This is the fourth and final of a series of roundtable questions I’m asking the staff here at Peachtree Hoops about the Hawks as we approach the postseason. Today’s two questions:
who will be the x-factor in this series and who wins the Knicks-Hawks series?Who will be the x-factor in this series and why?
Wes: CJ McCollum took a week or two to adapt to the screening-heavy and ball movement-heavy offense here in Atlanta, but his shot creation off the dribble has been key to unlocking a 20-6 record since the All-Star break. I suspect that — just as Jalen
Brunson will have the ball in his hands during crunch time this series — the Hawks may give CJ McCollum ‘four flat’ sets late in games, and he’ll need to get to his spots for the Hawks to pull out close games.
Jackson: Dyson Daniels. In all likelihood, the Knicks will try to hide Brunson on defense by matching him up with Daniels, and it will be up to the Great Barrier Thief to make New York pay by attacking the basket and forcing Brunson to move his feet on that end of the floor. If he’s unable to do so, Daniels’ lack of perimeter shooting could become an easily exploitable vulnerability for the Hawks, especially in a playoff setting, where halfcourt offense comes more into the forefront.
Malik: Onyeka Okongwu. He’s probably going to have the task of guarding Karl-Anthony Towns, and when he and Jalen Brunson start getting into their two-man game, Okongwu will have to make the right decisions on defense. He’ll also play a big part if he’s on the court with Robinson, and his perimeter shooter could lure him out the paint, making it easier for the other Hawks to get to the rim.
Graham: Jonathan Kuminga. If Kuminga absolutely stinks off the bench, I really worry for the Hawks’ bench production in this series – unless Gabe Vincent catches fire and Zaccharie Risacher can be productive (if he even plays). If the Hawks can’t win that battle, I’m not sure they can win this series. Kuminga will have to play and be productive in order for the Hawks to have a chance to win that bench battle.
Hassan: Mouhamed Gueye. With Jock Landale set to miss the majority of the first-round thanks to the ankle injury he suffered against Orlando on April 1st, Gueye will likely get the first shot as the backup ‘5’ against New York, stepping in to guard Karl Towns whenever Okongwu needs a breather or gets into foul trouble. More importantly, he’ll draw the unenviable task of keeping New York’s back up big man, Mitchell Robinson off the glass – which will be one of the most important swing factors in the series.
On a per-possession basis, Robinson is the best offensive rebounder in the NBA, with New York grabbing the rebound on a whopping 40% (!) of their misses in the halfcourt with him on the floor this season per cleaningtheglass. Additionally, Gueye has typically operated at the ‘4’ this season, as – at 6’11”, 210 pounds – he’s struggled to match up against some of the more physically imposing bigs in the league. Lineups featuring Gueye at the ‘5’ ranked in just the 16th percentile in defensive rebounding rate during the regular season, and it’s clear that Gueye is going to have his work cut out for him going up against Robinson.
That said, I’ve had a plot on ‘Mo Gueye island’ ever since his rookie season, and one thing that’s for certain is that he is not going to back down from any matchup – no matter the size difference. Gueye is a freak athlete who ranked in the 93rd percentile in defensive EPM last season and in the 89th percentile this season. He has the agility to guard at the level of the screen and switch out on the perimeter. He posted one of the highest steal rates on the team this season. Robinson is undoubtedly a tough matchup for him, but if Gueye can give the Hawks enough on offense (30.8% from three this season), while holding his own on the defensive end and on the boards, it will significantly boost Atlanta’s chances of pulling off the upset.
The injury to Landale has clearly put Atlanta’s bench unit in a precarious position, and to be perfectly honest, if they had someone better than Gueye or Tony Bradley to step into this role, I’d be all for it. However, given the options on the roster, Gueye is their best bet, and I’m holding out hope that he’ll be able to hold his own against a physical Knicks front line. The Hawks are going to need Gueye to be at his best in this first round series.
Who wins the Knicks-Hawks series and in how many games?
Wes: Five years ago, I said Hawks in six. As we all remember, they ended up winning in five. I trust the Hawks to get the better of the Dyson Daniels on Jalen Brunson matchup and gum up New York’s entire offense. This team is playing connected and inspired basketball once again.
This is purely a vibes call but run it back. Hawks in six.
Jackson: Knicks in seven. The Hawks have many ways they can make life hard for New York, including their stable of strong perimeter defenders to throw at Brunson, as well as the Knicks’ lack of a good defensive matchup for Johnson. However, experience and homecourt advantage count for a lot in the playoffs, as does having a clear go-to option down the stretch of close games — which Atlanta currently does not. Those factors, plus New York’s undeniable advantage around the basket in this matchup, might be too much to overcome for the Hawks, but not after they give the Knicks all they can handle.
Malik: Knicks in six. Not only do I think that Mitchell Robinson will be a problem for the Hawks if Jock Landale doesn’t return in time, but Jalen Brunson always knows how to turn it on when it matters. The Hawks have several players to throw at him, but he still finds a way to get his. I also think Karl-Anthony Towns will make things hard for the Hawks. They’ll definitely put up a fight, but I think the Knicks are the better team and will prevail.
Graham: I look at the season-series numbers and think ‘what is likely to repeat in the playoffs?’ I remember looking at the Knicks-Hawks 2021 series preview and felt confident that Julius Randle was not going to average 37 again in the playoffs, nor Immanuel Quickley likely to replicate his series production from the regular season-series. In short, I thought the Knicks overplayed to their potential in the regular season. Sure enough, neither could replicate those numbers and the Hawks advanced in five games.
But this time I look at the season series averages, and I don’t see the potential for the averages to significantly regress. I think it’s entirely reasonable ‘KAT’ could average nearly 30 points on high efficiency based on how this Hawks’ frontline may be exploited. Brunson could certainly average close to 30 points in this series as he did in the regular season, and possibly more because I he will average a better three-point shooting number than 29% in the season series. The same applies for the Knicks as a whole, who averaged 29% from three against the Hawks in the season series – they were fourth in the NBA with 37.3% per game.
From the Hawks’ side of ‘what is likely to repeat’ in the postseason, Alexander-Walker averaged 28 points per game to lead the Hawks in scoring. That could persist, but the three-point shooting I fear may not – and that’s not exclusive to Alexander-Walker (who shot 45.5% from three on 11 attempts per game in the season series). Okongwu shot 47.8% from three on nearly eight attempts, and Johnson shot 45% from three – I’m just not convinced these averages can persist in the playoffs, and even with these percentages in the regular season the Hawks fell 1-2 in the season series.
Atlanta’s bench production concerns me, as does the potential reliance on CJ McCollum as the ball-handler down the stretch; I just think that’s a very one-sided matchup when you consider Brunson will be doing the same for the Knicks. McCollum has been good for the Hawks, but there is a gap in quality and reliability between those two players in two different stages of their careers. Elsewhere, the offensive rebounding/second chance scoring is obviously a huge worry.
This Hawks group is in completely new territory together in the postseason for the first time while this Knicks group have been battle-tested together — not to mention they also have homecourt. These are factors that can swing games on their own.
In short, there’s too many logical arguments in the Knicks’ favor this time around to overlook, and not many other variables go in the Hawks’ favor. I think the Knicks advance in five games.
Hassan: Knicks in 7. My heart is telling me Atlanta, but my brain is saying New York. I think the lack of firepower off the Hawks bench, New York’s advantage on the glass, and Jalen Brunson’s abilities as a closer prove too much for Atlanta to overcome.
The Knicks had the sixth best clutch record in the NBA this season (21-13) while the Hawks went just 17-18 in clutch games. I think these two teams are more evenly matched than a lot of people think, and Atlanta advancing to the second round isn’t out of the question, however New York’s experience and comfort in close games will put them over the edge.
