Merry Christmas, Chiefs Kingdom!
Before the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 16 road matchup with the Tennessee Titans, only three of our panelists correctly picked the Titans to win. Still, as a group, we called for Kansas City to lose 17–16. That carried 32 points of error* compared to the game’s 26–9 final score — so even though the group picked correctly, it was our second-worst prediction of the season. Arrowhead Pride’s readers, however, had a better idea of what would happen. Sixty-seven percent thought
Tennessee would win — although just 9% correctly predicted the Titans’ blowout victory .
In Week 17, the Chiefs face the Denver Broncos on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is a 12.5-point underdog.
Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.
Nate Christensen (@natech32)
I expect the Chiefs to show more life this week, but everyone in the organization knows what’s going on. Vacation and a fresh start are two weeks away. This is a short week. I could see Kansas City trying to spoil a rival. But in their current state, they’re too outgunned to beat a team like Denver.
Broncos 23, Chiefs 10
John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)
All season, I’ve remained optimistic about the Chiefs’ chances to pull out wins. Over and over again, I’ve been wrong. So now, one of two things is possible: I’ve given up, or I’m going for the reverse jinx. I couldn’t say which one of those is represented in this prediction.
Broncos 27, Chiefs 10
Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)
This season has unfolded in a way few anticipated — and the Chiefs’ injury list continues to grow. Entering the week with a third-string quarterback against Denver’s top-tier defense leaves Kansas City with limited avenues to compete. So for the Chiefs, the focus shifts to evaluation, giving younger players extended snaps to help clarify the offseason’s roster decisions.
Denver, meanwhile, has everything at stake. With the No. 1 seed and AFC positioning still in play, the Broncos are unlikely to manage minutes or tempo. The matchup is particularly unfavorable for Kansas City’s offense, which lacks both continuity and firepower. Against a disciplined, aggressive Denver defense, short fields and stalled drives could compound quickly.
While there are still questions about Denver’s offense and Bo Nix’s consistency, the Chiefs are unlikely to generate enough pressure or create enough disruptive plays to swing critical downs. In a game played on Christmas, effort should be present — but the talent and health gap is significant.
Broncos 27, Chiefs 9
Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)
With all of this week’s news, it doesn’t even feel like the Chiefs have a game to play. The team just needs to see what they have in some of their young guys who haven’t seen much action.
On the flip side, the Broncos are still looking to get the No. 1 seed and potentially clinch the AFC West. This game shouldn’t be close at all.
Broncos 23, Chiefs 10
Caleb James (@CJScoobs)
For the Chiefs, the outlook for this game is bleak. With third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun slated to start against one of league’s best defenses, I don’t expect many points.
This could be the final home game of Travis Kelce’s Hall of Fame career, and I would expect the Chiefs to try to get him the ball in the end zone at all costs.
With the season nearly over, the Chiefs may actually benefit more from a loss that would secure a better draft position.
Broncos 27, Chiefs 7
Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)
I’m not a firm believer in quarterback Chris Oladokun — but I am a firm believer in the magic of Christmas. And if ever there were a time for a miracle, it’s now.
So like a child who catches his parents moving the elf on the shelf — or eating Santa’s cookies — and chooses to turn a blind eye and believe anyway, I’m going to predict the Chiefs run over the Broncos. Like they’re grandma coming home from my house on Christmas Eve, and the Chiefs’ offensive line is Rudolph and his crew of hoofed hooligans after swiping one too many swigs of eggnog from Santa’s magic flask.
The result will be a blowout so severe that Sean Payton will drop enough F-bombs to land himself on the naughty list for the rest of his days. There’s also a decent chance that after Oladokun throws his second touchdown, Payton goes full Gremlin — runs onto the field and attacks Chiefs players with his bare hands — resulting in his elf card being revoked and getting a lifetime ban from Santa’s workshop, leaving him to wander the hills of Colorado alone and disgraced like some kind of spray-tanned, more annoying Gollum.
Chiefs 55, Broncos 0
Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)
The AFC West is likely to be decided in Week 18, but the Chiefs won’t be part of it. I don’t think there’s much to debate here. The Broncos’ pass rush is going to feast against Kansas City’s deep-backup tackles. Denver’s secondary will leave no room for whatever wideouts the Chiefs can suit up. Third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun is going to hold the ball too long and take multiple deep sacks.
The defense will fight for as long as it can. But the Broncos have mastered attacking the Chiefs’ weak spots on the back end with the always-reliable Courtland Sutton. I’m not a believer in Bo Nix as an elite passer, but I expect him to find his favorite target every time Denver faces third down, especially with the Chiefs likely down both starting cornerbacks.
This will be ugly to watch, so it might be better just to read my live updates on the main page. The only real hope for making this one memorable is if the Chiefs scheme up something fun for Travis Kelce in what could be his final home game. If Kansas City manages a passing touchdown, don’t be surprised if Kelce is throwing it.
Broncos 31, Chiefs 10
Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)
Writing a prediction this week feels silly. We don’t predict preseason games — and those are more fun than this one is likely to be.
With nothing on the line, injuries mounting, and Chris Oladokun starting at quarterback… what’s the best we can hope for? Jalen Royals and Brashard Smith reaching double-digit yardage? Some signs of life from the offensive line — at least in the running game?
Enjoy the holiday time with your loved ones. This game could be ugly.
Broncos 24, Chiefs 6
With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to lose 23-15.
What do you think?
2025 Standings
| TW | LW | Staffer | W | L | Pct | Err |
| 1 | 5 | Jared Sapp | 7 | 8 | 0.4667 | 23.3 |
| 2 | 4 | Mark Gunnels | 7 | 8 | 0.4667 | 24.3 |
| 3 | 1 | Maurice Elston | 7 | 8 | 0.4667 | 24.4 |
| 4 | 6 | Matt Stagner | 7 | 8 | 0.4667 | 28.8 |
| 5 | 2 | Nate Christensen | 6 | 9 | 0.4000 | 24.0 |
| 5 | 3 | Caleb James | 6 | 9 | 0.4000 | 24.0 |
| 7 | 7 | Rocky Magaña | 5 | 10 | 0.3333 | 23.7 |
| 8 | 8 | John Dixon | 5 | 10 | 0.3333 | 26.9 |
In Week 16, Jared Sapp led the panel by predicting the Titans would win 31-14. That pick had only 10 points of error. Matt Stagner’s call for a 21-13 Tennessee victory was second, missing by 18 total points.
*To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.
