All eight WNBA playoff spots have officially been clinched, with the Dallas Wings claiming the final spot on Tuesday night.
That means we now move into looking at potential playoff matchups, and there might not be a more intriguing playoff team than the Washington Mystics.
The Mystics have seven games remaining on their schedule.
Although they have the same 23-15 record as the New York Liberty, Washington is the current No. 7 seed and New York claims No. 6 due to winning the season series 2-1. The Mystics
are two games behind the Indiana Fever for the No. 5 seed, and two-and-a-half games behind the Atlanta Dream for No. 4. The No. 3-seed Las Vegas Aces and No. 2-seed Golden State Valkyries are only three and four games ahead of Washington, but with only seven games remaining, that’s unlikely ground to make up.
So, all signs point towards the Mystics landing one of the bottom three seeds in the playoffs and likely meeting the Aces, Valkyries or Lynx in the first round. Beggars don’t get to be choosers, but the Mystics should have a preference as to which of these top three seed they should want to see in a first-round series.
Why the Mystics must avoid the the Lynx
It’s no secret that the Lynx are the team to avoid in the WNBA this season.
Washington has actually boasted close games with Minnesota, including a win and a two-point loss, but Napheesa Collier didn’t play in any of the three games between the two teams. Collier, an ethereal talent no matter her matchup, will provide Minnesota much needed support inside the paint against Washington’s pairing of Kiki Iriafen and Shakira Austin. Olivia Miles had no issue scoring the basketball against the Mystics, scoring 20-plus points in each of their meetings, but she would benefit from some ancillary advantage creation from Collier inside.
One of Washington’s win conditions against a Collier-led Lynx team may be winning the 3-point battle, but with such a discrepancy between the two teams ability to shoot the ball, how likely is that to happen? Minnesota is the second-best 3-point shooting team in the WNBA, connecting at a 39 percent clip as a team. They outpace the Mystics shooting by nine percent, which manifests through 10 more points per game from 3-pointers. Who on Washington besides Sonia Citron could catch fire in a big moment?
Washington has patented a tough, bully-ball style of scoring through their post players, but the wear and tear of playoff games could catch up to them.
In a similar vein, the Aces would prove to be a tough matchup for Sydney Johnson’s interior scorers. A’ja Wilson is an eternal 99th-percentile defender, and is the best 1-on-1 interior matchup problem in the history of the league. Some would say that Washington is a nightmare matchup for Vegas because of their interior dominance, but that road runs both ways. As difficult as Austin and Iriafen would make life for Wilson, Wilson will thwart a significant amount of their scoring abilities. And if the Mystics manage to hold an edge over the Aces with their size, are Washington’s guards good enough to keep up with Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray? Washington’s guard play is inconsistent at best, and absent at worst.
Las Vegas, who won the season series with Washington 2-1, probably doesn’t pose as difficult a threat as Minnesota with Collier, but it’s hard to see Johnson and his team hoping for a postseason matchup with the league’s most experienced team. Washington only has three players who have ever played in a postseason game, and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton is their only player who’s been past the first round. The Aces know how to adjust, they know how to fight, and they know how to win playoff games. Washington can’t match that experience.
Why the Mystics can take down the Valkyries
Let’s make one thing clear: regular season numbers would tell you that the Valkyries are a much more potent matchup than the Aces. They are far and away the league’s best defense, and they won two of their three matchups with the Mystics—including one game where they held Washington to just 49 points.
Golden State would absolutely not be an easy matchup for Washington, but they may be the easiest of the top three teams.
Star power is an oft-debated topic, but in playoff basketball, it matters. Scouting becomes much heavier in the postseason, and role players tend to disappear as teams memorize tendencies and sets over a stretch of games, something that becomes absolutely more potent in longer series. It’s the reason that stars end up going bucket-for-bucket at the end of close playoff games. Role players just aren’t as reliable in the postseason.
Last season, Golden State wasn’t able to keep up with the star power of Minnesota. Role player contributions from both teams evened out, and Collier’s dominance was far too much for Veronica Burton, the Valkyries’ lead offensive creator, to match. Golden State’s inability to play through a higher-volume offensive player put them at a huge offensive disadvantage. They lost the first game of that series by 29 points, and the second game by one point.
While Washington has no Napheesa Collier, Citron, Iriafen and Austin are more reliable central scorers than Gabby Williams and Burton. Burton is an efficient player, but she’s not an elite creator for her high on-ball volume. More often than not, Williams and Burton would fall short of replicating the Mystics stars’ scoring pace.
The elephant in the room is obviously Golden State’s all-time defense. Their team defense is incredible, and that showed through in their wins over the Mystics. Washington will have to grind for every basket—just like the Valkyries will.
The deciding factor for Washington’s matchup preference may come down to the fact that Golden State is on a similar plane of experience. Their 2025 series with Minnesota gave them a taste of the postseason, but most of their playoff experience comes from their players’ times with other teams. They haven’t proven yet that they have the offensive synergy to put together big runs in big moments. Neither has Washington, but at least they would be on more even ground compared to a Minnesota or Las Vegas. The Valkyries would rightfully be the favorites in a matchup with Washington, but their advantages seem much smaller than other top seeds.
