Baseball Prospectus has released its PECOTA projections for 2026. PECOTA projects the 2026 Mets to win 88.4 games and come in second place in the National League East, and it puts the Mets’ chances of making the playoffs at 78.3% with a 28.5% chance of winning the division and a 49.8% chance of finishing with an NL Wild Card berth.
As for the rest of the NL East, PECOTA taps the Braves as the likeliest division winners, projecting Atlanta for 92.2 wins and over 90% playoff odds. The top three teams
in the NL East are once again tightly packed with the Phillies projected for 85.1 wins with 58.9% playoff odds. Not surprisingly, there is a large gap between those top three teams and the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals, who are projected for 75.2 and 65.6 wins, respectively.
Taking a deeper dive into what PECOTA likes and doesn’t like about the 2026 Mets, the short answer is that the lineup is headlined by two very good players in Juan Soto (156 DRC+, 5.7 WARP projection—behind only Shohei Ohtani for all hitters) and Francisco Lindor (121 DRC+, 3.7 WARP projection). Going further down the depth chart, PECOTA predicts a bounce back season from Marcus Semien offensively (101 DRC+) and projects above average offensive production from all of Bo Bichette, Francisco Alvarez, Jorge Polanco, and even Mark Vientos. PECOTA also notably thinks Luis Robert Jr. will have a fully healthy season, penciling him in for 535 plate appearances of roughly average output with the bat, which would put him at 2 WARP and would represent a huge upgrade over what the Mets got out of the center field position last year.
On the other hand, PECOTA projects only 14.8 WARP from the Mets’ pitching staff—ten wins less than what it projects from their position players. Though it is quite bullish on the Mets’ bullpen and thinks Devin Williams projects similarly to Edwin Díaz in 2026, PECOTA is not enamored with Nolan McLean, despite his prospect ranking and big league success last year. McLean is projected to throw just 150 innings and put up a 100 DRA- and less than 2 WARP—pretty pedestrian numbers for what the Mets are hoping is a top of the rotation starter. McLean is probably the most obvious candidate to overperform his PECOTA projections. PECOTA does think Freddy Peralta (91 DRA-, 2.8 WARP projection) will have a very Freddy Peralta season—the exact boon to the rotation the Mets hoped for when they traded for him. And it is also intriguingly optimistic about Sean Manaea (90 DRA-, 1.3 WARP projection), but has him down for only 80 innings. PECOTA is less optimistic about the rest of the Mets’ rotation, which it projects as below average outside of Jonah Tong, who PECOTA thinks will make 11 starts with a 91 DRA-.
Both the Mets and the Atlanta Braves had disappointing finishes in 2025. The Mets turned over a significant chunk of their roster in response while the Braves are trusting their core and more or less running it back in 2026—an approach the other major competitor in the division in the Philadelphia Phillies is also taking this season. PECOTA projects a bounce back for both the Mets and the Braves, but a much more significant one for Atlanta, whose position player core outside of the shortstop position PECOTA likes quite a bit, expecting a regression to the mean for many of the Braves’ key players.
