julian Sayin out for the season, while Lincoln Riley’s group is looking to pick up the pieces after a 24-7 loss to Wisconsin.
While USC is no longer ranked, this road contest on Halloween night will provide a huge test for whoever wins Ohio State’s quarterback battle between Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair.
Football Power Index
Ohio State
- FPI: 28.2 (Rank: 1)
- Proj. W-L: 10.8-2.0
- Win Out %: 30.5
- Win Conf. %: 60.6
- CFP %: 91.3
- Make NC %: 33.1
- Win NC %: 19.4
USC
- FPI: 12.7 (Rank: 25)
- Proj. W-L: 7.7-4.3
- Win Out %: 0.7
- Win Conf. %: 0.2
- CFP %: 4.0
- Make NC %: 0.1
- Win NC %: 0.0
FPI Matchup Predictor: Ohio State 82.8%
SP+
Ohio State
- Rank: No. 1 (no change from last week)
- Rating: 28.6
- Offense: 39.2 (4th)
- Defense: 10.7 (1st)
- Special Teams: 0.1 (62nd)
USC
- Rank: No. 19 (down 2 from last week)
- Rating: 14.2
- Offense: 36.6 (9th)
- Defense: 22.4 (39th)
- Special Teams: -0.1 (89th)
Matchup
Projected Winner: Ohio Sate
- Projected Margin: 11.9 points
- Win Probability: 77%
- Projected Score (rounded): 33-21
- *These projections are not QB adjusted*
Computer Models
Sagarin Rankings
- Ohio State: 95.03 (1st)
- USC: 80.34 (33rd)
The Power Rank
- Ohio State: 26.65 (1st)
- USC: 9.10 (34th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State will beat USC by 14.7 on the road (85% win chance)
Massey Ratings
- Ohio State: 9.23 (1st)
- Offense: 68.59 (2nd)
- Defense: 43.87 (1st)
- USC: 8.40 (20th)
- Offense: 64.96 (11th)
- Defense: 33.16 (41st)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 35, USC 21 (80% win probability)
Advanced Metrics
Prior Meetings
USC owns the all-time series 13-10-1, but Ohio State won the most recent meeting between these two historic programs, which took place in 2017. The Buckeyes defeated the Trojans in the Cotton Bowl that year, 24-7.
Prior to that contest, USC had won the previous seven matchups and eight of the last nine. Ohio State’s last trip to Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum was a 35-3 loss back in 2008.
The Buckeyes have not beaten the Trojans in California since 1974 — a 42-21 win in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State’s last win at the Coliseum was a 21-0 victory in 1946.
This will be the first time that Ohio State and USC face off as Big Ten foes.
As the season goes along the Scarlet Spreadsheet for each Ohio State game will include up-to-date in-season models and analytics, breaking down each matchup down to the numbers and underlying metrics.
