San Antonio has officially wrapped up the first round, winning its first playoff series since 2017. Naturally, now all eyes look ahead in a “hurry up and wait” situation, as the 3-6 matchup plays out between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets.
Regardless of how things play out, San Antonio sits in a position of advantage. Minnesota, who previously held a 3-1 lead (now 3-2), is the most likely winner. However, they are now beyond short-handed in the backcourt. Star shooting guard Anthony
Edwards hyperextended his knee in Game 3, resulting in a bone bruise and hyperextended knee, while in the same game, Donte DiVincenzo tore his Achilles tendon. And now Bones Hyland is also questionable with left knee soreness.
This has left Ayo Dosunmu and Mike Conley to fill in the gaps. And while they certainly can and have managed against an also-hobbled Denver team — Dosunmu scored 43 points in game 3 and is averaging 21.8 points in the series — matching up against a defense fronted by Stephon Castle and backed by Victor Wembanyama is a whole other story. The Timberwolves were already short on playmaking this year until trading for Dosunmu at the deadline, and with Conley on the last sunsets of his career, it’s hard to imagine where the guard play will come from for the Timberwolves.
On the other side of things, Denver isn’t looking much better. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic appears to have lost his jumper, averaging 19.4 percent from long range in the playoffs. This has completely stunted Denver’s offense, as they struggle to find scoring, averaging 108.7 points per 100 possessions: an offensive rating that would rank only slightly better than the worst offensive rating in the league this regular season.
Minnesota’s defense is no slouch, ranking eighth in regular-season defensive rating. Now imagine that same struggling Nuggets offense against the third-best regular-season defense, anchored by the Defensive Player of the Year. It wouldn’t be a great time for the hoopers from Mile High.
Defensively, the Nuggets are also struggling. They finished 21st in regular-season defensive rating. This combined with the fact that Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson, the Nuggets’ best defenders, are questionable and out with injuries, does not bode well for them.
Looking at how they all stack up, it wouldn’t be surprising if it went to 7 games. These two teams have a history, and as their rivalry writes another chapter, it’s a total toss-up as to who will win the honor of traveling to San Antonio for their next challenge.
Profiling both of these potential opponents only highlights why the Spurs need to capitalize on this run as best they can right now. When looking at legacies in the NBA, the term “championship window” is often brought up. It’s an apt metaphor because a window can be opened and closed so easily and often can be shuttered by luck.
Denver was a championship team only three seasons ago but hasn’t been back to even the Conference Finals since. Conversely, Minnesota is a team that has been to the Conference Finals in the last two consecutive seasons. And while that is the best playoff success of the franchise’s history, they haven’t managed to get over the hump to the last round.
There are dozens of similar stories; the overall message is that winning is hard, and if a team finds itself in a position to do so, it needs to make the most of it. Nothing is given, but at the current moment, the Spurs look to have a definitive advantage in the second round.
