The Buffalo Bills are coming off a Monday night win, 37-34 in overtime, over the Los Angeles Rams, and will play the second game in a row on the West Coast, this time against the up-and-coming Las Vegas Raiders. The Bills are listed as 5-point favorites, but the Raiders have the one player the Bills’ back seven has the most reason to fear: Brock Bowers.
Here’s the big picture. Buffalo’s offense leads the league in scoring (32.8 points per game) and yards per play (6.7) and converts 50% of its third
downs (26 of 52, second in the NFL), per Sharp Football. The Raiders’ defense allows 6.1 yards per play (28th) and has allowed 3.0 points per drive since Week 3 (30th). On the other side, Buffalo allows 28.2 points per game (28th), 21.8 passing points per game (31st), and a 6.5% touchdown rate (26th), and it has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of five games. Kirk Cousins is second in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes, and Bowers has 24 catches for 312 yards and three touchdowns in the three games since he returned from a meniscus procedure. A lot of players are banged up. Who needs to step up in Vegas to get the Bills to 5-1 before the bye?
Heroes
QB Josh Allen: MVP football with no No. 1 receiver
DJ Moore didn’t play. Josh Palmer was out. The wide receivers who did suit up barely beat anybody: Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Skyler Bell combined for four catches on seven targets, and 57 of their 87 yards came on one Shakir play in overtime. Take that one away and the group had three catches for 30 yards.
Josh Allen found other ways, though. The running backs caught six passes for 110 yards, more than half of his 210 passing yards, with Ty Johnson going 4-for-4 for 72. Buffalo ran 37 times for 234 yards (6.3 per carry) and three touchdowns. Allen added 10 carries for 121 yards and a score, and his 28.6% scramble rate was the second-highest of his career, per Sharp. The Bills had a season-low 146 team air yards and a season-low 49.1% dropback rate, and still scored 37 points against a defense that ranked third in EPA per play against the pass entering the night.
We saw this last season, when the offense didn’t have a true No. 1 receiver, and we saw it again Monday with Moore on the sideline. Run the ball, use the backs, move the chains, and let the quarterback make the plays the receivers aren’t making. Allen finished with 331 total yards, two touchdowns, and the first overtime win of his career. If you’re building an MVP case, this is the game I’d put in the file.
The Raiders are a good place for the formula to keep working. WalterFootball ranks their defense 24th in dropback EPA and 26th in dropback success rate. They have allowed 10 passing touchdowns in their last three games, and they have already given up rushing production to Malik Willis (39 yards and a touchdown), Tyler Shough (36), and Drake Maye (25 and a score). Moore and Palmer could both be out again. Allen’s arm doesn’t have to be the whole answer.
OT Dion Dawkins: the Bills need his best version again to keep Crosby and Koonce off Allen
I’ve been critical of him. Dion Dawkins bounced back at the right time. After a rough game against New England, with a sack allowed, a play that could have been a safety, and two penalties, PFF graded him 86.9 against the Rams, second-best on the team, with Alec Anderson third at 79.1. Aaron Donald graded 49.3 in the same game, per PFF, and Los Angeles finished with one sack and one quarterback hit on Allen. That is the kind of night this line has to repeat on Sunday.
Las Vegas certainly can rush the passer. Maxx Crosby has 36 pressures this season, tied for third in the NFL, and Malcolm Koonce has 16 pressures on 100 pass-rush snaps through Week 5. Crosby has only a half-sack in his last four games but 22 pressures over that stretch, so the production is coming. The Raiders rush four on 76.6% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league, and their pressure rate jumps to 63.4% when they blitz, the highest in the NFL, per TruMedia.
Crosby has lined up across from the right tackle on 78.6% of his snaps, per Next Gen Stats, so Spencer Brown will see most of him. Brown left Week 5 after 15 snaps with a back injury, but practiced fully on Thursday and Friday and will play. Koonce is on the other side, which is Dawkins’ side, and the Raiders move Crosby around enough that the left tackle will see him too.
With Moore and Palmer both questionable, Buffalo’s plan is the same one that worked Monday: run the ball, protect Allen and let him extend plays. Every one of those starts with the line. If Dawkins plays like he did against the Rams, Crosby and Koonce don’t get to Allen often. If he doesn’t, Allen is back to saving the offense on his own and could be in trouble.
Head Scratchers
RB James Cook: hate to have him there, but the fumbles must stop
Jimbo is playing excellent football. He has 532 rushing yards through five games (third in the NFL) at 5.6 yards per carry with five touchdowns, he ran for 111 yards and two scores on 25 carries Monday, and he has been the NFL’s leading rusher since the start of 2025. Buffalo leads the league in runs of 10 or more yards (19.0% of carries), and the Raiders have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs. Cook should be a huge part of this game plan.
Here’s why James Cook is on this list, though. He fumbled twice against the Rams and has four fumbles in five games, the most in the NFL, and 11 since the start of 2025, the most of any non-quarterback, per ESPN. He lost one two minutes into overtime with the Bills in field-goal range, and only Rousseau’s block kept it from costing them the game. Joe Brady took the ball out of his hands in the closing moments and warned him afterward that “the carries are gonna decrease” if it doesn’t improve.
That is the head-scratcher, and it’s the only reason he’s here. If the fumbles continue, Buffalo won’t be able to use him as much as it wants to or needs to, and the carries go to Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. The offense is better with Cook on the field. He has to eliminate the problem for that to stay true.
S C.J. Gardner-Johnson: Bowers and Mayer are coming for the whole back seven
C.J. Gardner-Johnson graded 29.3 at PFF against the Rams, second-lowest on the team, after giving up multiple big plays, including a touchdown. He is the name on this list, but the problem is bigger than him. Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, Gardner-Johnson, Cole Bishop, and Damar Hamlin have been shaky in coverage, and the communication bothers me even more than the individual grades. When a Linebacker and a Safety pass a receiver between them and nobody takes him, a good offense turns that into a first down. Monday is what that costs: Matthew Stafford went 40-of-54 for 383 yards and three touchdowns, Puka Nacua caught 17 passes on 24 targets, and Tyler Higbee caught five of his six targets for 83 yards.
Sunday’s test is a different animal. Bowers has a touchdown in all three of his games and 100 yards in two of them, including eight catches on 10 targets for 110 yards in the 45-17 loss in New England. Michael Mayer, the second Tight End, has 21 catches and is the Raiders’ third-leading receiver, and Klint Kubiak’s offense is expected to run two-tight-end sets regularly. Tre Tucker, their top Wide Receiver, is fourth on the team with 19 catches. This offense goes through the middle of the field, and the middle of the field is where Bernard, Williams, Gardner-Johnson, Bishop, and Hamlin live.
Buffalo has allowed 300 yards to Tight Ends in five games, the 10th-most in the NFL, per Pro Football Reference, and the group it has faced is Dalton Schultz, Sam LaPorta, and Hunter Henry. Jim Leonhard called Bowers a problem this week and said the whole plan for the Raiders’ offense has to start with him. If there is a blown assignment, Bowers will make the Bills pay for it.
Honorable Mentions
Trending Up:
- OLB Greg Rousseau: He blocked the 48-yard field goal in overtime that kept Buffalo alive, the first overtime field goal block in the NFL since T.J. Watt in 2018, and was named AFC Special Teams Player of the Week. This defense has needed a player who changes games on his own for a long time, and Groot is becoming that player.
- RB Ty Johnson: Four targets, four catches, 72 yards and a 78.5 PFF grade, fifth on the team. The matchup is harder than the performance suggests: Las Vegas has allowed the seventh-fewest catches and eighth-fewest receiving yards to running backs, per RotoBaller.
- CB Christian Benford: His 76.3 PFF grade was the second-best among Bills defenders with at least 10 snaps. With Tucker fourth on the Raiders in catches, Leonhard can trust Benford on the outside and put his help where Bowers is.
- OL Alec Anderson: A 79.1 at PFF, third on the team, and a big reason Buffalo ran for 234 yards on a night the receivers could not help.
Trending Down:
- CB Maxwell Hairston: A 28.6 at PFF, the lowest on the team, in just 17 snaps. Both of his targets were caught, for 32 yards, one week after Romeo Doubs scored twice on him in New England. Noah Igbinosun has already surpassed him in the depth chart.
- LB Terrel Bernard: A 39.9 at PFF, fourth-lowest on the team. He will be asked to run with Bowers and Mayer in the middle of the field. Kaleb Elarms-Orr graded 90.3 at PFF in limited snaps against the Rams, and I made the case last week for giving him more. Nothing from Monday changed my mind.
- LB Dorian Williams: Last season PFF gave him a 47.0 coverage grade, 61st among 88 qualified Linebackers, and he allowed a 123.9 passer rating when targeted. He finished Monday with one solo tackle and eight assists. He’ll be tested in coverage this Sunday.
Final Thoughts
Buffalo’s offense will score on Sunday. Las Vegas allows 6.1 yards per play and has given up 3.0 points per drive since Week 3, and the Bills just put up 37 on the Rams without DJ Moore or Josh Palmer. Allen, Cook, and the line aren’t what worry me.
The back seven does. Bowers has scored in every game he has played, Mayer lines up next to him in two-tight-end sets, and Bernard, Williams, Gardner-Johnson, Bishop, and Hamlin are the ones who have to cover them. Cousins is second in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes, and Buffalo has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of five games. That group decides how close this game gets.
Who do you want on Bowers on third down: a Linebacker, a Safety or a Cornerback? Let me know in the comments!
Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of Leading the Charge!
