It is prospect list season! The Royals have a few names that rank highly on lists, providing reasons for optimism. But despite signs of improvement, it is clear that the team still needs more progress to become a sustainable winner.
Baseball America is the gold standard of prospect lists, release their 2026 update last week. They are quite high on Royals catcher Carter Jensen, ranking him #11 among all prospects. Other than Bobby Witt Jr.’s #3 ranking in 2022, it is the highest a Royals prospect has
ranked in a Baseball America preseason ranking in the last dozen years. Jensen hit .290/.377/.501 with 20 home runs in 111 games across Double-A and Triple-A, then joined the Royals in September and impressed, hitting .300/.391/.550 with three home runs in 20 games.
Pitcher Kendry Chourio also broke into the top 100 prospect list at #82, after being aggressively promoted this year. He went from the Dominican Summer League, to the Arizona Complex League, finishing with six starts at Low-A Columbia, all at age 17. With the Fireflies, he posted a 5.16 ERA but with 24 strikeouts and just 4 walks in 22.2 innings. The publication singles him out as a prospect who could be a riser this year, writing he “blends now stuff with uncommon poise into a skill set,” and that a strong season could give him “a case as the sport’s best pitching prospect.”
Just missing the top 100 prospect list was pitcher David Shields, who also impressed this year at a very young age. The 18-year-old left-hander posted a sensational 2.01 ERA with 81 strikeouts and just 15 walks in 71.2 innings. In their article about the prospects that just missed, Josh Norris writes that he “doesn’t have the kind of blow-away stuff as some of the other pitchers in the minors, but his pitchability and command should help him become a mid-rotation starter in a few years.”
MLB Pipeline also came out with their prospect list last week, with Jensen ranked #18 and former first-round pick Blake Mitchell ranked #75. Mitchell had a tough start to his 2025 season, suffering a wrist injury in spring training that kept him out for the first half of the season. When he returned, he continued to show a very patient eye at the plate, but his power was sapped as it often is for players returning from wrist injuries. The 20-year-old catcher hit .207/.372/.296 with two home runs in 49 games for High-A Quad Cities. Mitchell was ranked #48 by the publication last year, and was ranked #75 by Baseball America last year before falling off their list this season.
Keith Law has high praise for Jensen, ranking him #10 overall. He writes the 22-year-old is a “legit Rookie of the Year candidate this year as a true catcher who could hit 20 homers with a strong OBP, and with 3-plus WAR potential right away thanks to the defense and positional adjustment.” He ranks Mitchell #56, despite what he calls a “lost year.” Law believes Mitchell is “the best defensive catcher in the Royals’ system, a plus receiver and framer with at least a 60 arm, and has the raw power to be a regular at the position even if he doesn’t hit for a high average.” He also ranks Chourio #61, writing that although there are injury concerns when a pitcher his age throws so hard, he is “everything you’d want to see in a young pitching prospect, including the potential upside of 80 command.”
Kiley McDaniel at ESPN had Jensen as the only Royals prospect in his top 100 list at #25, but he ranked Kendry Chourio (#124), Josh Hammond (#132), and Blake Mitchell (#143) in his 101-200 list. He had high praise for Chourio, writing the right-hander “has the elements to become a front-line starter I’m looking for: enough velocity, plenty of command, the potential for three above-average pitch shapes and surface number performance.” But he adds that the right-hander needs to tweak his “breaking ball shapes.” Curiously omitted from the ranking is Shields.
As for the overall state of the Royals’ farm system, they still seem to rank in the bottom third. McDaniel ranks them #24, praising top prospects Jensen and Chourio and their draft picks of Hammond and pitcher Michael Lombardi. But he writes, “the rest of the system is made up of mostly role players and higher-variance types.”
Jon Hoefling of USA Today came out with a farm system ranking last week, putting the Royals at #26, writing, “they might have a dry spell of great prospects coming to the big leagues for a few years. However, in his top five list of Royals prospects, he omits Chourio or Shields, instead listing Jensen, Mitchell, 2025 first-round picks Sean Gamble and Josh Hammond, and 19-year-old shortstop Yandel Ricardo.
MLB Pipeline last August ranked the Royals #26, although they write the Royals had “one of the most interesting and dynamic international classes of 2025” that netted Chourio. A recent MLB Pipeline poll of executives regarding relative strengths of farm systems did not mention the Royals at all. Kiley McDaniel at ESPN ranked the Royals #27 last August, writing, “Hammond and Gamble could be the high-end prospects needed to pull this system out of the bottom third of the league.”
Prospects1500 ranked the Royals #26 at the end of last season, writing that if “Kendry Chourio continues his breakout and Blake Mitchell can bounce back after an injury-filled 2025, the top of this system could look stronger this time next year. Fangraphs has farm system rankings based on Future Value metrics of top prospects in each system, ranking the Royals 28th.
The Royals are one of six clubs to place just two prospects on the Baseball America list, with the Diamondbacks, Braves, Cubs, Phillies, and Rangers. Three clubs – the Rockies, Angels, and Padres – have just one prospect, and the Astros have none.
You could argue that the Royals’ farm system ranking is low because they graduated players to the big league roster. But that isn’t quite accurate. Jac Caglianone has graduated from lists, but other homegrown players have been in the big leagues for a significant amount of time – Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Maikel Garcia have all spent at least three full seasons in the big leagues. Noah Cameron and Freddy Fermin are the only significant players who have debuted in the last three seasons. Besides, a successful small market team needs to continually produce prospects to build a sustainable winner. Having a farm system that has dry spells will lead to a thin roster.
But there is reason to think things are turning a corner for the Royals. They have taken a more data-driven approach since J.J. Picollo took the helm, and have been more aggressive in spending in the international market, landing top prospects like Ricardo, Chourio, and shortstop Warren Calcaño. Scouting director Brian Bridges took over after the 2023 season, and his first two draft classes have an intriguing mix of prospects that includes Caglianone, Shields, Gamble, Hammond, and pitcher Drew Beam.
Still, the Royals have a long way to go before they are even close to the top farm systems in baseball. And unlike the free agent market, the financial disparities haven’t made it impossible for small-market teams to compete for prospects. The Guardians are tied for the most prospects on Baseball America’s list with six, with the Brewers and Marlins close behind at five. Kiley McDaniel tweeted that the Brewers will rank #1 when he comes out with his overall farm system rankings.
Until the Royals can consistently produce impact talent year after year, and not just rely on the occasional standout prospect, the farm will remain closer to the bottom than the top of industry rankings. Progress is evident, but sustainability remains the real test.
