The Dallas Cowboys can earn a winning record for the first time in 2025 under head coach Brian Schottenheimer with a win on Sunday at the Denver Broncos. They will go to Denver looking for a road win against the Broncos for the first time in over two decades, but also enter this game with a path to win on both sides of the ball thanks to their 44-22 win versus the Commanders in week seven. The Cowboys passed the Commanders for second place in the NFC East with that win against Dan Quinn’s team, but now
get a Sean Payton Broncos team leading the AFC West at 5-2 ahead of the Chargers and Chiefs. Payton will be looking for his third head-coaching win against the Cowboys in four tries since leaving Dallas’ staff in 2005, the previous two being with the New Orleans Saints.
Payton beat the Cowboys at home with the Saints in his first season 42-17, and won in Arlington 30-27 on Thanksgiving in 2010. Even when the Cowboys beat the Saints to end their undefeated season in the Superdome on a Thursday night in 2009, Payton got the last laugh by winning the Super Bowl with that year’s team. The Cowboys getting this win under Schottenheimer would be big in putting previous road losses at the Bears and Panthers behind them and start a similar run to the playoffs the Broncos are intended on – having gone to the playoffs for the first time under Payton last year.
The Broncos got there by getting better quarterback play out of rookie Bo Nix than many previous Denver QBs before him. So far in 2025 though, Nix and the Broncos offense has not always been consistent, and facing the current Cowboys defense is perhaps not the same “get right” opportunity it was for Matt Eberflus’ defense at the start of the season.
The Cowboys will still want to lean more on their offense and own high-level QB play to put pressure on Nix and the Broncos as opposed to exposing their defense too much on the road, but having momentum on both sides of the ball helps them going to a tough road environment. Will a healthy quadruplet (new term?) of Prescott, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, and the former Bronco Javonte Williams be enough to get a win in week eight though? Let’s take a look at our weekly keys to the game to find out.
The Dallas Cowboys will beat the Denver Broncos if…
they win on third down on offense and defense.
The Cowboys will be without CB Trevon Diggs again this Sunday, after he missed the win against the Commanders with a concussion. In Diggs’ absence, the Cowboys played much more of the man coverage that would actually play to his strengths if/when he’s able to return to the field. They got by instead with DaRon Bland returning an interception for a touchdown, Kaiir Elam and rookie Trikweze Bridges also holding up in coverage, and safety/linebacker Markquese Bell playing well too.
That was against a Commanders team without both starting wide receivers, Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, and later without starting QB Jayden Daniels, and forced to push the ball downfield regularly with the Cowboys taking a 27-15 lead before halftime.
The Broncos will not only be much more patient in their approach in the passing game, but they have the receivers to give this Cowboys defense a much tougher test thanks to Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and Troy Franklin. This trio of receivers along with former Giant Evan Engram helped the Broncos go from scoreless through three quarters against the Giants last week to a historic 33-point quarter that saw them win by one. Even still, the Broncos went just 4-13 on third down on the game. The previous week in London against the Jets, the Broncos were 5-15 on third down in a 13-11 win. They are a bottom ten team in converting third downs this season, but also top ten in avoiding overall attempts.
If the Cowboys have truly fixed their big-play woes on defense and are able to force the Broncos into the style of offense they want to play anyway with more run-after-the-catch situations, they will need to emphasize getting off the field on third down. Just like every sack or takeaway created by this defense feels massive right now given how the Cowboys offense can score on nearly every drive, third down stops to get the ball back on the road or hold Denver to field goal attempts will be crucial too.
The Broncos made their comeback against the Giants mostly by attacking a prevent style defense that also cost the Giants against the Cowboys. Whether or not they can do so while converting third downs as well to keep the ball away from the Cowboys will come down to how Dallas stays in manageable third downs themselves on offense, and picks their times to throw downfield to Lamb and Pickens between them.
If the Broncos are in more obvious passing downs against the Cowboys as opposed to the Giants, the opportunities should be there for Jadeveon Clowney, James Houston, and even Dante Fowler to make an impact in pass rush. Garret Boles and Mike McGlinchey are not known for their ability to deal with speed off the edge as the starting tackle bookends for Denver. The Broncos also started third-year undrafted free agent Alex Palczewski at left guard against the Giants, a potential matchup for Osa Odighizuwa and Solomon Thomas to win on the interior for the Cowboys to get the Broncos out of sync offensively.
The Dallas Cowboys will lose to the Denver Broncos if…
they can’t spread the ball around to both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
The Cowboys have two bonafide alphas at wide receiver right now, and for the first time in forever, that’s proven to be a very good thing. The Cowboys had both Lamb and Pickens on the field together for the first time since week three at the Bears in the big win against the Commanders. This was also the first time since before then in week two that both receivers started and finished a full game together, because it was the Bears loss where Lamb was injured early on a handoff. Just like their other ugly road loss in this stretch at the Panthers, the Cowboys fell behind and didn’t have enough firepower with just Pickens or Jake Ferguson at tight end to win either time. The only game the Cowboys won without Lamb was at the lowly Jets. It goes without saying winning in Denver is an entirely different challenge for the Cowboys this week, looking to hand the Broncos their first home loss of 2025 in the process. To get it, they’ll absolutely need both Lamb and Pickens to consistently make plays.
The Broncos defense with Patrick Surtain at cornerback will make this interesting, as he’s good enough to eliminate a receiver from being the primary option by himself in man coverage on most snaps. Surtain has mostly been paired with Riley Moss this season, another tough man coverage cornerback that will make getting off the line of scrimmage hard for either Lamb or Pickens. Dak Prescott having nowhere to throw and looking nowhere close to the QB he’s proven capable of again this season against the Broncos is unfortunately what his record against this team would suggest. His two previous losses to the Broncos, one on the road and one at home, were both decisive and very bad days at the office for the offense as a whole.
The offense the Cowboys are taking to Denver this time is simply too talented to suffer a similar fate, so long as Prescott plays the point guard position well and facilitates the ball. Denver will be without Dre Greenlaw at linebacker and have allowed the highest yards per carry of any defense this season. The matchups will be there for Jake Ferguson and Javonte Williams to also have big days if both Lamb and Pickens are struggling, but winning on the outside is the key, and that’s where #88 and #3 have to keep momentum going for the Cowboys. The Giants only had one singular catch by a wide receiver in their loss last week at the Broncos, and still managed to score 32 points and lead by as many as 19 in the second half. The idea of either Pickens, Lamb, or even the Cowboys third receiver being held to one catch individually is a lot harder to imagine, and turning these big plays out wide into points will be what the Cowboys need to upset the Broncos.
Brandon Aubrey kicking field goals in the thin air of Denver is also something the Cowboys have going for them on Sunday, but this game will be won and lost with the types of touchdown plays both Lamb and Pickens are capable of. The Broncos current four-game winning streak is impressive, but with two wins being against the same Giants and Jets teams the Cowboys also beat by scoring 40 and 37 points, this week eight meeting stands to be one of the most evenly matched Cowboys-Broncos tilts in a long time.
