The Penguins got to Thanksgiving holiday and the end of November with the fourth best points percentage and similar spot in the division. December didn’t go as smoothly, they leave in seventh place in points, and barely sixth in points%, thanks to a 1-5-4 slump that saw losing every which way you can go.
We’ll bring in the conference at this point, sorting by points% in this instance. The overall point ranking can be seen at left.
(Not pictured: 15th place Toronto and 16th place Columbus)
The Penguins
are towards the bottom, which is a shame because they’re not actually doing that badly in the big scheme of things. Their 39 points in 36 games puts the on track for an 89-point pace on the season, and we’re nearly halfway in! For reference, Pittsburgh tallied 80 points last season, and 89 points would have put them two points away from making the playoffs. Not too many folks out there aside from the terminally optimistic would have envisioned the Pens targeting for a number that high this deep into the year, which deserves a mention.
Unfortunately for them, that kind of pace is not cutting it and really even nothing special this year. Every team in the NHL, except five Western Conference teams, have at least a .500% points% to this point of the year. Even then, no one is under .444% and everyone else is .450%+. (The red dot below in Seattle’s position, so it can be mostly ignored).
The above graph shows a startling grouping of the majority of the league clogging up the middle of the graph of points%. There have been no bottom-dwellers dragging far behind the rest of the pack to this point, and (save Colorado and Dallas) that there are very few breakaway .700+ points% teams racing out either. It’s just a big pack of average to above-average clubs at this point, which is a fairly astounding phenomena w.
One reason for this has been overtime games. And, of course, Unforgiven and The Wire taught us that deserve got nothin’ to do with it, but here’s an interesting outlook of where teams would be if every game played out where a team won if they out-chanced the opponent on a given night.
In a nutshell, this is a large part of the Penguins’ problem in the conference. The Flyers (9), Bruins (11) and especially Islanders (19) have been collecting a lot more points than perhaps they ‘should’ have been expected to. Be it luck, good fortune, incredible timing and game sequences of goals (and saves), they’ve found ways to get results despite the process.
Whether or not these teams can keep performing like this for a full 82 games is anyone’s guess, and a true question that the process vs. results debate has grappled with since advanced stats have been tracked. Some models are not yet believers. (This, for instance, is a good chunk of the reason The Athletic currently projects NYI with a 36% chance at the playoffs, and Philadelphia at 32%, despite those teams statistically being on pace for 97 and 102 points based on simple points per game, respectively. That model is baking in some right-sizing with their results in the second half of the season, though it will swing into believing the longer that either can keep it going).
If you’re inside the Penguins’ room and the hopes still remain to keep pushing forward, the next stretch of games from Christmas to the start of the Olympics (Feb 6 for them) is a six-week stretch where two things will count. One they can control, and one they can’t. For starters, and to state the obvious, Pittsburgh needs more months like October (8-2-2) and less like November (4-5-3) and no more December’s (3-5-4, pending the last two games coming up).
The less controllable aspect that Pittsburgh could really use is fewer overtime games on the out of town scoreboard. That would be one way to help, a team like Philadelphia for instance is 7-7 in games that go beyond 60 minutes. Turning some of those 60 minute ties into 60 minute losses would go a long way towards bringing them back to the pack with a shocking 14 out of their 36 games on the year (almost 40%) going beyond regulation. Similarly, the Islanders are 6-4 in post-regulation games and owe the two-pronged attack of A) getting to OT and then B) getting two points fairly frequently. (Of course, Pittsburgh with a 2-9 OT/SO record could also help their own cause by finding a way to get the victory point more often in their own right, though that of course is a different topic for a different day).
The natural alternative to all of this is that the Penguins might not be a team that keeps up with the pack much longer, as the November and December results are pointing towards perhaps a more true level of team talent and ability. It looked like Buffalo might have been the first team in the East to truly drop way off the pace, until they’ve found a way to reel off seven-straight wins. Needless to say, about now would be a very fortuitous time to string together a long winning streak, just as it would be at just about any time of the season.
If that’s not in the cards, the picture might well be developing by the Olympic break in early February. The Pens will have played 58 games by that point, with only about two weeks to go from resumption of play in late February to the NHL trade deadline this season on March 6th.
There’s been very little separation — especially in the Eastern Conference — however this next six-week sprint to the Olympics will truly be setting the stage for which teams are contenders and the other ones who will have to take an honest look of where they’re at an consider downshifting for the season in terms of positioning themselves at sellers.
